Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> has been falling for 5 straight weeks: it is extremely oversold, according to our model.
</li>
<li>The index should rebound this week, or the next, in any case the downside should be limited at this point.
</li>
<li>A rally could bring the index back to 25398, but we are witnessing a BEARISH pattern at the moment, so any rebound rally will be short-lived.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index has been falling for 5 straight weeks: it is extremely oversold, according to our model.

The index should rebound this week, or the next, in any case the downside should be limited at this point.

A rally could bring the index back to 25398, but we are witnessing a BEARISH pattern at the moment, so any rebound rally will be short-lived.


NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 - August 8.</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200 INDEX</a> </li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is the only stock clearly overbought. </li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 4 - August 8.

OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , NIFTY Index , KOSPI 200 INDEX 

OVERBOUGHT: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the only stock clearly overbought. 


Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June's larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.</li>
<li>
Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets - a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. </li>
<li>
Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.</li>
</ul>



Event Preview: The Reserve Bank of India will announce its next policy decision on Wednesday, August 6, 2025. After June's larger-than-expected 0.5% rate cut, consensus expects no change.

Market Reaction History: The NIFTY 50 has historically moved more when the RBI surprises markets - a 27% occurrence rate over the past decade. 

Options Perspective: This Insight investigates past market behavior during comparable RBI policy announcements and contrasts it with what current option pricing implies for this week’s move.


RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

<ul>
<li>As outlined by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> , the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> 's September rebalance ends July 31st, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented on September 29th.</li>
<li>The index has been pulling back for 3 weeks, it's oversold according to our model, 75% probability of reversing up this week.</li>
<li>Lower support limit would be 24319, while a rally could take the index to 25642 across a couple of weeks. The rally won't last more than 2 weeks probably.
</li>
</ul>


As outlined by Brian Freitas , the NIFTY Index 's September rebalance ends July 31st, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented on September 29th.
The index has been pulling back for 3 weeks, it's oversold according to our model, 75% probability of reversing up this week.
Lower support limit would be 24319, while a rally could take the index to 25642 across a couple of weeks. The rally won't last more than 2 weeks probably.



NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> rally may stop briefly, for 1 or 2 weeks. At the moment the index hast started a very mild pullback, after closing higher for 2 consecutive weeks.</li>
<li>Usually the rally does not last more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered although there has been occasions where it lasted 7 weeks.</li>
<li>Two scenarios lie ahead: (1) if this week closes higher, expect a near-term pullback; or (2) if it closes lower—possibly continuing into next week—the rally may resume afterward.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index rally may stop briefly, for 1 or 2 weeks. At the moment the index hast started a very mild pullback, after closing higher for 2 consecutive weeks.
Usually the rally does not last more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered although there has been occasions where it lasted 7 weeks.
Two scenarios lie ahead: (1) if this week closes higher, expect a near-term pullback; or (2) if it closes lower—possibly continuing into next week—the rally may resume afterward.


NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)

The NIFTY Index is extremely oversold and expected to rebound soon, but any rally will be short-lived due to a bearish pattern. Profit targets and...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Nico Rosti

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

A data-driven look at how the Nifty 50 has historically reacted to RBI policy decisions - and what current options pricing signals for August 6.

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review

The NIFTY Index shows potential for a reversal up this week and a rally to 25642 over a 2 weeks period, on the background of the looming September...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook

NIFTY Index rally may pause briefly for 1-2 weeks as mild pullback could begin, after 2 consecutive weeks of gains. A potential rebound depends on...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY 50 Index Outlook: Rebound Rally in Sight? (Profit Targets)

​The NIFTY Index is extremely oversold and expected to rebound soon, but any rally will be short-lived due to a bearish pattern. Profit targets and...

Nico Rosti

Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of August 4 – August 8

​Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

Nico Rosti

RBI Rate Decision on 6 Aug: Nifty 50’s Historic Moves Matched by Options Market

A data-driven look at how the Nifty 50 has historically reacted to RBI policy decisions - and what current options pricing signals for August 6.

Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review

The NIFTY Index shows potential for a reversal up this week and a rally to 25642 over a 2 weeks period, on the background of the looming September...

Nico Rosti

NIFTY Index at a Crossroads: Two-Week Tactical Outlook

​NIFTY Index rally may pause briefly for 1-2 weeks as mild pullback could begin, after 2 consecutive weeks of gains. A potential rebound depends on...

Nico Rosti

The NIFTY Index is extremely oversold and expected to rebound soon, but any rally will be short-lived due to a bearish pattern. Profit targets and...

Our WEEKLY tactical models show oversold conditions for China Mobile, NIFTY Index, and KOSPI 200 Index, while NVIDIA Corp is the only stock...

NIFTY Index rally may pause briefly for 1-2 weeks as mild pullback could begin, after 2 consecutive weeks of gains. A potential rebound depends on...