Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Most major indices extended their April rally through May, but seasonal patterns suggest caution from here.</li>
<li>Implied volatility declined across most markets, but remains above historical medians in several key regions.</li>
<li>Vol premium analysis highlights a few standouts where short vol has historically outperformed.</li>
</ul>


Most major indices extended their April rally through May, but seasonal patterns suggest caution from here.
Implied volatility declined across most markets, but remains above historical medians in several key regions.
Vol premium analysis highlights a few standouts where short vol has historically outperformed.


Global Macro Outlook (June): From Rally to Reversal? Macro Trends Shift as June Unfolds

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.</li>
<li>Analysis of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a> over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.</li>
<li>This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank Of India</a>’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the State Bank Of India (SBIN IN) over the past decade shows mostly negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the State Bank Of India’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down price dynamics by scenario.


State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

<ul>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.</li>
<li>Analysis of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a> over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.</li>
<li>This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.</li>
</ul>


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its monetary policy decision on Friday, June 6, 2025. Market consensus expects a rate cut to 5.75%.
Analysis of the NSE Nifty Bank Index over the past decade shows consistent negative returns on rate decision days when a cut is expected—regardless of whether the cut is delivered.
This Insight highlights actionable insights for traders by revealing historical patterns in the Nifty Bank Index’s behavior on RBI rate decision days and breaking down market reactions by scenario.


This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. </li>
<li>Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.</li>
<li>With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.</li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. 
Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb'25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.
With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec'25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.


India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

<ul>
<li>
Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.</li>
<li>
Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. </li>
<li>
Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.</li>
</ul>



Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.

Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. 

Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.


India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Global Macro Outlook (June): From Rally to Reversal? Macro Trends Shift as June Unfolds

Major indices continued their rally in May, but caution is advised due to seasonal patterns. Implied volatility has decreased but remains high in...

John Ley

State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

RBI expected to cut rates to 5.75% on June 6, 2025. Analysis shows negative returns for State Bank of India on rate cut days, offering insights...

Gaudenz Schneider

This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

RBI set to announce rate decision on June 6, with expectations of a cut to 5.75%. Analysis shows negative returns in the Nifty Bank Index on rate...

Gaudenz Schneider

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Month Ahead: Key Events in June 2025

Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Macro Outlook (June): From Rally to Reversal? Macro Trends Shift as June Unfolds

​Major indices continued their rally in May, but caution is advised due to seasonal patterns. Implied volatility has decreased but remains high in...

John Ley

State Bank of India (SBIN IN): Reserve Bank of India Day Patterns Offer a Tactical Trade Setup

​RBI expected to cut rates to 5.75% on June 6, 2025. Analysis shows negative returns for State Bank of India on rate cut days, offering insights...

Gaudenz Schneider

This Friday’s RBI Decision: Nifty Bank Slips Either Way, History Suggests

​RBI set to announce rate decision on June 6, with expectations of a cut to 5.75%. Analysis shows negative returns in the Nifty Bank Index on rate...

Gaudenz Schneider

India: Real GDP Grew 7.4%YoY in Jan-Mar'25; Likely to Accelerate to 8% This Year

​RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Month Ahead: Key Events in June 2025

​Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.

Gaudenz Schneider

Major indices continued their rally in May, but caution is advised due to seasonal patterns. Implied volatility has decreased but remains high in...

RBI expected to cut rates to 5.75% on June 6, 2025. Analysis shows negative returns for State Bank of India on rate cut days, offering insights...

RBI set to announce rate decision on June 6, with expectations of a cut to 5.75%. Analysis shows negative returns in the Nifty Bank Index on rate...

RGDP grew 7.4% in Q4FY25 driven by strong PCE, and GFCF boosted by a 25bp rate cut in Feb'25. With interest rates to decline 100bp, and income tax...

Central bank rate decisions, index rebalancings, and upcoming South Korea presidential elections are key events to watch for in Asia-Pacific in June.