Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure</li>
<li>And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
We've discussed since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the SPX (U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure
And we continue to see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025.


Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Research from Atrium Research, Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research

Research from Atrium Research

Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on public equities in North America. Our investment philosophy takes a 3-5 year view on equities currently being overlooked by the market. Our research process emphasizes understanding the key performance metrics for each specific company, trustworthy management teams, unit economics, and an in-depth valuation analysis. 

Our research product includes in-depth initiation reports, research notes, thematic research pieces, and company fact sheets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>What you need to know: We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trends</li><li>Limited brownfield projects and the lack of incentive for greenfield projects at $50/lb U3O8 will create a supply/demand imbalance</li><li>The new utility contracting cycle and Sprott Trust will continue to create price momentum for spot uranium While demand for uranium continues to progress higher due to shifting government policies to meet decarbonization goals and the newfound focus on energy independence, spot prices remain too low to incentivize new production.</li></ul>

What you need to know: We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trendsLimited brownfield projects and the lack of incentive for greenfield projects at $50/lb U3O8 will create a supply/demand imbalanceThe new utility contracting cycle and Sprott Trust will continue to create price momentum for spot uranium While demand for uranium continues to progress higher due to shifting government policies to meet decarbonization goals and the newfound focus on energy independence, spot prices remain too low to incentivize new production.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Based on prices and turnover from 17 July, there could be 5 additions and 1 deletion for the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The index is currently trading 34% below its highs but near a zone from where it has bounced in the past.</li>
</ul>


Based on prices and turnover from 17 July, there could be 5 additions and 1 deletion for the index in July. Plus there will be capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade.
The index is currently trading 34% below its highs but near a zone from where it has bounced in the past.


Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

Canada

NexGen Energy Ltd. operates as a special purpose uranium exploration company. The Company acquires, explores and develops properties for uranium resources in Canada.

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Nexgen Energy (NXE CN)

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Uranium: Asymmetry at its Finest

What you need to know: We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trends

Atrium Research

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

There could be 5 adds and 1 delete for the index in July. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. The index...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Buy the Pullback in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buys in Uranium, Transports, Services, Technology, More

Buy the Pullback in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; Still bullish on global equities with $ACWI and the SPX holding above their respective bases at $117 and...

Vermilion Research

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

Uranium: Asymmetry at its Finest

What you need to know: We are expecting demand for uranium to scale upward over the next 5+ years due to decarbonization and energy security trends

Atrium Research

Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Adds, 1 Delete Possible

There could be 5 adds and 1 delete for the index in July. Estimated one-way turnover is 7.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$840m. The index...

Brian Freitas

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...