Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty-poised-to-reignite-its-uptrend-but-faces-short-term-obstacles" target="_blank" rel="noopener">latest insight</a> on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> recognized the possibility of obstacles against a rally from the index's lows.</li>
<li>The index has fallen for another 2 weeks from there, now it is very oversold and a relief rally could begin this week or the next.</li>
<li>Profit targets for this relief rally are in the 23100 area, but <strong>unfortunately the forecast is maximum 3 weeks up, not really a bullish pattern...</strong>
</li>
</ul>


Our latest insight on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) recognized the possibility of obstacles against a rally from the index's lows.
The index has fallen for another 2 weeks from there, now it is very oversold and a relief rally could begin this week or the next.
Profit targets for this relief rally are in the 23100 area, but unfortunately the forecast is maximum 3 weeks up, not really a bullish pattern...



NIFTY Set for a Modest Rally from Current Lows

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Sell-Off continues with all four trading days this week registering losses.</li>
<li>1M Implied vols firmed on the sharp move lower but remain capped at 14 for the time being.</li>
<li>March seasonality positive for Nifty which might help reverse the trend in the second half of the month.</li>
</ul>


Sell-Off continues with all four trading days this week registering losses.
1M Implied vols firmed on the sharp move lower but remain capped at 14 for the time being.
March seasonality positive for Nifty which might help reverse the trend in the second half of the month.


Nifty Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Down Trend Accelerates

<ul>
<li>Nifty’s prolonged downtrend continues, making it the worst-performing market year-to-date.</li>
<li>Low volatility dominated price action, with 1-week historic vol at just 3.54 ranking in the 4th percentile since 2021. Possible precursor to a break from here.</li>
<li>Traders may consider letting deltas run, as daily delta hedging offers little benefit in this low vol environment.</li>
</ul>


Nifty’s prolonged downtrend continues, making it the worst-performing market year-to-date.
Low volatility dominated price action, with 1-week historic vol at just 3.54 ranking in the 4th percentile since 2021. Possible precursor to a break from here.
Traders may consider letting deltas run, as daily delta hedging offers little benefit in this low vol environment.


Nifty Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): Low Volatility Strangles Price Action

<ul>
<li>It has been a 5-months journey for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , from its last peak in September 2024, to its current lows. </li>
<li>Our WEEKLY model indicates a (mildly) OVERSOLD state (Friday at Close, 22929). If the index pulls back a bit more, it's a BUY but keep reading...</li>
<li>Our tactical short-term model has found limited upside for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> at the moment, so the long-waited restart of the uptrend may be a bit bumpy. </li>
</ul>


It has been a 5-months journey for the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , from its last peak in September 2024, to its current lows. 
Our WEEKLY model indicates a (mildly) OVERSOLD state (Friday at Close, 22929). If the index pulls back a bit more, it's a BUY but keep reading...
Our tactical short-term model has found limited upside for the NIFTY at the moment, so the long-waited restart of the uptrend may be a bit bumpy. 


NIFTY Poised to Reignite Its Uptrend, But Faces Short-Term Obstacles

<ul>
<li>Nifty mired in long downtrend with unfavorable seasonals directly ahead.</li>
<li>Weak price action, with all 5 days trading lower pulls implied vols higher by 1.5 points.</li>
<li>We examine the poor seasonal performance heading into the end of the month and recommend a tactical hedge.</li>
</ul>


Nifty mired in long downtrend with unfavorable seasonals directly ahead.
Weak price action, with all 5 days trading lower pulls implied vols higher by 1.5 points.
We examine the poor seasonal performance heading into the end of the month and recommend a tactical hedge.


EQD | Nifty Index Options Weekly (February 10 – 14): Tactical Hedge into Weak Seasonals

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

NIFTY Set for a Modest Rally from Current Lows

NIFTY Index could see a modest relief rally soon, with profit targets around 23100. Our model suggests a maximum 3-week uptrend, so the forecast...

Nico Rosti

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Down Trend Accelerates

Stock market sell-off persists this week, with potential for reversal in Nifty due to positive March seasonality in the last two weeks of the month.

John Ley

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): Low Volatility Strangles Price Action

Nifty market continues downward trend, with activity this week marked by exceptionally low volatility. Prior volatility lows during down-trend...

John Ley

NIFTY Poised to Reignite Its Uptrend, But Faces Short-Term Obstacles

Our model shows the NIFTY in a mildly oversold state, a potential long-term buying opportunity, but the short-term upside is limited and may lead...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nifty Index Options Weekly (February 10 – 14): Tactical Hedge into Weak Seasonals

Nifty facing unfavorable seasonals and still in the midst of longest down trend since 2007, prompting recommendation for tactical hedge.

John Ley

NIFTY Set for a Modest Rally from Current Lows

​NIFTY Index could see a modest relief rally soon, with profit targets around 23100. Our model suggests a maximum 3-week uptrend, so the forecast...

Nico Rosti

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Feb 24 – 28): Down Trend Accelerates

​Stock market sell-off persists this week, with potential for reversal in Nifty due to positive March seasonality in the last two weeks of the month.

John Ley

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Feb 17 – 21): Low Volatility Strangles Price Action

​Nifty market continues downward trend, with activity this week marked by exceptionally low volatility. Prior volatility lows during down-trend...

John Ley

NIFTY Poised to Reignite Its Uptrend, But Faces Short-Term Obstacles

Our model shows the NIFTY in a mildly oversold state, a potential long-term buying opportunity, but the short-term upside is limited and may lead...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nifty Index Options Weekly (February 10 – 14): Tactical Hedge into Weak Seasonals

​Nifty facing unfavorable seasonals and still in the midst of longest down trend since 2007, prompting recommendation for tactical hedge.

John Ley

NIFTY Index could see a modest relief rally soon, with profit targets around 23100. Our model suggests a maximum 3-week uptrend, so the forecast...

Stock market sell-off persists this week, with potential for reversal in Nifty due to positive March seasonality in the last two weeks of the month.

Nifty market continues downward trend, with activity this week marked by exceptionally low volatility. Prior volatility lows during down-trend...

Nifty facing unfavorable seasonals and still in the midst of longest down trend since 2007, prompting recommendation for tactical hedge.