Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>As forecasted in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nifty-50-index-outlook-rebound-rally-in-sight-profit-targets" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> rallied past 25k, but we said this was a BEARISH pattern - rally was short-lived (2 weeks), then this week down.
</li>
<li>
Effective September 30 InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) and Max Healthcare Institute will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, replacing Hero MotoCorp and IndusInd Bank, in the meanwhile 50% US tariffs kicked in.
</li>
<li>We see a potential continuation of the recent bearishness with a RISK-OFF scenario where the index could drop to much lower prices in September, support target 23819 or below.</li>
</ul>


As forecasted in our previous insight, the NIFTY Index rallied past 25k, but we said this was a BEARISH pattern - rally was short-lived (2 weeks), then this week down.


Effective September 30 InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) and Max Healthcare Institute will be added to the NIFTY, replacing Hero MotoCorp and IndusInd Bank, in the meanwhile 50% US tariffs kicked in.

We see a potential continuation of the recent bearishness with a RISK-OFF scenario where the index could drop to much lower prices in September, support target 23819 or below.


NIFTY 50 Tactical View: Risk-Off Scenario Before Sep-30 Rebalance + Tariffs Impact

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> has been falling for 5 straight weeks: it is extremely oversold, according to our model.
</li>
<li>The index should rebound this week, or the next, in any case the downside should be limited at this point.
</li>
<li>A rally could bring the index back to 25398, but we are witnessing a BEARISH pattern at the moment, so any rebound rally will be short-lived.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index has been falling for 5 straight weeks: it is extremely oversold, according to our model.

The index should rebound this week, or the next, in any case the downside should be limited at this point.

A rally could bring the index back to 25398, but we are witnessing a BEARISH pattern at the moment, so any rebound rally will be short-lived.


NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 - August 8.</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> </li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is the only stock clearly overbought. </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 - August 8.

OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , NIFTY Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX 

OVERBOUGHT: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the only stock clearly overbought. 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June's larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.</li>
<li>
Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets - a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. </li>
<li>
Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.</li>
</ul>



Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June's larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.

Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets - a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. 

Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.


RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

NIFTY 50 Tactical View: Risk-Off Scenario Before Sep-30 Rebalance + Tariffs Impact

The recent NIFTY Index rally was short-lived: the recent bearish pattern remains in place ahead of the Sep 30's rebalance, plus 50% US Tariffs...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)

The NIFTY Index is extremely oversold and expected to rebound soon, but any rally will be short-lived due to a bearish pattern. Profit targets and...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Nico Rosti

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

A data-driven look at how the Nifty 50 has historically reacted to RBI policy decisions - and what current options pricing signals for August 6.

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

NIFTY 50 Tactical View: Risk-Off Scenario Before Sep-30 Rebalance + Tariffs Impact

The recent ​NIFTY Index rally was short-lived: the recent bearish pattern remains in place ahead of the Sep 30's rebalance, plus 50% US Tariffs...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)

​The NIFTY Index is extremely oversold and expected to rebound soon, but any rally will be short-lived due to a bearish pattern. Profit targets and...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

​Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Nico Rosti

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

A data-driven look at how the Nifty 50 has historically reacted to RBI policy decisions - and what current options pricing signals for August 6.

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

The recent NIFTY Index rally was short-lived: the recent bearish pattern remains in place ahead of the Sep 30's rebalance, plus 50% US Tariffs...

The NIFTY Index is extremely oversold and expected to rebound soon, but any rally will be short-lived due to a bearish pattern. Profit targets and...

Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...