'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/315/original/2020-07-05_13-49-05.png?1593924588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144315"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>PROFITS TIMELINE</strong> - As the pace of quarterly results begins to pick up, the downward drift of trailing and forecast profits continue. Forecast Net Income is now below the trough of the previous cycle, and the trailing number should follow soon. Supported by the Bank of Japan, aggregate market capitalisation is above that of the early 2019 profit peak. As a result, earnings multiples are at the upper end of the five-year range, although there is evidence of some resistance at these levels.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/329/original/2020-07-05_15-13-29.png?1593929621" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144329"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/331/original/2020-07-05_15-17-50.png?1593929930" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144331"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES</strong> - Our Scoring methodology tells the same 'story'. We are one to two quarters away from the bottom of this earnings cycle - a bottom that is likely to match that of 2009. Whether a 10% decline in market value from pre-COVID-19 levels is sufficient 'recognition' of the temporary, and in some cases, permanent, impairment of the earnings generation capability and momentum remains to be seen. We suspect the coming 'next wave' of downward revisions, as shown by Friday's one positive to nine negative ratio, will limit any upside over the summer months. </p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>19 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 7 Positive / 2 Neutral / 10 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>:-2.0</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue: </strong>-7.8% Quarter YoY* / +3.1% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.4ppt</li>
</ul>
<div class="content-remarks"><p>* Excluding Kasumigaseki Capital</p></div>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>7 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 0 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -15.3</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
PROFITS TIMELINE - As the pace of quarterly results begins to pick up, the downward drift of trailing and forecast profits continue. Forecast Net Income is now below the trough of the previous cycle, and the trailing number should follow soon. Supported by the Bank of Japan, aggregate market capitalisation is above that of the early 2019 profit peak. As a result, earnings multiples are at the upper end of the five-year range, although there is evidence of some resistance at these levels.
Source • Japan Analytics
RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - Our Scoring methodology tells the same 'story'. We are one to two quarters away from the bottom of this earnings cycle - a bottom that is likely to match that of 2009. Whether a 10% decline in market value from pre-COVID-19 levels is sufficient 'recognition' of the temporary, and in some cases, permanent, impairment of the earnings generation capability and momentum remains to be seen. We suspect the coming 'next wave' of downward revisions, as shown by Friday's one positive to nine negative ratio, will limit any upside over the summer months. 
DAILY STATS
19 Quarterly Results


Results Score: 7 Positive / 2 Neutral / 10 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-2.0

Average % Change in Revenue: -7.8% Quarter YoY* / +3.1% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.4ppt

* Excluding Kasumigaseki Capital
 7 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 0 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -15.3


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 3rd July • The Next Wave

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nikkon Holdings: Oasis’s 7.6% stake adds momentum to Farallon-backed real estate monetization and capital returns, with low ROE, undervalued assets, and improving allocation sustaining upside. </li>
<li>Niterra Co., Ltd.: ValueAct’s 5.3% stake may push sharper focus, ICE cash harvesting, cross-shareholding reduction, and higher buybacks, accelerating simplification toward higher-margin ceramics and semiconductor exposure.</li>
<li>A&amp;D HOLON Holdings: Strategic Capital’s 5.3% stake targets conglomerate discount, seeking capital allocation reform as profitable semiconductor operations remain undervalued within mixed-performing measurement and healthcare segments.</li>
</ul>


Nikkon Holdings: Oasis’s 7.6% stake adds momentum to Farallon-backed real estate monetization and capital returns, with low ROE, undervalued assets, and improving allocation sustaining upside. 
Niterra Co., Ltd.: ValueAct’s 5.3% stake may push sharper focus, ICE cash harvesting, cross-shareholding reduction, and higher buybacks, accelerating simplification toward higher-margin ceramics and semiconductor exposure.
A&amp;D HOLON Holdings: Strategic Capital’s 5.3% stake targets conglomerate discount, seeking capital allocation reform as profitable semiconductor operations remain undervalued within mixed-performing measurement and healthcare segments.


Japan Activist Briefs | Nikkon, Niterra, A&D Holon

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tenma-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11900:1" rel="noopener">Tenma Corp (7958 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28432:1" rel="noopener">OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>. </em></strong>
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proto-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2511:1" rel="noopener">Proto Corp (4298 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>.</em></strong> </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU). 

Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Proto Corp (4298 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU). 


Merger Arb Mondays (17 Mar) - Seven & I, Tenma, Proto, OneConnect, Vesync, Tam Jai, Insignia

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naigai-trans-line-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8938:1" rel="noopener">Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soundwill-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19318:1" rel="noopener">Soundwill Holdings (878 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oneconnect-financial-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28432:1" rel="noopener">OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smart-share-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32217:1" rel="noopener">Smart Share Global (EM US)</a>.</em></strong> </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proto-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2511:1" rel="noopener">Proto Corp (4298 JP)</a>.</em></strong> </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Naigai Trans Line (9384 JP), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Smart Share Global (EM US). 
Lowest spreads: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Proto Corp (4298 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (10 Mar) - Seven & I, Naigai, ESR, Soundwill, OneConnect, Goldlion, PointsBet

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tonami-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2615:1" rel="noopener">Tonami Holdings (9070 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-delight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16763:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Delight (9787 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smart-share-global-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32217:1" rel="noopener">Smart Share Global (EM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a>. </em></strong>
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/millennium-copthorne-hotels-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5040:1" rel="noopener">Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proto-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2511:1" rel="noopener">Proto Corp (4298 JP)</a>.</em></strong>   </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Tonami Holdings (9070 JP), Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Aeon Delight (9787 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Tam Jai International (2217 HK). 

Lowest spreads: Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Proto Corp (4298 JP).   


Merger Arb Mondays (03 Mar) - Seven & I, Makino, Aeon Delight, Tonami, Tam Jai, Vesync, Insignia

Japan

NIKKON HOLDINGS CO., LTD. transports freight by rail, trucks, ships, and airplanes.  The Company's freight includes automobile, automobile parts, and agricultural machinery.  In addition to freight services, the Company provides warehousing and packaging services.  The Company also offers customs clearing and casualty insurance services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Nikkon Holdings (9072 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 3rd July • The Next Wave

PROFITS TIMELINE - As the pace of quarterly results begins to pick up, the downward drift of trailing and forecast profits continue. Forecast Net...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Activist Briefs | Nikkon, Niterra, A&D Holon

Activists taking new stakes in Nikkon Holdings, Niterra, and A&D HOLON aim to unlock value through strategic changes and capital returns in...

Mark Chadwick

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Mar) - Seven & I, Tenma, Proto, OneConnect, Vesync, Tam Jai, Insignia

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan,...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (10 Mar) - Seven & I, Naigai, ESR, Soundwill, OneConnect, Goldlion, PointsBet

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan,...

Arun George

Merger Arb Mondays (03 Mar) - Seven & I, Makino, Aeon Delight, Tonami, Tam Jai, Vesync, Insignia

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan,...

Arun George

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52-week Range

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