Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With one day left in the review period, we see 4 potential changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> could be added to the index following the market consultation that lowered the inclusion thresholds for Average Daily Trading Values and Turnover ratios.</li>
<li>An equally weighted basket of potential adds has outperformed the potential deletes but there has been a deterioration in performance over the last month.</li>
</ul>


With one day left in the review period, we see 4 potential changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the June rebalance.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) could be added to the index following the market consultation that lowered the inclusion thresholds for Average Daily Trading Values and Turnover ratios.
An equally weighted basket of potential adds has outperformed the potential deletes but there has been a deterioration in performance over the last month.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes as Review Period Ends Today

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt21.87 (vs. Bt24.11), based on the earnings yield and a revised required rate of return of 7.9% (vs. 6.8%) following the adjustment to the macroeconomic factors used for the beta <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">calculation based on our new house view.</span></li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.</li><li>Meanwhile, the tactical downside risk is limited</li></ul>

We maintain an Outperform rating, with a new fair value of Bt21.87 (vs. Bt24.11), based on the earnings yield and a revised required rate of return of 7.9% (vs. 6.8%) following the adjustment to the macroeconomic factors used for the beta calculation based on our new house view.The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.Meanwhile, the tactical downside risk is limited

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.</li><li>The 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1,104mn (+15.6% YoY and +22.5% QoQ), beating our forecast by 9%, as the cost-to-income ratio and the provision were smaller than expected.</li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating, based on the earnings yield and a required rate of return of 6.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the tactical view is neutral.The 1Q24 net profit amounted to Bt1,104mn (+15.6% YoY and +22.5% QoQ), beating our forecast by 9%, as the cost-to-income ratio and the provision were smaller than expected.

Ngern Tid Lor - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings with Lower Credit Costs QoQ

<ul><li>TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (Tidlor Holdings).</li><li>This restructuring entails a tender offer to purchase all shares of TIDLOR from shareholders, with Tidlor Holdings issuing new ordinary shares in exchange for TIDLOR’s existing ordinary shares at a swap ratio of one-to-one.</li><li>Following the tender offer, Tidlor Holdings will replace TIDLOR on the SET, with TIDLOR being delisted on the same day.</li></ul>

TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor Holdings Public Company Limited (Tidlor Holdings).This restructuring entails a tender offer to purchase all shares of TIDLOR from shareholders, with Tidlor Holdings issuing new ordinary shares in exchange for TIDLOR’s existing ordinary shares at a swap ratio of one-to-one.Following the tender offer, Tidlor Holdings will replace TIDLOR on the SET, with TIDLOR being delisted on the same day.

Ngern Tid Lor Plc. - TIDLOR Announces Shareholding and Management Restructuring Plans

<ul>
<li>The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> universe.</li>
<li>The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) universe.
The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Changes as Review Period Ends Today

With a day left in the review period, we forecast 4 changes for the SET50 in June. The largest impact will be on ITAIL and BJC. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

NGERN TID LOR - Earnings Recovery Path

The valuation metrics suggest that there is still implied upside of 8% to the current share price and that the long-term growth outlook is strong.

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor - Upbeat 1Q24 Earnings with Lower Credit Costs QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price is fundamentally undervalued, while the 2024-26E earnings growth prospects are strong, and the...

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor Plc. - TIDLOR Announces Shareholding and Management Restructuring Plans

TIDLOR has announced a planned restructuring of its shareholding and management, which involves establishing a holding company named Tidlor...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June

The market consultation proposes adjustments to the minimum thresholds for trading value and turnover ratio. That should result in 4 constituent...

Brian Freitas

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Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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