Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 23rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Eva Airways, Powerchip Semiconductor, AUO Corp, Formosa Plastics, Realtek, Yageo.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 23rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Eva Airways, Powerchip Semiconductor, AUO Corp, Formosa Plastics, Realtek, Yageo.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 23rd): Eva Airways, Powerchip

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Asian markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.</p>

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Asian markets to try to find interesting ideas based on Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>California October-November price and sales data mixed</h2><p>Since our last note on this topic on November 16th, the California Association of Realtors (CAR.org) has released October and November home price and sales volume updates. CAR.org data for October and November is mixed, in our view:</p><ul><li>Median single-family home prices rose moderately on a Y/Y basis in both October and November, but median prices fell sequentially in both months. Median prices have now fallen by -4.7% since the August 2016 peak…</li></ul>

California October-November price and sales data mixedSince our last note on this topic on November 16th, the California Association of Realtors (CAR.org) has released October and November home price and sales volume updates. CAR.org data for October and November is mixed, in our view:Median single-family home prices rose moderately on a Y/Y basis in both October and November, but median prices fell sequentially in both months. Median prices have now fallen by -4.7% since the August 2016 peak…

Oct-Nov California Home Sales Wobble, Plus Big Decline in Re-Fi Pool; Stay Short US Home Improvement

<p>Back in late September we analyzed the latest numbers coming out of Southern California's suburban real estate market and concluded that it would be a good time to get short Asian manufacturers of home improvement items sold in the US. Our view then was that even a modest increase in borrowing costs would hurt housing affordability, leading to a slowdown in housing-related activity and, ultimately, weaker demand for home improvement items manufactured in Asia, such as power tools, home decor…</p>

Back in late September we analyzed the latest numbers coming out of Southern California's suburban real estate market and concluded that it would be a good time to get short Asian manufacturers of home improvement items sold in the US. Our view then was that even a modest increase in borrowing costs would hurt housing affordability, leading to a slowdown in housing-related activity and, ultimately, weaker demand for home improvement items manufactured in Asia, such as power tools, home decor…

[Home Prices & Mortgage Rates Up] + [Weak Guidance From HD, LOW] = Stay Short Home Improvement Names

Taiwan

Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. is a manufacturer of an assorted range of window coverings.

Nien Made Enterprise (8464 TT)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 23rd): Eva Airways, Powerchip

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Eva Airways, Powerchip Semiconductor, AUO Corp,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 30

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Asia markets...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Oct-Nov California Home Sales Wobble, Plus Big Decline in Re-Fi Pool; Stay Short US Home Improvement

California October-November price and sales data mixedSince our last note on this topic on November 16th, the California Association of Realtors...

Daniel Hellberg

[Home Prices & Mortgage Rates Up] + [Weak Guidance From HD, LOW] = Stay Short Home Improvement Names

Back in late September we analyzed the latest numbers coming out of Southern California's suburban real estate market and concluded that it would...

Daniel Hellberg