Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>With US bonds oversold, we expect the Japanese Yen to  strengthen</li>
<li>Supplementary Budget from the LDP as new cabinet's approval rating drops</li>
<li>The broad Japanese indices will struggle here as this plays out</li>
</ul>


With US bonds oversold, we expect the Japanese Yen to  strengthen
Supplementary Budget from the LDP as new cabinet's approval rating drops
The broad Japanese indices will struggle here as this plays out


Tactical Trading - JPY Weakness Has Likely Run Its Course for Now

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.</li>
<li>National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.</li>
<li>The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.</li>
</ul>



Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) volatility is trading at historically high levels, and the skew is steep.
National, regional and global catalysts provide the potential for further near-term market turbulence. Downside risk persists.
The current vol environment lends itself to tactical option trades, such as put spreads or risk reversals.


EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>In our last Nikkei 225 insight we predicted that the Nikkei 225 INDEX was overbought and about to pullback and that is exactly what happened the following week.</li>
<li>We also reiterated our view about the index's overall trend, not looking good, and the fact that our seasonal quantitative model point to a coin flip scenario (up/down) for October.</li>
<li>This week the index gapped up and the current SHORT pattern model is showing a good chance to rally from here. Let's check how high it can go.</li>
</ul>


In our last Nikkei 225 insight we predicted that the Nikkei 225 INDEX was overbought and about to pullback and that is exactly what happened the following week.
We also reiterated our view about the index's overall trend, not looking good, and the fact that our seasonal quantitative model point to a coin flip scenario (up/down) for October.
This week the index gapped up and the current SHORT pattern model is showing a good chance to rally from here. Let's check how high it can go.


EQD | The Nikkei Is At The Top But Could Rally A Bit More...

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Tactical Trading - JPY Weakness Has Likely Run Its Course for Now

With US government bonds oversold, the Japanese Yen is expected to strengthen causing the major Japanese indices to continue to tread water

Rikki Malik

EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | The Nikkei Is At The Top But Could Rally A Bit More...

The Nikkei 225 index trend for 2024 remains unstable, but right now is showing potential for a rally. Long term view remains negative, but the...

Nico Rosti

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

Tactical Trading - JPY Weakness Has Likely Run Its Course for Now

With ​US government bonds oversold, the Japanese Yen is expected to strengthen causing the major Japanese indices to continue to tread water

Rikki Malik

EQD | Nikkei 225 - Persistent Volatility Amid Election Uncertainty: Tactical Opportunities Explored

​Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | The Nikkei Is At The Top But Could Rally A Bit More...

The ​Nikkei 225 index trend for 2024 remains unstable, but right now is showing potential for a rally. Long term view remains negative, but the...

Nico Rosti

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

September Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

We review overall market performance, our investment themes, highlighting additions and substractions in the thematic portfolio.

Rikki Malik

With US government bonds oversold, the Japanese Yen is expected to strengthen causing the major Japanese indices to continue to tread water

Nikkei 225 volatility is high with steep skew. Potential for more turbulence due to various catalysts. Tactical option trades recommended.

The Nikkei 225 index trend for 2024 remains unstable, but right now is showing potential for a rally. Long term view remains negative, but the...