Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The TOPIX Index - Japan's premier domestic equity index - will undergo a sea change in methodology at the end of this month, with ~760 names affected. </li>
<li>There will be roughly 35 or so ADDs, about 700 DELETEs (phased out over 8 quarters), and 40+ Liquidity Factor Removals. There will also be hundreds of FFW changes. </li>
<li>The likely ADDs have handily outperformed their peers over the past year, but some of that has been tech and idiosyncratic circumstances. There may still be trades to do.</li>
</ul>


The TOPIX Index - Japan's premier domestic equity index - will undergo a sea change in methodology at the end of this month, with ~760 names affected. 
There will be roughly 35 or so ADDs, about 700 DELETEs (phased out over 8 quarters), and 40+ Liquidity Factor Removals. There will also be hundreds of FFW changes. 
The likely ADDs have handily outperformed their peers over the past year, but some of that has been tech and idiosyncratic circumstances. There may still be trades to do.


[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part V (Final Prep)

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SMCI -33% after federal prosecutors accused officials of smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Bad for Nidec Corp (6594 JP) who makes server cooling modules for SMCI.</li>
<li>Chiyoda looks interesting on Qatar LNG reconstruction given its direct tie-up with Technip once conflict stabilises.</li>
<li>Sumi Forestry looking increasingly ill-timed on its Tri Pointe acquisition as US homebuilder rates hit highest since mid-2026.</li>
</ul>


SMCI -33% after federal prosecutors accused officials of smuggling Nvidia chips into China. Bad for Nidec Corp (6594 JP) who makes server cooling modules for SMCI.
Chiyoda looks interesting on Qatar LNG reconstruction given its direct tie-up with Technip once conflict stabilises.
Sumi Forestry looking increasingly ill-timed on its Tri Pointe acquisition as US homebuilder rates hit highest since mid-2026.


Japan Morning Connection: SMCI's Chip Smuggling Scandal Drags Server and Memory Down

<ul>
<li>NVDA numbers hard to fault to expect continued strength in Japan SPE, and I would watch for a rebound from Ibiden after yesterday's dip.</li>
<li>Software rebounded so watch NEC Hitachi and Fujitsu, although Salesforce weakness AH may take the shine off.</li>
<li>SMCI's C-Node X AI infrastructure stack in partnership with Vast and NVDA may help Nidec catch a bid.</li>
</ul>


NVDA numbers hard to fault to expect continued strength in Japan SPE, and I would watch for a rebound from Ibiden after yesterday's dip.
Software rebounded so watch NEC Hitachi and Fujitsu, although Salesforce weakness AH may take the shine off.
SMCI's C-Node X AI infrastructure stack in partnership with Vast and NVDA may help Nidec catch a bid.


Japan Morning Connection: Navitas Semi Numbers Show Increased Adoption of GaN/SiC Power Components

<ul>
<li>Globalfoundries +16% after a solid beat which shows gains from diversification into silicon photonics and low earth orbit satellites.</li>
<li>GS talking up Sandisk +10.7%, but expect the market to remains jittery ahead of Kioxia numbers today on the close.</li>
<li>Sumco headline numbers miss, but cost front loading and inventory reductions points to a better 2H.</li>
</ul>


Globalfoundries +16% after a solid beat which shows gains from diversification into silicon photonics and low earth orbit satellites.
GS talking up Sandisk +10.7%, but expect the market to remains jittery ahead of Kioxia numbers today on the close.
Sumco headline numbers miss, but cost front loading and inventory reductions points to a better 2H.


Japan Morning Connection: Semi-Cap Jumps Higher While Software Takes a Hit (Again) Over AI Concerns

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.</li>
<li>China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.</li>
<li>We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.</li>
</ul>


Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.
China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.
We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.


Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

[Quiddity Index] The TOPIX Change in Oct26 - Part V (Final Prep)

The TSE announcement for wholesale changes in the TOPIX Index is scheduled for Wednesday after the close. I expect 34-35 ADDs, ~700 DELETEs, and...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI's Chip Smuggling Scandal Drags Server and Memory Down

SMCI Nvidia chip smuggling charges hit server and memory names. Japan's SPE names likely muted at open after missing Thursday's US rebound during...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Navitas Semi Numbers Show Increased Adoption of GaN/SiC Power Components

Expectations missed after President's speech yesterday, negative for Sumitomo Forestry which been volatile since announcing new acquisition. Bain...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Semi-Cap Jumps Higher While Software Takes a Hit (Again) Over AI Concerns

Sumco likely to see a sharp drop to start. Power semi's doing well yesterday a positive for related JP names today. Wealth management and R/E...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Japan is deploying missiles to an island near Taiwan in an escalation of its increased militarism toward China since the PM election last month....

David Mudd

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