HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.</li><li>They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.</li><li>Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Bill and Chris use LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google Gemini to gather and synthesize investment outlooks from experts.They create an alpha capture portfolio based on sentiment, risk premia, and expected returns across assets, regions, sectors, and ETFs.Using their methodology, they design a portfolio of 10-12 ETFs for long and short positions, ensuring a balance of exposures and avoiding overlap in stock constituents.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.</li>
</ul>


Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a potential inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">NKY INDEX</a> in March.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of shorts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> as the stock has underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> by a lot.</li>
<li>The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> changes in March.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Abrupt change in course for HSI which bottomed on Monday and moved higher in a straight line the rest of the week. Price action was aided by stabilization in Tencent.</li>
<li>Implied vols were softer on the week and have a fairly large spread to historic vols. Caution warranted for long vol positions as this can persist with holidays dead ahead.  </li>
<li>Call volumes have rebounded to normal levels with the strong price action.</li>
</ul>


Abrupt change in course for HSI which bottomed on Monday and moved higher in a straight line the rest of the week. Price action was aided by stabilization in Tencent.
Implied vols were softer on the week and have a fairly large spread to historic vols. Caution warranted for long vol positions as this can persist with holidays dead ahead.  
Call volumes have rebounded to normal levels with the strong price action.


EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>After spending the last few months going nowhere, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> may have started to trend up in September 2024, now showing a series of progressively higher WEEKLY highs.</li>
<li>Currently the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> is pulling back (two weeks down in a row at the moment of writing), but this has to be confirmed at the Close, on Friday.</li>
<li>This pullback could be an opportunity to add positions at a favorable price and ride the uptrend to a new high &gt; 40398 (latest high from 2 weeks ago).</li>
</ul>


After spending the last few months going nowhere, the Nikkei 225 INDEX may have started to trend up in September 2024, now showing a series of progressively higher WEEKLY highs.
Currently the Nikkei 225 is pulling back (two weeks down in a row at the moment of writing), but this has to be confirmed at the Close, on Friday.
This pullback could be an opportunity to add positions at a favorable price and ride the uptrend to a new high &gt; 40398 (latest high from 2 weeks ago).


Nikkei 225 Started To Trend Up: Where to Buy the Dip?

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

Mark Connors, Christopher Rose, and Bill discuss market sell-offs, portfolio design, stablecoins, Bitcoin concentration, AI research tools, and...

William Mann

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

These 9 stocks continue to remain potential deletes in February along with 2 more now. There has been an increase in shorts as the stocks have, on...

Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Over the next 2 months, Kokusai Electric has a large lock-up expiry, a near certain index deletion and a potential index inclusion. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag

HSI saw a sudden upward trend, supported by Tencent's stability. Implied vols softer with caution warranted for long vol positions due to evolving...

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Started To Trend Up: Where to Buy the Dip?

The Nikkei 225 Index has corrected for 3 weeks. It has reached a support area that was identified in this insight as an excellent support area to...

Nico Rosti

Inauguration, The Trump Trade & Building Smarter Portfolios with LLMs | The New Barbarians #004

Mark Connors, Christopher Rose, and Bill discuss market sell-offs, portfolio design, stablecoins, Bitcoin concentration, AI research tools, and...

William Mann

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

These 9 stocks continue to remain potential deletes in February along with 2 more now. There has been an increase in shorts as the stocks have, on...

Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Over the next 2 months, Kokusai Electric has a large lock-up expiry, a near certain index deletion and a potential index inclusion. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag

​HSI saw a sudden upward trend, supported by Tencent's stability. Implied vols softer with caution warranted for long vol positions due to evolving...

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Started To Trend Up: Where to Buy the Dip?

The Nikkei 225 Index has corrected for 3 weeks. It has reached a support area that was identified in this insight as an excellent support area to...

Nico Rosti

HSI saw a sudden upward trend, supported by Tencent's stability. Implied vols softer with caution warranted for long vol positions due to evolving...