Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TIDLOR posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt1.4bn (+43% YoY, +9% QoQ), beating our estimate by 9% on lower provisions.</li><li>Loan control, new lending, debt collection, and recovery in collateral values (used-car prices) strengthened asset quality.</li><li>Non-interest income also grew well (+15% YoY, +2% QoQ), supported by insurance brokerage fees and loan-related income.</li></ul>

TIDLOR posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt1.4bn (+43% YoY, +9% QoQ), beating our estimate by 9% on lower provisions.Loan control, new lending, debt collection, and recovery in collateral values (used-car prices) strengthened asset quality.Non-interest income also grew well (+15% YoY, +2% QoQ), supported by insurance brokerage fees and loan-related income.

TIDLOR Holdings Plc. (TIDLOR): Earnings Beat; Asset Quality Improving Sharply

<ul><li>TIDLOR’s 3Q25E net profit is estimated at Bt1.29bn (+30% YoY, flat QoQ), with results expected to be announced on November 11, 2025.</li><li>The YoY growth is driven by improved asset quality from prudent lending and effective debt collection, likely leading to a 31% YoY drop in provisions and a continued decline in NPLs to 1.76% (–12bps YoY, –2bps QoQ).</li><li>We raise our 2025–27E profit forecasts by 8%, 4%, and 1%, respectively, reflecting lower provisions from better-than-expected asset quality, while trimming loan growth assumptions to account for continued prudent lending.</li></ul>

TIDLOR’s 3Q25E net profit is estimated at Bt1.29bn (+30% YoY, flat QoQ), with results expected to be announced on November 11, 2025.The YoY growth is driven by improved asset quality from prudent lending and effective debt collection, likely leading to a 31% YoY drop in provisions and a continued decline in NPLs to 1.76% (–12bps YoY, –2bps QoQ).We raise our 2025–27E profit forecasts by 8%, 4%, and 1%, respectively, reflecting lower provisions from better-than-expected asset quality, while trimming loan growth assumptions to account for continued prudent lending.

TIDLOR HOLDINGS Plc. TIDLOR: Solid Asset Quality Control To Support 3Q25E Profit

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.</li><li>We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.</li><li>The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.</li></ul>

If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

<ul><li>The surge in the Dow Jones lifted sentiment across Asian bourses, but the SET continued to trade within a narrow range.</li><li>The index attempted to rebound but later retreated amid thin trading volume and a lack of new positive catalysts.</li><li>We therefore continue to expect the index to move sideways to slightly upward.</li></ul>

The surge in the Dow Jones lifted sentiment across Asian bourses, but the SET continued to trade within a narrow range.The index attempted to rebound but later retreated amid thin trading volume and a lack of new positive catalysts.We therefore continue to expect the index to move sideways to slightly upward.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 15, 2025

<ul><li>The US sets a 19% tariff rate on Thailand.</li><li>The US and Thailand issue a joint statement as a framework for the next stage of negotiations.</li><li>The US and Thailand conduct detailed negotiations in line with the joint statement.</li></ul>

The US sets a 19% tariff rate on Thailand.The US and Thailand issue a joint statement as a framework for the next stage of negotiations.The US and Thailand conduct detailed negotiations in line with the joint statement.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 15, 2025

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)

TIDLOR Holdings Plc. (TIDLOR): Earnings Beat; Asset Quality Improving Sharply

TIDLOR posted 3Q25 net profit of Bt1.4bn (+43% YoY, +9% QoQ), beating our estimate by 9% on lower provisions.Loan control, new lending, debt...

Krungthai XSpring

TIDLOR HOLDINGS Plc. TIDLOR: Solid Asset Quality Control To Support 3Q25E Profit

TIDLOR’s 3Q25E net profit is estimated at Bt1.29bn (+30% YoY, flat QoQ), with results expected to be announced on November 11, 2025.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 15, 2025

The index attempted to rebound but later retreated amid thin trading volume and a lack of new positive catalysts.We therefore continue to expect...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 15, 2025

The US and Thailand issue a joint statement as a framework for the next stage of negotiations.The US and Thailand conduct detailed negotiations in...

Krungthai XSpring

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