Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.</li>
<li>Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.</li>
<li>Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.</li>
</ul>


November’s seasonal strength extends into the U.S. Thanksgiving period, where macro markets have tended to post positive returns.
Despite the positive averages, dispersion in returns remains wide, reminding traders that seasonality is no guarantee.
Positive seasonals can align with favorable trading setups, but timing and risk management remain key.


Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

<ul>
<li>Switch 2's successful launch drives a hyper-growth cycle, which may have been confirmed by the full-year hardware forecast hike to 19 million units for FY26.</li>
<li>Despite a temporary Gross Profit Margin drop due to the initial low-margin hardware sales mix, a continued rebound could occur fueled by higher-margin software sales, especially during the holiday season.</li>
<li>The analysis concludes with a leverage-optimized directional trading strategy, utilizing a typical recommended hedge to protect against potential short-term broader market volatility risks.</li>
</ul>


Switch 2's successful launch drives a hyper-growth cycle, which may have been confirmed by the full-year hardware forecast hike to 19 million units for FY26.
Despite a temporary Gross Profit Margin drop due to the initial low-margin hardware sales mix, a continued rebound could occur fueled by higher-margin software sales, especially during the holiday season.
The analysis concludes with a leverage-optimized directional trading strategy, utilizing a typical recommended hedge to protect against potential short-term broader market volatility risks.


Nintendo Post-Earnings, Pre-Holidays: Are Profit Margins Going to Jump Back?

<ul>
<li>Mitsubishi Electric's $1 billion acquisition of Nozomi Networks is a strategic move to continue its transition from hardware manufacturing to a leading solutions provider in the expanding industrial cybersecurity market.</li>
<li>This significant deal is expected to create growth and synergy by combining complementary strengths in operational technology (OT) security.</li>
<li>The acquisition represents a major commitment to digital transformation, which is anticipated to have a positive impact on Mitsubishi Electric's stock performance in the 5-10 year horizon.</li>
</ul>


Mitsubishi Electric's $1 billion acquisition of Nozomi Networks is a strategic move to continue its transition from hardware manufacturing to a leading solutions provider in the expanding industrial cybersecurity market.
This significant deal is expected to create growth and synergy by combining complementary strengths in operational technology (OT) security.
The acquisition represents a major commitment to digital transformation, which is anticipated to have a positive impact on Mitsubishi Electric's stock performance in the 5-10 year horizon.


Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst

<ul>
<li>Implied volatility rose across most markets in October, and a continuing trend in vol premium warrants attention.  </li>
<li>November has historically produced strong price returns and positive volatility premiums across global markets.</li>
<li>Implied volatility displays clustering across markets, with two distinct groupings beginning to take shape.</li>
</ul>


Implied volatility rose across most markets in October, and a continuing trend in vol premium warrants attention.  
November has historically produced strong price returns and positive volatility premiums across global markets.
Implied volatility displays clustering across markets, with two distinct groupings beginning to take shape.


Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>A lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.</li>
</ul>



Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.

Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.


Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley

Nintendo Post-Earnings, Pre-Holidays: Are Profit Margins Going to Jump Back?

Switch 2's successful launch drives hyper-growth, with a forecast hike to 19 million units for FY26. Potential rebound in Gross Profit Margin...

Jay Cameron

Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst

Mitsub. Elec had exciting H1 results Fri.: revenue 2732.5B (88.9B) and operating profit 224.3B (+47.6B), driven by Infrastructure sales, revenues...

Jay Cameron

Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Rising volatility and firm seasonal patterns define November’s setup, though shifts in vol premium suggest a more fragile market backdrop.

John Ley

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Following today's rally, Advantest's weight in the Nikkei225 is ~11.2%. At that level, the stock will be capped in March and then again in...

Brian Freitas

Macro Markets and the U.S. Thanksgiving Effect: Shedding Light on Historical Patterns

Examining 25 years of macro market behavior around U.S. Thanksgiving to uncover recurring seasonal patterns and what they may reveal about risk and...

John Ley

Nintendo Post-Earnings, Pre-Holidays: Are Profit Margins Going to Jump Back?

​Switch 2's successful launch drives hyper-growth, with a forecast hike to 19 million units for FY26. Potential rebound in Gross Profit Margin...

Jay Cameron

Mitsubishi Electric’s Nozomi Networks Acquisition, a Potential Catalyst

Mitsub. Elec had exciting H1 results Fri.: revenue 2732.5B (88.9B) and operating profit 224.3B (+47.6B), driven by Infrastructure sales, revenues...

Jay Cameron

Macro Monthly (November): Rising Volatility, Positive Seasonals and a Concerning Trend

Rising volatility and firm seasonal patterns define November’s setup, though shifts in vol premium suggest a more fragile market backdrop.

John Ley

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Following today's rally, Advantest's weight in the Nikkei225 is ~11.2%. At that level, the stock will be capped in March and then again in...

Brian Freitas

Switch 2's successful launch drives hyper-growth, with a forecast hike to 19 million units for FY26. Potential rebound in Gross Profit Margin...