Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> at A$9/share in cash.</li>
<li>The offer values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>'s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.</li>
<li>There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.</li>
</ul>


A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in Origin Energy (ORG AU) at A$9/share in cash.
The offer values Origin Energy (ORG AU)'s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.
There will be changes to the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.


Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Domino's Aristocrat, Suncorp, New Hope.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 14th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD16.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Domino's Aristocrat, Suncorp, New Hope.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 14th): ANZ, Domino's Aristocrat, Suncorp, New Hope

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The top 5 highest ranked ASX 200 Potential ADDs have 10+ days to buy and a couple of these names could become intra-review additions. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> is an ASX 50 ADD and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lendlease-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11248:1" rel="noopener">Lendlease Group (LLC AU)</a> is an ASX 50 DEL as it stands. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2022 Rebalance.
The top 5 highest ranked ASX 200 Potential ADDs have 10+ days to buy and a couple of these names could become intra-review additions. 

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is an ASX 50 ADD and Lendlease Group (LLC AU) is an ASX 50 DEL as it stands. 


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Top Ranked ASX200 ADDs Look Interesting

<ul>
<li>There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>There could be 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, increasing to 8 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> continues to be halted and if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK)</a> is privatised.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
There could be 6 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), increasing to 8 if AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) continues to be halted and if Link Administration (LNK) is privatised.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Early 8 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> announced it had rejected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>'s  indicative acquisition proposal at A$25.00/share, after BHP had bought less than 5%.</li>
<li>The Board took a quick look over the weekend and decided "the Indicative Proposal significantly undervalues OZ Minerals" and rejected it out of hand. </li>
<li>It has been an obvious deal for years. This may not be BHP's last go, but they will probably need to pay more like A$30/share to get it. </li>
</ul>


Early 8 August, OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) announced it had rejected BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)'s  indicative acquisition proposal at A$25.00/share, after BHP had bought less than 5%.
The Board took a quick look over the weekend and decided "the Indicative Proposal significantly undervalues OZ Minerals" and rejected it out of hand. 
It has been an obvious deal for years. This may not be BHP's last go, but they will probably need to pay more like A$30/share to get it. 


Oz Minerals Rejects BHP's Opportunistic Foray - Expect More

Australia

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nib holdings (NHF AU)

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made an NBIO for Origin at A$9/share, a 54.9% premium to last. There is a high probability of this going...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 14th): ANZ, Domino's Aristocrat, Suncorp, New Hope

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Domino's Aristocrat, Suncorp, New Hope.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Top Ranked ASX200 ADDs Look Interesting

Tassal and Nearmap could get deleted from the ASX 200 index before the December 2022 Rebalance. Monadelphous and PolyNovo are leading the race to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Oz Minerals Rejects BHP's Opportunistic Foray - Expect More

BHP has lobbed an opportunistic offer for OZ Minerals for its "future-facing commodity assets. Not surprising. And it IS opportunistic. Both BHP...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made an NBIO for Origin at A$9/share, a 54.9% premium to last. There is a high probability of this going...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 14th): ANZ, Domino's Aristocrat, Suncorp, New Hope

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Domino's Aristocrat, Suncorp, New Hope.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Top Ranked ASX200 ADDs Look Interesting

Tassal and Nearmap could get deleted from the ASX 200 index before the December 2022 Rebalance. Monadelphous and PolyNovo are leading the race to...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

Oz Minerals Rejects BHP's Opportunistic Foray - Expect More

BHP has lobbed an opportunistic offer for OZ Minerals for its "future-facing commodity assets. Not surprising. And it IS opportunistic. Both BHP...

Travis Lundy

S&P/ASX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Top Ranked ASX200 ADDs Look Interesting

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears