Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I don't deliberately set out to knock <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a></strong>; just that the newsflow/headlines speak volumes.</li>
<li>Apparently, after months of negotiation, Blackstone has walked away from a proposed tie-up with NWD. Reportedly other investors are still in the mix. </li>
<li>Any bailout, should one occur, which has been rumoured for, like, forever, is potentially less dilutive at today's share price. It'd still be a bold move to load up here.</li>
</ul>


I don't deliberately set out to knock New World Development (17 HK); just that the newsflow/headlines speak volumes.
Apparently, after months of negotiation, Blackstone has walked away from a proposed tie-up with NWD. Reportedly other investors are still in the mix. 
Any bailout, should one occur, which has been rumoured for, like, forever, is potentially less dilutive at today's share price. It'd still be a bold move to load up here.


Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May 22-28, 2026

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The recent debt exchange merely deferred a massive 2028 maturity wall, leaving new bondholders structurally subordinated to commercial banks claiming the Victoria Dockside assets.</li>
<li>Grappling with a structural funding gap exceeding HKD 8 billion annually, management is accelerating a desperate HKD 27 billion asset fire-sale to restore positive cash flow.</li>
<li>The Iran conflict guarantees a "higher-for-longer" HIBOR environment, systematically destroying going-concern equity value and exposing the capital stack to severe liquidation haircuts.</li>
</ul>


The recent debt exchange merely deferred a massive 2028 maturity wall, leaving new bondholders structurally subordinated to commercial banks claiming the Victoria Dockside assets.
Grappling with a structural funding gap exceeding HKD 8 billion annually, management is accelerating a desperate HKD 27 billion asset fire-sale to restore positive cash flow.
The Iran conflict guarantees a "higher-for-longer" HIBOR environment, systematically destroying going-concern equity value and exposing the capital stack to severe liquidation haircuts.


NWD 17 HK: The 2028 Maturity Wall, Victoria Dockside's Debt Trap, and the Iran Macro Shock

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>NWD's H1/25-26 results remained weak, weighed down by the decline in the property development segment on account of lower property deliveries.</li>
<li>This was partly offset by slight earnings growth from the property investment segment.</li>
<li>Core operating profit (excluding one-off items) decreased 18% y-o-y.</li>
</ul>


NWD's H1/25-26 results remained weak, weighed down by the decline in the property development segment on account of lower property deliveries.
This was partly offset by slight earnings growth from the property investment segment.
Core operating profit (excluding one-off items) decreased 18% y-o-y.


New World Development - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2025-26 Results - Lucror Analytics

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from the Foo Family, the largest shareholder, at HK$8.50 (HK$7.50 cash + HK$1.00 special dividend), a 62.8% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (&lt;10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate facilitates the vote. </li>
</ul>



Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) announced a privatisation offer from the Foo Family, the largest shareholder, at HK$8.50 (HK$7.50 cash + HK$1.00 special dividend), a 62.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (&lt;10% of independent shareholders rejection) and a headcount test. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate facilitates the vote. 


Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

Hong Kong

New World Development is a Hong Kong-based conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and investment, hotels, infrastructure and services, and department stores in Greater China, particularly the Greater Bay Area. Its portfolio includes residential, retail, office, and industrial properties, as well as hotel operations and various infrastructure projects. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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New World Development (17 HK)

NWD (17 HK): Edging Towards A Bailout

I'd still avoid NWD. There was a time when Beijing might have arranged help for a distressed HK tycoon. Hong Kong developers no longer carry the...

David Blennerhassett

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May 22-28, 2026

This note is a weekly (May 22-28, 2026; select weeks on SK) curation by Real Estate Foresight (REF) of Chinese news articles and company...

Robert Ciemniak

NWD 17 HK: The 2028 Maturity Wall, Victoria Dockside's Debt Trap, and the Iran Macro Shock

With a detail analysis on NWD maturity, we think bondholders are structurally subordinated to banks claiming the Victoria assets. There is massive...

Jacob Cheng

New World Development - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2025-26 Results - Lucror Analytics

NWD's H1/25-26 results remained weak, weighed down by the decline in the property development segment on account of lower property deliveries.

Lucror Analytics

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Foo Family’s Offer at HK$8.50

While the offer is light compared to peer multiples, it is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. A low AGM minority participation rate...

Arun George

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