Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The reshuffle results align with expectations, but the decision to list 11 KOSDAQ Global stocks in April is surprising. Local authorities seem to prioritize boosting the derivatives market for liquidity.</li>
<li>Ecopro Materials' SSF listing, earlier than expected, attracts attention, potentially leading to an unusual basis pattern, coinciding with a major lockup release on May 17th.</li>
<li>We should also be wary of a pattern akin to last July's in KOSDAQ stocks. Spot prices of recent SSFs showed a pronounced short-term uptrend, especially in KOSDAQ, versus KOSPI.</li>
</ul>


The reshuffle results align with expectations, but the decision to list 11 KOSDAQ Global stocks in April is surprising. Local authorities seem to prioritize boosting the derivatives market for liquidity.
Ecopro Materials' SSF listing, earlier than expected, attracts attention, potentially leading to an unusual basis pattern, coinciding with a major lockup release on May 17th.
We should also be wary of a pattern akin to last July's in KOSDAQ stocks. Spot prices of recent SSFs showed a pronounced short-term uptrend, especially in KOSDAQ, versus KOSPI.


KRX's Official SSF/SSO Reshuffle Results: Trading Considerations

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bh-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3933:1" rel="noopener">BH Co Ltd (090460 KS)</a></strong> will likely complete the transfer listing by early May, suggesting an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.</li>
<li>BH's GICS sector is INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. It means the top reserved issue at the previous review gets to replace BH. At this point, it will be <strong>HFR Inc (230240 KS)</strong>.</li>
<li>We should build up a Long position on HFR right after KRX approves BH's transfer and then close it on the next trading day after the KQ150 corporate action announcement.</li>
</ul>



BH Co Ltd (090460 KS) will likely complete the transfer listing by early May, suggesting an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
BH's GICS sector is INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY. It means the top reserved issue at the previous review gets to replace BH. At this point, it will be HFR Inc (230240 KS).
We should build up a Long position on HFR right after KRX approves BH's transfer and then close it on the next trading day after the KQ150 corporate action announcement.


An Exposed Target for Flow Trading on KQ150 Ad-Hoc Change by BH's KOSPI Transfer Listing

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Gigavis IPO is target price of 61,755 won per share, representing 56% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>We estimate the company to generate sales of 126.6 billion won (up 27% YoY) in 2023 and 150.9 billion won (up 19.2% YoY) in 2024.</li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on 21.8x P/E using our estimated net profit of 35.9 billion won in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Gigavis IPO is target price of 61,755 won per share, representing 56% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
We estimate the company to generate sales of 126.6 billion won (up 27% YoY) in 2023 and 150.9 billion won (up 19.2% YoY) in 2024.
Our base case valuation is based on 21.8x P/E using our estimated net profit of 35.9 billion won in 2023.


<ul>
<li>NICE I&amp;S will likely complete the transfer schedule in early May, meaning that an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.</li>
<li>If this gets completed before SK Oceanplant's transfer listing schedule, the top reserved issue in NICE's GICS sector (INDUSTRIALS) will be included. It is Sun Kwang (003100 KS).</li>
<li>As evidenced in the case of LX Semicon, we should set up a preemptive position for potential ADDITION at the time of the T or T-1 KRX corporate action announcement.</li>
</ul>


NICE I&amp;S will likely complete the transfer schedule in early May, meaning that an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
If this gets completed before SK Oceanplant's transfer listing schedule, the top reserved issue in NICE's GICS sector (INDUSTRIALS) will be included. It is Sun Kwang (003100 KS).
As evidenced in the case of LX Semicon, we should set up a preemptive position for potential ADDITION at the time of the T or T-1 KRX corporate action announcement.


Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we see 11 potential changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Most of the potential changes are high probability ones, but there are some stocks that are very close to market cap and liquidity cutoffs.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be much higher on the potential deletes as compared to the potential inclusions, though trade notionals are higher for the potential adds.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we see 11 potential changes to the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance.
Most of the potential changes are high probability ones, but there are some stocks that are very close to market cap and liquidity cutoffs.
The impact of passive trading will be much higher on the potential deletes as compared to the potential inclusions, though trade notionals are higher for the potential adds.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Churn in IT, Healthcare Stocks

South Korea

NEXTIN, Inc. manufactures and distributes semiconductor devices. The Company produces process defect detection equipment, cube scan equipment, and other related products. NEXTIN markets its products worldwide.

Nextin (348210 KS)

KRX's Official SSF/SSO Reshuffle Results: Trading Considerations

As pointed out in this post, considering KOSDAQ additions as a long basket is suitable. However, stocks with high pre-reshuffle price appreciation...

Sanghyun Park

An Exposed Target for Flow Trading on KQ150 Ad-Hoc Change by BH's KOSPI Transfer Listing

This post investigates the target of flow trading on KOSDAQ 150 ad-hoc change resulting from BH Co's transfer of listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI.

Sanghyun Park

Gigavis IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Gigavis IPO is target price of 61,755 won per share, representing 56% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event

This post offers a detailed guide about the target and timing of a flow trading position setup in NICE Information Service's KOSPI transfer listing...

Sanghyun Park

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Churn in IT, Healthcare Stocks

There could be 11 changes at the Dec rebalance. Most changes are high probability and will result in a big churn in the IT & Healthcare sectors....

Brian Freitas