Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

<ul>
<li>In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.</li>
<li>After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.</li>
</ul>


In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.


Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 17 October, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News Corp (NWS AU)</a></strong> announced it had begun exploring a potential combination with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fox-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36135:1" rel="noopener">Fox Corporation (FOXA US)</a></strong>.</li>
<li>A merger of two parts of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire would combine Fox News and TMZ assets with NWS’ newspaper and online news operations.</li>
<li>Murdoch split his empire in 2013, placing the print business in a newly created NWS, and the TV and entertainment under Fox,</li>
</ul>


Back on the 17 October, News Corp (NWS AU) announced it had begun exploring a potential combination with Fox Corporation (FOXA US).
A merger of two parts of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire would combine Fox News and TMZ assets with NWS’ newspaper and online news operations.
Murdoch split his empire in 2013, placing the print business in a newly created NWS, and the TV and entertainment under Fox,


News Corp (NWS AU)'s Proposed Merger With Fox Corp. Again.

<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
</div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>A change of pace with two infrequently discussed stubs in unwind territory:<br><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp-class-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5990:1" rel="noopener">News Corp (NWSA US)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">  / </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rea-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1" rel="noopener">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a>, and<br><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a>.</p>
<p><em>and ...</em></p>
<p>two lesser-known stubs in set-up territory:<br><br><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iljin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11265:1" rel="noopener">Iljin Holdings (015860 KS)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iljin-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4098:1" rel="noopener">Iljin Electric (103590 KS)</a>, and<br><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sakata-inx-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19446:1" rel="noopener">Sakata Inx Corp (4633 JP)</a>  / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13244:1" rel="noopener">Siix Corp (7613 JP)</a>.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>Preceding my comments on these holding company relationships<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener"></a> are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


This week in StubWorld ...



A change of pace with two infrequently discussed stubs in unwind territory: 
News Corp (NWSA US)  / REA Group Ltd (REA AU), and Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) / Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP).
and ...
two lesser-known stubs in set-up territory:  Iljin Holdings (015860 KS) / Iljin Electric (103590 KS), and Sakata Inx Corp (4633 JP)  / Siix Corp (7613 JP).



Preceding my comments on these holding company relationships are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: News Corp/REA Group, Jafco/Nomura Research, Iljin Holdings/Iljin Electric, Sakata/SIIX

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<p>Ongoing market dynamics continue to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Communications and Transportation: Broadcasting, Movies, Entertainment, Programming, Small-Cap, Publishing, Small-Cap, and Shipping, Dry-Bulk.</p>

Ongoing market dynamics continue to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Communications and Transportation: Broadcasting, Movies, Entertainment, Programming, Small-Cap, Publishing, Small-Cap, and Shipping, Dry-Bulk.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Communications To Overweight; Financials Breaking Above 2007 Highs

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We raise our fair value estimate for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8996" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8996:1">Fairfax Media Ltd (FXJ AU)</a> by 8%, or AUD 0.05 per share, to AUD 0.70, following the no-moat rated group's first post-<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26033" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1">Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (DHG AU)</a> split result.</p><p>AUD 0.03 of the lift stems from an upgrade to our earnings estimates, reflecting better-than-expected progress on two cost fronts. First, the 15% year-on-year lift in first-half metropolitan publishing EBIT to AUD 28 million was eye-catching, with aggressive expense management more than…</p>

We raise our fair value estimate for Fairfax Media Ltd (FXJ AU) by 8%, or AUD 0.05 per share, to AUD 0.70, following the no-moat rated group's first post-Domain Holdings Australia Ltd (DHG AU) split result.AUD 0.03 of the lift stems from an upgrade to our earnings estimates, reflecting better-than-expected progress on two cost fronts. First, the 15% year-on-year lift in first-half metropolitan publishing EBIT to AUD 28 million was eye-catching, with aggressive expense management more than…

As Fairfax Media Steps Up Cost-Out, We Step Up FVE to AUD 0.70

United States

News Corporation operates in the publishing industry. The Company provides publications consisting of newspapers, magazines, books and promotional inserts.

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News Corp Class A (NWSA US)

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples - Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the $SPX 4100-4165 area. Upgrading...

Vermilion Research

News Corp (NWS AU)'s Proposed Merger With Fox Corp. Again.

The merger remains very much in the exploratory stage. NWS is trading rich from a historical point of view Without the benefit of clarity on a...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: News Corp/REA Group, Jafco/Nomura Research, Iljin Holdings/Iljin Electric, Sakata/SIIX

Looking at consensus numbers, the majority of forward growth is coming from REA, not the stub ops. From a NAV viewpoint, News Corp is trading rich....

David Blennerhassett

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Communications To Overweight; Financials Breaking Above 2007 Highs

Ongoing market dynamics continue to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and...

Vermilion Research

As Fairfax Media Steps Up Cost-Out, We Step Up FVE to AUD 0.70

We raise our fair value estimate for Fairfax Media Ltd (FXJ AU) by 8%, or AUD 0.05 per share, to AUD 0.70, following the no-moat rated group's...

Morningstar, Inc.

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