HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Newtrend Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Summit's chances of being sold have decreased significantly. Since Summit does not have enough funds to promote multiple large-scale Phase III trials, the outlook of Summit/Akeso will become increasingly passive.</li>
<li>The public statements of Zhao Yan from Bloomage have raised doubts in the market about the prospects of collagen and Giant Biogene. Below, we shared some differentiated views on this.</li>
<li>The IPO pricing of Newtrend is HK$18.9-20.9/share. We think Newtrend is overvalued considering the "price war" and oversupply issue. Reasonable valuation should be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-jinhe-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4296:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Jinhe Industrial (002597 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Summit's chances of being sold have decreased significantly. Since Summit does not have enough funds to promote multiple large-scale Phase III trials, the outlook of Summit/Akeso will become increasingly passive.
The public statements of Zhao Yan from Bloomage have raised doubts in the market about the prospects of collagen and Giant Biogene. Below, we shared some differentiated views on this.
The IPO pricing of Newtrend is HK$18.9-20.9/share. We think Newtrend is overvalued considering the "price war" and oversupply issue. Reasonable valuation should be lower than Anhui Jinhe Industrial (002597 CH).


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.8)-Summit/Akeso, Giant Biogene's Trouble, Views on Newtrend IPO Pricing

<ul>
<li>Newtrend’s revenue growth/profit margin showed a downward trend, mainly due to the sluggish export sales, Sucralose Price War and oversupply issue. Newtrend is currently in a period of performance recovery.</li>
<li>As product development is more inclined towards sugar free and healthy directions, the biggest challenge for Newtrend is the changes in customers’ demand/market trend, which will make business outlook uncertain.</li>
<li>Our forecast for 2025 performance is revenue could be RMB683 million, up 20% YoY, and net profit could be RMB54.3 million, up 25% YoY. Valuation would be lower than peers.  </li>
</ul>


Newtrend’s revenue growth/profit margin showed a downward trend, mainly due to the sluggish export sales, Sucralose Price War and oversupply issue. Newtrend is currently in a period of performance recovery.
As product development is more inclined towards sugar free and healthy directions, the biggest challenge for Newtrend is the changes in customers’ demand/market trend, which will make business outlook uncertain.
Our forecast for 2025 performance is revenue could be RMB683 million, up 20% YoY, and net profit could be RMB54.3 million, up 25% YoY. Valuation would be lower than peers.  


Pre-IPO Newtrend Technology - Changes in Market Trends Make the Performance Recovery Uncertain

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