Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:556:1" rel="noopener">IBN US)</a> is scheduled to report its Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.</li>
<li>
Highlight: In recent years, the bank has consistently beat analysts' expectations and often posted a positive performance post-earnings.</li>
<li>
Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.</li>
</ul>



ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) is scheduled to report its Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.

Highlight: In recent years, the bank has consistently beat analysts' expectations and often posted a positive performance post-earnings.

Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.


ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infosys-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:267:1" rel="noopener">Infosys (INFO IN</a> / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Thursday, 16 October 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.</li>
<li>
Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven price swings of up to ±9%. Options imply a ±3.5% swing. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly post earnings.</li>
<li>
Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.</li>
</ul>



Infosys (INFO IN / INFY US) reports Q1 FY26 results on Thursday, 16 October 2025 at 15:45 IST; earnings days historically triggered outsized price moves.

Expect Volatility: Results have historically driven price swings of up to ±9%. Options imply a ±3.5% swing. Implied volatility is expected to drop significantly post earnings.

Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.


Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. </li>
<li>Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.</li>
<li>Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.</li>
</ul>


October seasonals, despite their reputation, show most markets with better than 60% odds of finishing higher albeit with meager returns. 
Volatility trends have diverged, with implied vols climbing even as realized vols fell, raising questions about early signs of risk sensitivity.
Implied vols on most markets have been trending higher vs the SP500 despite the US being ground zero for policy uncertainty.


Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-consultancy-svcs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18708:1" rel="noopener">Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN)</a> will report Second Quarter FY 2026 Results on Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Typically a low-volatility stock, TCS has seen notable post-earnings swings in the past. Option markets now anticipate a move larger than its historic average.</li>
<li>
Why it matters: TCS is a top constituent of the Nifty 50 and Sensex. TCS’s commentary on the new H-1B visa fee could influence sentiment across India’s IT services sector.</li>
</ul>



Context:Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) will report Second Quarter FY 2026 Results on Thursday, 9 October 2025, after market close.

Highlight: Typically a low-volatility stock, TCS has seen notable post-earnings swings in the past. Option markets now anticipate a move larger than its historic average.

Why it matters: TCS is a top constituent of the Nifty 50 and Sensex. TCS’s commentary on the new H-1B visa fee could influence sentiment across India’s IT services sector.


Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors (TTMT IN)</a> is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.</li>
<li>Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX</a> trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.

NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.


Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains

Watch for ICICI Bank’s Q2 FY2026 results on 18 October 2025. The bank’s consistent earnings beats and strong post-result record could sway the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Infosys (INFO IN) Q2 Results:

Infosys will report Q2 results on Thu,16 Oct. Historically significant price swings potentially impacting Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Option markets...

Gaudenz Schneider

Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Despite October’s reputation for turmoil, history points to gains, though volatility signals have begun to diverge underscoring possible increasing...

John Ley

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move

TCS will report Q2 FY2026 results on 9 October 2025 amid potential for larger-than-usual post-earnings swings. Commentary on H-1B visa fees could...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors is demerging its PV and CV businesses. Both entities will remain in global indices. Nifty and Sensex trackers will sell their CV shares...

Brian Freitas

ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains

Watch for ICICI Bank’s Q2 FY2026 results on 18 October 2025. The bank’s consistent earnings beats and strong post-result record could sway the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Infosys (INFO IN) Q2 Results:

​Infosys will report Q2 results on Thu,16 Oct. Historically significant price swings potentially impacting Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Option markets...

Gaudenz Schneider

Monthly Macro Markets (October): Diverging Volatility Trends Highlight Risk Sensitivity

Despite October’s reputation for turmoil, history points to gains, though volatility signals have begun to diverge underscoring possible increasing...

John Ley

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN) Q2 FY2026 Results: Options Signal Larger-Than-Usual Move

TCS will report Q2 FY2026 results on 9 October 2025 amid potential for larger-than-usual post-earnings swings. Commentary on H-1B visa fees could...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications

Tata Motors is demerging its PV and CV businesses. Both entities will remain in global indices. Nifty and Sensex trackers will sell their CV shares...

Brian Freitas

Infosys will report Q2 results on Thu,16 Oct. Historically significant price swings potentially impacting Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Option markets...