Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold</li>
<li>We see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we still expect a period of consolidation/pullback, aforementioned support levels need to break to give us confidence that the pullback has begun.</li>
<li>We are upgrading Staples (XLP) to overweight, and we are downgrading Services to underweight</li>
</ul>


We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6780-6824 on SPX and $255-$257 on IWM continue to hold
We see deterioration in market dynamics, and while we still expect a period of consolidation/pullback, aforementioned support levels need to break to give us confidence that the pullback has begun.
We are upgrading Staples (XLP) to overweight, and we are downgrading Services to underweight


Upgrading Staples to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Still Cautious; Market Dynamics Deteriorating

Providing investors with a balanced perspective, Massif Capital

Massif Capital Research

Providing investors with a balanced perspective

Massif Capital

Research focused on providing investors with a balanced perspective on the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy for businesses within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial industries.

The Massif Capital Real Asset Strategy is a global long/short equity strategy built around bottom-up stock picking. We are focused on creating a portfolio of businesses from within the Energy, Basic Materials and Industrial sectors that balance the environmental and economic realities of achieving a carbon-neutral economy.

Macroeconomics

<h3>This Week's Key Take Aways</h3><ul><li>Volatility suggests markets are not concerned about…anything.</li><li>Crude has a down month.</li><li>Industrials have had a great 8 months, will it continue?</li><li>Renewable investment growth continues, everywhere but the US.</li><li>The market has pre-priced in cuts; will it subdue the economic impact?</li></ul>

This Week's Key Take AwaysVolatility suggests markets are not concerned about…anything.Crude has a down month.Industrials have had a great 8 months, will it continue?Renewable investment growth continues, everywhere but the US.The market has pre-priced in cuts; will it subdue the economic impact?

Real Asset Chartbook Week #19: Volatility Is Low, Crude Is Down, and Industrials Are on a Roll

Commodities

<h3><strong>This Week's Key Take Aways</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>Lithium stock run may already be out of steam</li>
<li>Like Oil, the Natural Gas markets appear well supplied and are showing near-term weakness.</li>
<li>No love for North American lumber</li>
<li>Copper continues to have us on edge, love the long-term story, but we have got to survive the short and medium term to get there.</li>
<li>Renewable tax credit qualification has a new physical work standard; the race is on to build.</li>
</ul>

This Week's Key Take Aways

Lithium stock run may already be out of steam
Like Oil, the Natural Gas markets appear well supplied and are showing near-term weakness.
No love for North American lumber
Copper continues to have us on edge, love the long-term story, but we have got to survive the short and medium term to get there.
Renewable tax credit qualification has a new physical work standard; the race is on to build.


Real Asset Chartbook Week #18: Lithium Blinks, Gas Slips, Copper Stalls—Who Survives the Grind?

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Deregulation's Green Energy Boost: Reduced federal oversight could accelerate innovation in renewables as corporations and markets drive sustainability efforts independently of government policies.</li>
<li>Tariff-Induced Deflation Risks: Disrupted global supply chains and demand destruction from tariffs may lead to deflationary pressures rather than the widely expected inflation.</li>
<li>Rise of Privatized Services: Tax cuts could act as a gateway to increased privatization of government services, shifting more essential functions like education and law enforcement to corporate control.</li>
</ul>


Deregulation's Green Energy Boost: Reduced federal oversight could accelerate innovation in renewables as corporations and markets drive sustainability efforts independently of government policies.
Tariff-Induced Deflation Risks: Disrupted global supply chains and demand destruction from tariffs may lead to deflationary pressures rather than the widely expected inflation.
Rise of Privatized Services: Tax cuts could act as a gateway to increased privatization of government services, shifting more essential functions like education and law enforcement to corporate control.


Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms

<ul>
<li>Major corporations and states will continue driving green energy demand, with renewable energy commitments independent of federal policy.</li>
<li>International green energy firms in Europe and Asia will attract U.S. investment and technologies as supportive policies and consistent demand make these markets appealing.</li>
<li>Despite an <em>"independent fed"</em> lower interest rates are more likely under Trump, which might more than compensate policy changes as investment costs rather than operational costs drive renewables </li>
</ul>


Major corporations and states will continue driving green energy demand, with renewable energy commitments independent of federal policy.
International green energy firms in Europe and Asia will attract U.S. investment and technologies as supportive policies and consistent demand make these markets appealing.
Despite an "independent fed" lower interest rates are more likely under Trump, which might more than compensate policy changes as investment costs rather than operational costs drive renewables 


How a Trump Presidency Could Fuel Green Energy Innovation and Global Growth

United States

NextEra Energy, Inc. provides sustainable energy generation and distribution services. The Company generates electricity through wind, solar, and natural gas. Through its subsidiaries, NextEra Energy also operates multiple commercial nuclear power units.

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Nextera Energy (NEE US)

Upgrading Staples to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Still Cautious; Market Dynamics Deteriorating

Upgrading Staples $XLP to Overweight; Downgrading Services. Cautious $SPX $QQQ; Market Dynamics Deteriorating as Defensives Take the Lead $XLU...

Vermilion Research

Real Asset Chartbook Week #19: Volatility Is Low, Crude Is Down, and Industrials Are on a Roll

This Week's Key Take Aways Volatility suggests markets are not concerned about…anything. Crude has a down month. Industrials have had a great 8...

Massif Capital Research

Real Asset Chartbook Week #18: Lithium Blinks, Gas Slips, Copper Stalls—Who Survives the Grind?

This Week's Key Take Aways Lithium stock run may already be out of steam Like Oil, the Natural Gas markets appear well supplied and are showing...

Massif Capital Research

Trump 2.0: Some Unexplored Market Implications of Deregulation, Tariffs, and Tax Reforms

Trump's re-election sparks a policy rodeo of deregulation, tariffs, and tax cuts, but focus should be on structural trends as that will always...

Pyari Menon

How a Trump Presidency Could Fuel Green Energy Innovation and Global Growth

States and corporations drive U.S. green energy demand. Interest rates, and innovations rather than Trump admin policies will shape renewables...

Pyari Menon

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