Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>The 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings started on 1st March 2024 and as things stand, there could be three ADDs/DELs in June 2024.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
The 3-month reference period used for average market cap rankings started on 1st March 2024 and as things stand, there could be three ADDs/DELs in June 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Reference Period Begins; Three Changes Likely; Some Trade Ideas

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return at 6.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is undervalued in terms of the fundamentals, while the long-term growth prospects remain strong, and the tactical view is neutral in 2024-26E.</li><li>TIDLOR reported a 4Q23 net profit of Bt901mn (+10% YoY, -10% QoQ), in line with our projection.</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return at 6.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is undervalued in terms of the fundamentals, while the long-term growth prospects remain strong, and the tactical view is neutral in 2024-26E.TIDLOR reported a 4Q23 net profit of Bt901mn (+10% YoY, -10% QoQ), in line with our projection.

Ngern Tid Lor - 4Q23 Earnings in Line; Higher Provision but Lower NPLs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 29 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 0.55% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 455m. There is nearly zero funding flow on the other index members.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy close to 1.2% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a>'s free float while selling around 1.6% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
</ul>



KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB) will replace Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 29 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 0.55% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 455m. There is nearly zero funding flow on the other index members.
Passive trackers will need to buy close to 1.2% of KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)'s free float while selling around 1.6% of float in Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 


SET50 Index Rebalance: KCE Replaces TIDLOR

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand's SET50 index rebalance in December 2023.</li>
<li>I currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the SET50 index but if prices fluctuate significantly in the next month or so there could be more changes.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand's SET50 index rebalance in December 2023.
I currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the SET50 index but if prices fluctuate significantly in the next month or so there could be more changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Likely; DELTA DEL Unlikely

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

Srisawad is currently an expected DEL. However, the gap between 51st-ranked Srisawad and 50th-ranked Banpu is very small and it is still possible...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: Reference Period Begins; Three Changes Likely; Some Trade Ideas

Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB) could outperform Aeon Thana Sinsap Thailand (AEONTS TB) and Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB) could outperform IRPC PCL...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Ngern Tid Lor - 4Q23 Earnings in Line; Higher Provision but Lower NPLs

The valuation metrics suggest that the stock is undervalued in terms of the fundamentals, while the long-term growth prospects remain strong, and...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: KCE Replaces TIDLOR

As forecast, KCE will replace TIDLOR in the SET50 at the close on 29 Dec. Passives will trade around 0.8-1.1x ADV and 1.2-1.6% of float on the...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Likely; DELTA DEL Unlikely

JMT and KCE are expected ADDs while TIDLOR and SAWAD are expected DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in December 2023. I continue to believe DELTA...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA