'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• RESULTS - 15th APRIL •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/900/original/image_79635701821618518159643.png?1618518161" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200900"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 15th APRIL •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/901/original/image_41828619831618518259175.png?1618518259" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200901"></figure>REVISIONS/FORECASTS - All 18 forecasts/revisions scored positively, with small-cap semiconductor material specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furuya-metal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5196:1" rel="noopener">Furuya Metal (7826 JP)</a> leading the pack. Our focus will be on large caps <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiwa-house-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:237:1" rel="noopener">Daiwa House (1925 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nihon-kohden-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7668:1" rel="noopener">Nihon Kohden (6849 JP)</a>. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/904/original/image_98823158241618520568301.png?1618520570" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200904"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/905/original/image_36126897251618520600152.png?1618520601" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200905"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/200/906/original/image_17001945261618520623051.png?1618520623" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="200906"></figure>

• RESULTS - 15th APRIL •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 15th APRIL •REVISIONS/FORECASTS - All 18 forecasts/revisions scored positively, with small-cap semiconductor material specialist Furuya Metal (7826 JP) leading the pack. Our focus will be on large caps Daiwa House (1925 JP) and Nihon Kohden (6849 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​​​15 - Daiwa House & Nihon Kohden

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics (300760 CH)

<ul>
<li>Mindray is seeking to raise at least USD500m via a Hong Kong listing. Huatai and JPM are the deal sponsors.</li>
<li>This note covers Mindray's in vitro diagnostics, patient monitoring and life support, medical imaging, and peer valuation.</li>
<li>We also discuss our preliminary thoughts on valuation based on A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Mindray is seeking to raise at least USD500m via a Hong Kong listing. Huatai and JPM are the deal sponsors.
This note covers Mindray's in vitro diagnostics, patient monitoring and life support, medical imaging, and peer valuation.
We also discuss our preliminary thoughts on valuation based on A-H premium.


Mindray (迈瑞医疗) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time. The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time.  The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

The suggestion of government orchestration against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono</a>’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the Nikkei that the Japanese Health Ministry is considering setting rules on new drug usage during this fiscal year, starting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono</a>’s Opdivo and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091">Astellas</a>’s Repatha. Patients may be limited to those who can see certain impact from the treatment, which in turn would mean the drug could only be prescribed at those institutions with the facilities to check…

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the Nikkei that the Japanese Health Ministry is considering setting rules on new drug usage during this fiscal year, starting with Ono’s Opdivo and Astellas’s Repatha. Patients may be limited to those who can see certain impact from the treatment, which in turn would mean the drug could only be prescribed at those institutions with the facilities to check…

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. 


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

Japan

NIHON KOHDEN CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and sells medical equipment, transformers, and power switches and devices.  The Company's products include testing equipment for cerebral nerve such as electroencephalographs, circulatory systems, diagnostic equipment, catheters, biogenic monitoring systems such as electrocardiographs used into patient monitoring systems.

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Nihon Kohden (6849 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/15 - Daiwa House & Nihon Kohden

REVISIONS/FORECASTS - All 18 forecasts/revisions scored positively, with small-cap semiconductor material specialist Furuya Metal (7826 JP) leading...

Campbell Gunn

Mindray (迈瑞医疗) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Mindray is seeking to raise at least USD500m through an A+H listing. The note covers business quality, industry context, peer valuation, and A-H...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Death Rattle for Defensives?

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Dalton has provided an...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​​​​15 - Daiwa House & Nihon Kohden

REVISIONS/FORECASTS - All 18 forecasts/revisions scored positively, with small-cap semiconductor material specialist Furuya Metal (7826 JP) leading...

Campbell Gunn

Mindray (迈瑞医疗) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Mindray is seeking to raise at least USD500m through an A+H listing. The note covers business quality, industry context, peer valuation, and A-H...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Death Rattle for Defensives?

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Dalton has provided an...

Arun George

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/15 - Daiwa House & Nihon Kohden