Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntpc-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43951:1" rel="noopener">NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN)</a> is looking to raise INR 100bn (US$1.19bn) in its IPO. That will value the company at INR 910bn (US$10.8bn) at the top end. </li>
<li>The anchor allocations will be completed early next week, and the stock is expected to start trading on 27 November.</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices with the earliest inclusion scheduled for June 2025. So, limited passive buying in the medium-term.</li>
</ul>



NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) is looking to raise INR 100bn (US$1.19bn) in its IPO. That will value the company at INR 910bn (US$10.8bn) at the top end. 
The anchor allocations will be completed early next week, and the stock is expected to start trading on 27 November.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to global indices with the earliest inclusion scheduled for June 2025. So, limited passive buying in the medium-term.


NTPC Green Energy IPO: Offer Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> lately has been correcting for longer than usual, we have to go back to early 2023 to see similar pullbacks.</li>
<li>We don't see any issue with the general trend structure so far, the index's been uptrending strongly since mid-June 2022, this pullback started in September is not worrying us.</li>
<li>We see an opportunity to buy at better prices, hoping to see the index restarting its main uptrend soon. This insight provides analysis to help you reenter the LONG trade.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index lately has been correcting for longer than usual, we have to go back to early 2023 to see similar pullbacks.
We don't see any issue with the general trend structure so far, the index's been uptrending strongly since mid-June 2022, this pullback started in September is not worrying us.
We see an opportunity to buy at better prices, hoping to see the index restarting its main uptrend soon. This insight provides analysis to help you reenter the LONG trade.


EQD | Dropping NIFTY 50 Could Find Support Very Soon

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>Passing of tier-1 event risks resulted in risk premia compression. Nifty50 IVs back down to 12.8% as a result. IV selloff exacerbated by the upcoming market holidays.    </li>
<li>Vol Regime: Fears of prolonged "High &amp; Up" vol-state were quashed. Vol Regime Model has switched to "High &amp; Down" state. Re-establish Short Vega/ Smile-selling structures. </li>
<li>Markdowns reflected in Vol Surface characteristics - Term Structure/ Smile/ Skew. PCR &amp; OI indicate low participation in Put-strikes. </li>
</ul>


Passing of tier-1 event risks resulted in risk premia compression. Nifty50 IVs back down to 12.8% as a result. IV selloff exacerbated by the upcoming market holidays.    
Vol Regime: Fears of prolonged "High &amp; Up" vol-state were quashed. Vol Regime Model has switched to "High &amp; Down" state. Re-establish Short Vega/ Smile-selling structures. 
Markdowns reflected in Vol Surface characteristics - Term Structure/ Smile/ Skew. PCR &amp; OI indicate low participation in Put-strikes. 


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Risk Premia Marked Down as Tier1 Event Risks Drop off the Calendar

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>US equity indices led global markets in a post-election sharp decline in implied volatility.</li>
<li>With only 34 trading days left in 2024, investors might want to hedge the gains from a profitable year with tactical long puts.</li>
<li>Several markets make good candidates for long put positions due to a combination of cheap options and potentially bearish factors. One example being the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> </li>
</ul>


US equity indices led global markets in a post-election sharp decline in implied volatility.
With only 34 trading days left in 2024, investors might want to hedge the gains from a profitable year with tactical long puts.
Several markets make good candidates for long put positions due to a combination of cheap options and potentially bearish factors. One example being the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) 


EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – 34 Trading Days Left in 2024, Year-End Positioning.

<ul>
<li>IVs continue moving higher in spite of low RV. Nifty50 &amp; BankNifty Monthly IVs at 14.7% &amp; 16.8% respectively. Re-pricing exaggerated in Short-dated options as they cover U.S. Elections.</li>
<li>Vol-Regime Switching Model now in "High &amp; Up" state. Vol-state switch triggers scale back of risk-premia capture strategies. Consider long Gamma exposure via buying Straddles on a delta-hedged basis.</li>
<li>Higher IVs not translating to Skew/ Smile extensions. Vol-curve Term-structure has transitioned from Contango to Backwardation - front-end vol-differential at +1.6 vols.</li>
</ul>


IVs continue moving higher in spite of low RV. Nifty50 &amp; BankNifty Monthly IVs at 14.7% &amp; 16.8% respectively. Re-pricing exaggerated in Short-dated options as they cover U.S. Elections.
Vol-Regime Switching Model now in "High &amp; Up" state. Vol-state switch triggers scale back of risk-premia capture strategies. Consider long Gamma exposure via buying Straddles on a delta-hedged basis.
Higher IVs not translating to Skew/ Smile extensions. Vol-curve Term-structure has transitioned from Contango to Backwardation - front-end vol-differential at +1.6 vols.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / US Elections & FOMC Event-Risk Push Vol Regime into High & Up State

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

NTPC Green Energy IPO: Offer Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

NTPC Green Energy is looking to raise INR 100bn (US$1.19bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at up to INR 910bn (US$10.8bn). The earliest index...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Dropping NIFTY 50 Could Find Support Very Soon

The NIFTY 50 is currently experiencing a longer-than-usual correction, but the overall trend remains strong. This pullback presents a buying...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Risk Premia Marked Down as Tier1 Event Risks Drop off the Calendar

Passing of tier-1 event risks led to risk premia compression, Nifty50 IVs down to 12.8%. Vol Regime Model shifted to "High & Down" state.

AceGama Advisors

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – 34 Trading Days Left in 2024, Year-End Positioning.

Global equity indices saw a post-election volatility drop, making options cheap in several, but not all, markets. Consider hedging gains with...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD / NSE Vol Update / US Elections & FOMC Event-Risk Push Vol Regime into High & Up State

Event Risk Notice - MSCI Index Review (07.11.2024). HDFC Bank to receive weightage increase. $2 Bio inflows expected. Potential tier-1 event risk,...

AceGama Advisors

NTPC Green Energy IPO: Offer Details & Index Inclusion Timeline

NTPC Green Energy is looking to raise INR 100bn (US$1.19bn) in its IPO, valuing the company at up to INR 910bn (US$10.8bn). The earliest index...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Dropping NIFTY 50 Could Find Support Very Soon

​The NIFTY 50 is currently experiencing a longer-than-usual correction, but the overall trend remains strong. This pullback presents a buying...

Nico Rosti

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Risk Premia Marked Down as Tier1 Event Risks Drop off the Calendar

​Passing of tier-1 event risks led to risk premia compression, Nifty50 IVs down to 12.8%. Vol Regime Model shifted to "High & Down" state.

AceGama Advisors

EQD | Global Option Implied Volatility – 34 Trading Days Left in 2024, Year-End Positioning.

​Global equity indices saw a post-election volatility drop, making options cheap in several, but not all, markets. Consider hedging gains with...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD / NSE Vol Update / US Elections & FOMC Event-Risk Push Vol Regime into High & Up State

Event Risk Notice - MSCI Index Review (07.11.2024). HDFC Bank to receive weightage increase. $2 Bio inflows expected. Potential tier-1 event risk,...

AceGama Advisors

The NIFTY 50 is currently experiencing a longer-than-usual correction, but the overall trend remains strong. This pullback presents a buying...

Passing of tier-1 event risks led to risk premia compression, Nifty50 IVs down to 12.8%. Vol Regime Model shifted to "High & Down" state.

Global equity indices saw a post-election volatility drop, making options cheap in several, but not all, markets. Consider hedging gains with...