Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>US interest rate expectations continue to whip markets around, even as more cracks emerge in the AI trade.</li>
<li>Japan goes for broke with its latest budget and debt issuance.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
US interest rate expectations continue to whip markets around, even as more cracks emerge in the AI trade.
Japan goes for broke with its latest budget and debt issuance.


Overview #42 – What a Difference a Day Makes!

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Nikkei rebounded and volatility eased meaningfully - implied vol giving back much of last week’s spike.</li>
<li>USD/JPY softened alongside a broader break in DXY, raising questions about the depth of demand for USD assets.</li>
<li>Option volumes dropped, and Put activity held steady with no clear directional tilt in flow.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei rebounded and volatility eased meaningfully - implied vol giving back much of last week’s spike.
USD/JPY softened alongside a broader break in DXY, raising questions about the depth of demand for USD assets.
Option volumes dropped, and Put activity held steady with no clear directional tilt in flow.


Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 14 – 18):  Vol Unwinds, Nikkei Rebounds and USD Cracks

<ul>
<li>Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.</li>
<li>Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.</li>
</ul>


Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.
Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.
Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.


Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.</li>
<li>Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.</li>
<li>The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.</li>
</ul>


From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.
Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the Nikkei 225 Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.
The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.


Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. </li>
<li>
US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.</li>
<li>
Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.</li>
</ul>



Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. 

US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.


Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Overview #42 – What a Difference a Day Makes!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Fed rate cuts, Japan spending and Lithium upgrades

Rikki Malik

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 14 – 18): Vol Unwinds, Nikkei Rebounds and USD Cracks

Nikkei rebounds, volatility eases as USD/JPY softens, raising questions about demand for USD assets. Option volumes drop with no clear directional...

John Ley

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

Nikkei and USD/JPY re-test August levels, with implied vols surging. Market movements may be driven by factors beyond tariffs, as open interest at...

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

The Nikkei 225 staged a strong rebound Tuesday, but tariff risks persist. This insight outlines key price targets to position SHORT (or cover LONG)...

Nico Rosti

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #42 – What a Difference a Day Makes!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Fed rate cuts, Japan spending and Lithium upgrades

Rikki Malik

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 14 – 18): Vol Unwinds, Nikkei Rebounds and USD Cracks

​Nikkei rebounds, volatility eases as USD/JPY softens, raising questions about demand for USD assets. Option volumes drop with no clear directional...

John Ley

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

​Nikkei and USD/JPY re-test August levels, with implied vols surging. Market movements may be driven by factors beyond tariffs, as open interest at...

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

The Nikkei 225 staged a strong rebound Tuesday, but tariff risks persist. This insight outlines key price targets to position SHORT (or cover LONG)...

Nico Rosti

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

​Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei rebounds, volatility eases as USD/JPY softens, raising questions about demand for USD assets. Option volumes drop with no clear directional...

Nikkei and USD/JPY re-test August levels, with implied vols surging. Market movements may be driven by factors beyond tariffs, as open interest at...

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...