IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">Vinfast (VFS US)</a>, a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. </li>
<li>Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.</li>
<li>VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  </li>
</ul>



Vinfast (VFS US), a Vietnamese EV manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade on 14 August. 
Due to the low float, the shares have been on a wild ride, with the last close of US$6.56 materially below the high of US$82.35 per share.
VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and frothy valuation.  


2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (1905332D VN)</a>, a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, completed its merger with Black Spade. </li>
<li>The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. </li>
<li>VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  </li>
</ul>



VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), completed its merger with Black Spade. 
The shares closed 3.7x up on the first day with a market cap of US$86bn. The pop is partly due to low float resulting from the controlling shareholder's 99.0% stake. 
VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to peers on growth-adjusted multiples.  


Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zeekr-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:117508" rel="noopener">ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.
In ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing operating losses and FCF burn.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.</li>
<li>ZEEKR has launched three models - the luxury shooting brake coupe ZEEKR 001, the luxury pure electric MPV – ZEEKR 009 and the new luxury versatile SUV – ZEEKR X.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on bestselling premium BEVs, rapid vehicle sales growth, rising gross margin, debt-free balance sheet and a favourable cash conversion cycle.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has filed for a US$500 million IPO to list on the NYSE.
ZEEKR has launched three models - the luxury shooting brake coupe ZEEKR 001, the luxury pure electric MPV – ZEEKR 009 and the new luxury versatile SUV – ZEEKR X.
The bull case rests on bestselling premium BEVs, rapid vehicle sales growth, rising gross margin, debt-free balance sheet and a favourable cash conversion cycle.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Aquila Acquisition Corporation / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SPACs - remember them? US offerings in 2021 topped ~US$150bn, falling to US$13bn in 2022. Singapore joined the bandwagon in January 2022  and Hong Kong two months later.</li>
<li>That Hong Kong stock is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aquila-acquisition-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35435:1" rel="noopener">Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK)</a>, and it recently announced a merger with ZG Group, a Chinese steel trading website.</li>
<li>That's positive. Less positive is how de-SPACed shares tend to trade in the US. </li>
</ul>


SPACs - remember them? US offerings in 2021 topped ~US$150bn, falling to US$13bn in 2022. Singapore joined the bandwagon in January 2022  and Hong Kong two months later.
That Hong Kong stock is Aquila Acquisition Corporation (7836 HK), and it recently announced a merger with ZG Group, a Chinese steel trading website.
That's positive. Less positive is how de-SPACed shares tend to trade in the US. 


United States

Nikola Corporation operates as a zero-emissions transportation and infrastructure solution provider. The Company is a designer and manufacturer of battery-electric and hydrogen-electric vehicles, electric vehicle drivetrains, vehicle components, energy storage systems, and hydrogen fueling station infrastructure.

Nikola Corp (NKLA US)

2024 High Conviction: VinFast (VFS US) – Heading for Trouble

VinFast remains an avoid due to related party-driven EV sales, declining customer traction, operating losses, cash burn, equity raise overhang and...

Arun George

VinFast: Inexplicable Valuation

VinFast faces headwinds of poor reviews, declining customer traction, ongoing losses and cash burn. VinFast is trading at a material premium to...

Arun George

ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on growth slowdown in the second-largest business, high related-parties dependence, Virdi/CEVT gross margin pressure, ongoing...

Arun George

ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on bestselling premium BEVs, rapid vehicle sales growth, rising gross margin, debt-free balance sheet and a favourable cash...

Arun George

Aquila Acquisition: The De-SPACed Arb

The gross spread to the redemption price is 4.8%. I'd be redeeming. Shares are beyond illiquid. Unless shares were to dip here, on some volume,...

David Blennerhassett