Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Although the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> was rallying strong early in the year, from mid-March the rally started to falter, and after a fake recovery into July, it fell again, lower.</li>
<li>Should the index go lower from last week's Close at 36581.76, the next paragraphs of this insight will indicate what price levels are strong support to buy.</li>
<li>The only doubt we have is that <strong>the index's overall trend does not look good. A correction to 33000 (or lower) is a possibility</strong> - <strong>a negative YEARLY performance</strong>.</li>
</ul>


Although the Nikkei 225 INDEX was rallying strong early in the year, from mid-March the rally started to falter, and after a fake recovery into July, it fell again, lower.
Should the index go lower from last week's Close at 36581.76, the next paragraphs of this insight will indicate what price levels are strong support to buy.
The only doubt we have is that the index's overall trend does not look good. A correction to 33000 (or lower) is a possibility - a negative YEARLY performance.


EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> has rebounded strongly in the past 2 weeks, there is a chance that it starts to pull back this week.</li>
<li>This insight will try to evaluate what support levels could be good to buy, assuming the index resumes its uptrend after the pullback. </li>
<li>The index could fall for 1 or 2 weeks, the current pullback pattern is bullish (i.e. buy-the-dip).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX has rebounded strongly in the past 2 weeks, there is a chance that it starts to pull back this week.
This insight will try to evaluate what support levels could be good to buy, assuming the index resumes its uptrend after the pullback. 
The index could fall for 1 or 2 weeks, the current pullback pattern is bullish (i.e. buy-the-dip).


EQD | What If The Nikkei 225 Pulls Back This Week? (Buy Here)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data  impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Expectations for future US interest rate cuts get dialed back - JPY impact</li>
<li>CFTC data shows speculative froth has come out of some markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data  impacting our investment themes or outlook
Expectations for future US interest rate cuts get dialed back - JPY impact
CFTC data shows speculative froth has come out of some markets


Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

<ul>
<li>JPY sensitive names and foreigner favourites are unlikely to be the next driver of the market.</li>
<li>Sectors not dependent on a weak Japanese Yen are more likely to be the next winners</li>
<li>While individual stocks will still benefit from corporate governance reforms, a rising tide will not lift all boats as it has done over the last 18 months</li>
</ul>


JPY sensitive names and foreigner favourites are unlikely to be the next driver of the market.
Sectors not dependent on a weak Japanese Yen are more likely to be the next winners
While individual stocks will still benefit from corporate governance reforms, a rising tide will not lift all boats as it has done over the last 18 months


Sectors to Look at for the Japanese Stockmarket's Next Phase

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

The Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...

Nico Rosti

EQD | What If The Nikkei 225 Pulls Back This Week? (Buy Here)

The Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded strongly for the past 2 weeks, but may pull back this week, presenting potential buy-the-dip opportunities at...

Nico Rosti

Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Rikki Malik

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Sectors to Look at for the Japanese Stockmarket's Next Phase

JPY sensitive names and foreigner favorites may not drive the market; sectors independent of a weak Yen could be the next winners.

Rikki Malik

EQD | The Nikkei 225's Trend Is Not Looking Good

The ​Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...

Nico Rosti

EQD | What If The Nikkei 225 Pulls Back This Week? (Buy Here)

​The Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded strongly for the past 2 weeks, but may pull back this week, presenting potential buy-the-dip opportunities at...

Nico Rosti

Overview #7 Speculative Positioning Review

​Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

Rikki Malik

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

Sectors to Look at for the Japanese Stockmarket's Next Phase

​JPY sensitive names and foreigner favorites may not drive the market; sectors independent of a weak Yen could be the next winners.

Rikki Malik

The Nikkei 225 INDEX rally for the year 2024 is faltering, there is potential for further correction. Short-term, this week, look at the provided...

The Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded strongly for the past 2 weeks, but may pull back this week, presenting potential buy-the-dip opportunities at...

Recent events/data have led to a dialing back of expectations for US interest rate cuts, while CFTC data indicates a decrease in speculative...

JPY sensitive names and foreigner favorites may not drive the market; sectors independent of a weak Yen could be the next winners.