Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-it-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36059:1" rel="noopener">Nifty IT Index</a>, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF</a> rebalance at the close today.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices is US$2.6bn and there are 26 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest impact are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-total-gas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28352:1" rel="noopener">Adani Total Gas</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-hotels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5774:1" rel="noopener">Indian Hotels</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jio-financial-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40042:1" rel="noopener">Jio Financial</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">IRCTC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crompton-greaves-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6248:1" rel="noopener">Crompton Greaves</a>.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, Nifty Bank Index, Nifty IT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close today.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$2.6bn and there are 26 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest impact are Britannia Industries, Bharat Petroleum, Adani Total Gas, Indian Hotels, Jio Financial, IRCTC, Zomato, Federal Bank, Union Bank Of India and Crompton Greaves.


NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Today; Round-Trip US$2.6bn

<ul>
<li>We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.</li>
<li>India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.</li>
<li>A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.</li>
</ul>


We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.
India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.
A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.


Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia

Event-Driven

L&T Technology Services Limited / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In line with our forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oracle-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7775:1" rel="noopener">Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-t-technology-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23601:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-it-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36059:1" rel="noopener">Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-t-technology-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23601:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;T Technology Services (LTTS IN)</a> is also being excluded from the F&amp;O segment at the close on 27 March. Open interest is ~900k shares and there will be unwinding.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stocks. Impact increases to 1-2 days of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


In line with our forecast, Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) replaces L&amp;T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.

L&amp;T Technology Services (LTTS IN) is also being excluded from the F&amp;O segment at the close on 27 March. Open interest is ~900k shares and there will be unwinding.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stocks. Impact increases to 1-2 days of delivery volume.


Nifty IT Index Rebalance: Oracle Financial Services Takes a Beating but Replaces L&T Tech

<ul>
<li>The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.</li>
<li>The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.</li>
<li>Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Index Maintenance Sub-Committee of NSE Indices will meet on 21 February to conduct a semi-annual and quarterly review of stocks in various Nifty equity indices.
The changes will be announced after market close tomorrow and will be implemented at the close of trading on 28 March.
Based on the forecast index changes and capping changes for a few indices, the round-trip trade will be over US$2.5bn and many stocks will have over 0.5x ADV to trade.


India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

Oracle Financial Services / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oracle-financial-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7775:1" rel="noopener">Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-t-technology-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23601:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-it-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36059:1" rel="noopener">Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-t-technology-services-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23601:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN)</a> will also be excluded from the F&amp;O segment at the close on 27 March, so there could be some interesting dynamics at play.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stock. The impact in terms of delivery volume increases to 1.6-2.2x.</li>
</ul>



Oracle Financial Services (OFSS IN) could replace L&amp;T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) in the Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX) at the March rebalance.

L&amp;T Technology Services Limited (LTTS IN) will also be excluded from the F&amp;O segment at the close on 27 March, so there could be some interesting dynamics at play.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 0.5-0.6x ADV in the stock. The impact in terms of delivery volume increases to 1.6-2.2x.


Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

India

The National Stock Exchange Nifty NSEIT Index is a free float capitalization weighted index representing the IT sector of the India market. The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of 1996. The base value was revised from 1000 to 100 effective May 28, 2004.

Nifty IT Index (NSEIT INDEX)

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Today; Round-Trip US$2.6bn

The March rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close today. The round-trip trade is US$2.6bn and there are 26 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia

A positive start to the year for Asia index rebals has turned negative as the momentum/ value unwind began a few weeks ago. Higher volatility and a...

Brian Freitas

Nifty IT Index Rebalance: Oracle Financial Services Takes a Beating but Replaces L&T Tech

Oracle Financial Svcs replaces L&T Tech in the CNXIT Index in March. OFSS has been on a rollercoaster while LTTS has stayed out of the limelight....

Brian Freitas

India: March Rebalance Announcement Tomorrow; Round-Trip Trade Over US$2.5bn

The March changes for the Nifty indices will be announced tomorrow. There are changes forecast for most indices with large AUM. Round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Nifty IT Index Rebalance Preview: Oracle Financial Services Could Replace L&T Tech

Oracle Financial could replace L&T Tech in the CNXIT index at the close 28 March. LT Tech will also be excluded from the FnO segment after the...

Brian Freitas