Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 2.7% this week, closing at 37,913 points, due to political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general election, rising global bond yields, and disappointing economic data</li>
<li>Japan's weakening services and manufacturing sectors, as indicated by declining PMIs and easing inflation, highlight slowing domestic demand and economic uncertainty, raising concerns about future growth prospects.</li>
<li>Konica Minolta (4902): Gained 25% after activist investor, Effissimo Capital, declared a significant 5.8% stake in the company.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 2.7% this week, closing at 37,913 points, due to political uncertainty ahead of Japan's general election, rising global bond yields, and disappointing economic data
Japan's weakening services and manufacturing sectors, as indicated by declining PMIs and easing inflation, highlight slowing domestic demand and economic uncertainty, raising concerns about future growth prospects.
Konica Minolta (4902): Gained 25% after activist investor, Effissimo Capital, declared a significant 5.8% stake in the company.


Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Markets back to risk-on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam, and UPS.</li>
<li>Strong US new home sales data and good earnings for CBRE sets a positive tone for R/E.</li>
<li>Good Siltronics numbers yesterday a positive read for wafer makers Sumco and Shin-Etsu ahead of numbers today.</li>
</ul>


Markets back to risk-on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam, and UPS.
Strong US new home sales data and good earnings for CBRE sets a positive tone for R/E.
Good Siltronics numbers yesterday a positive read for wafer makers Sumco and Shin-Etsu ahead of numbers today.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

<ul>
<li>Apple down hitting suppliers, with ARM and Qualcomm spat taking both lower. Watch Softbank for weakness.</li>
<li>Tesla earnings smashing it out of the park, will help buoy EV related including Nidec - whose own numbers yesterday were positive.</li>
<li>Texas Instruments +4% on numbers beat should help industrial elec names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec, despite lingering concerns.</li>
</ul>


Apple down hitting suppliers, with ARM and Qualcomm spat taking both lower. Watch Softbank for weakness.
Tesla earnings smashing it out of the park, will help buoy EV related including Nidec - whose own numbers yesterday were positive.
Texas Instruments +4% on numbers beat should help industrial elec names such as Rohm and Fuji Elec, despite lingering concerns.


Japan Morning Connection: Tesla Big Beat and SK Hynix Numbers to Buoy Sentiment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nidec's Q2 operating income beat my estimates, driven by strong small motors and appliance segments, though automotive profits underperformed</li>
<li>The automotive division is shifting focus from e-axles to broader auto parts, while improving operational efficiency through partnerships and streamlined logistics</li>
<li>Despite macro risks, Nidec remains well-positioned for long-term growth in digitalization, decarbonization, and automation, with a price target of ¥4,350</li>
</ul>


Nidec's Q2 operating income beat my estimates, driven by strong small motors and appliance segments, though automotive profits underperformed
The automotive division is shifting focus from e-axles to broader auto parts, while improving operational efficiency through partnerships and streamlined logistics
Despite macro risks, Nidec remains well-positioned for long-term growth in digitalization, decarbonization, and automation, with a price target of ¥4,350


Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.</li>
<li>Following the rally in the stock, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> trades expensive to the average and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.</li>
<li>The increase in cumulative excess volume in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> over the last 3 months far outpaces the increase in its peers.</li>
</ul>



Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
Following the rally in the stock, Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) trades expensive to the average and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.
The increase in cumulative excess volume in Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) over the last 3 months far outpaces the increase in its peers.


Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

Markets risk on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam and UPS. Positive tone for R/E after strong US home sales data and for wafer makers such as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tesla Big Beat and SK Hynix Numbers to Buoy Sentiment

Watch Softbank for weakness as ARM and Qualcomm brought lower by spat, Tesla's strong earnings will buoy EV related, Texas Instruments' positive...

Andrew Jackson

Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

Nidec's Q2 results exceeded my expectations, with strong performance in small motors and appliances but weaker profits in automotive. Stock...

Mark Chadwick

Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to Fujikura being added to passive portfolios at the end of Nov. Positioning in the stock is larger than in...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Drops; Political Uncertainty; Weakening Economy

​Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On to Finish the Week

Markets risk on after big earnings from Tesla, Lam and UPS. Positive tone for R/E after strong US home sales data and for wafer makers such as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tesla Big Beat and SK Hynix Numbers to Buoy Sentiment

Watch Softbank for weakness as ARM and Qualcomm brought lower by spat, Tesla's strong earnings will buoy EV related, Texas Instruments' positive...

Andrew Jackson

Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

​Nidec's Q2 results exceeded my expectations, with strong performance in small motors and appliances but weaker profits in automotive. Stock...

Mark Chadwick

Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to Fujikura being added to passive portfolios at the end of Nov. Positioning in the stock is larger than in...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 falls 2.7% on political uncertainty, global bond yields, and weak economic data; Konica Minolta gains 25% after activist investor...

Nidec's Q2 results exceeded my expectations, with strong performance in small motors and appliances but weaker profits in automotive. Stock...