Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>0.052x P/B! That's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a>'s current trailing  P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.</li>
<li>
What's new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.</li>
<li>NWD's 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.</li>
</ul>


0.052x P/B! That's New World Development (17 HK)'s current trailing  P/B ratio; roughly a quarter of the next comparable real estate peer.

What's new? The latest decline followed an announcement on the 30th May that it would defer payments on its perpetual bonds.
NWD's 6.15% and 4.8% perpetuals fell to 23 cents and 15.5 cents on the dollar on 2nd June, suggesting the market is pricing in the possibility of a bust.


Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>US President Donald Trump has announced a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US, as well as additional reciprocal duties on c. 60 nations.</li>
<li>Vietnam faces one of the steepest tariff increases at 46%, while China will be subject to an additional tariff hike of 34% (on top of an existing 20% duty tied to fentanyl trafficking).</li>
<li>Meanwhile, India, South Korea and Japan have been hit with tariffs of 26%, 25% and 24%, respectively. </li>
</ul>


US President Donald Trump has announced a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US, as well as additional reciprocal duties on c. 60 nations.
Vietnam faces one of the steepest tariff increases at 46%, while China will be subject to an additional tariff hike of 34% (on top of an existing 20% duty tied to fentanyl trafficking).
Meanwhile, India, South Korea and Japan have been hit with tariffs of 26%, 25% and 24%, respectively. 


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development</li>
<li>In the US, the February final demand PPI came in lower than expected at 0.0% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.6% revised p) and 3.2% y-o-y (3.3% e / 3.7% revised p). PPI excluding food and energy fell 0.1% m-o-m, but was up 3.4% y-o-y (3.5% e / 3.8% revised p).</li>
<li>The PPI was weighed down by a 1% decline in trade services. That said, categories that go into the PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) were largely firmer, which could contribute to a high PCE print (vs. the CPI) later this month.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development
In the US, the February final demand PPI came in lower than expected at 0.0% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.6% revised p) and 3.2% y-o-y (3.3% e / 3.7% revised p). PPI excluding food and energy fell 0.1% m-o-m, but was up 3.4% y-o-y (3.5% e / 3.8% revised p).
The PPI was weighed down by a 1% decline in trade services. That said, categories that go into the PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) were largely firmer, which could contribute to a high PCE print (vs. the CPI) later this month.


<ul>
<li>New World Development's (NWD) H1/24-25 results were weak.</li>
<li>The company reported another large net loss of HKD 6.6 bn (after a HKD 19.7 bn loss in FY 2023-24), mainly driven by impairment losses.</li>
<li>Moreover, the underlying business performance remained soft, as operating profit (excluding one-off items) fell 18% y-o-y.</li>
</ul>


New World Development's (NWD) H1/24-25 results were weak.
The company reported another large net loss of HKD 6.6 bn (after a HKD 19.7 bn loss in FY 2023-24), mainly driven by impairment losses.
Moreover, the underlying business performance remained soft, as operating profit (excluding one-off items) fell 18% y-o-y.


New World Development - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
0.08x P/B. That's where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.</li>
<li>
So, what's going on? Announcing an expected <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0830/2024083003082.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 </a>last week didn't help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.</li>
<li>Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers. </li>
</ul>



0.08x P/B. That's where New World Development (17 HK) is currently trading. Less than half the P/B of the next comparable real estate peer.

So, what's going on? Announcing an expected HK$19-20bn loss for FY24 last week didn't help matters. Shares are down 14% this week and 85% since Covid.
Landlords need to drastically cut rents to jumpstart the retail sector. That translates to further impairment losses for property developers. 


Hong Kong

New World Development Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties, provides contracting services, property management, and transportation services.  The Company also operates infrastructure business, telecommunication services, department stores, hotels and restaurants, and media and technology business.

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New World Development (17 HK)

NWD (17 HK): Markets Pricing In A Bust

0.05x P/B says it all. Conversely, NWD is so beaten up here, it's probably worth a punt if you think it will be rescued and/or perpetually supported.

David Blennerhassett

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US President Donald Trump has announced a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US, as well as additional reciprocal duties on c. 60 nations.

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development

Lucror Analytics

New World Development - Earnings Flash - H1 FY 2024-25 Results - Lucror Analytics

New World Development's (NWD) H1/24-25 results were weak. The company reported another large net loss of HKD 6.6 bn (after a HKD 19.7 bn loss...

Lucror Analytics

We Need To Talk About New World (17 HK)

Avoid NWD. Landlords need to materially reduce rents to kickstart the retail sector. That translates to more impairment losses. And further woes...

David Blennerhassett

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