Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance ends 31 October. We expect the changes to be announced 24 November with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in one change to the index.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact on the deletion will be much larger than that on the inclusion.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance ends 31 October. We expect the changes to be announced 24 November with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 December.
We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in one change to the index.
One way turnover is estimated at 1.6% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 2,259m. The impact on the deletion will be much larger than that on the inclusion.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

Research on International Stock Ideas, Value Punks

Value Punks

Research on International Stock Ideas

Value Punks’ mission is to deliver institutional-grade research on international stock ideas in a digestible, reader-friendly format.

At Value Punks, we blend our background in traditional value-investing with an openness to embrace a constantly and rapidly evolving investment and business landscape.

Institutional-Grade Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2021 has been a year of regulations for Chinese stocks. Alongside the intensified regulatory landscape, we have seen concerns of VIE risk resurfacing</li>
<li>There are those who have brought out the loudspeaker to drive the narrative that the risks associated with VIE is growing. We disagree.</li>
<li>The narrative that an official VIE ban is in order stems from confusion and to us seems like an uninformed attempt at connecting the regulatory dots.</li>
</ul>


2021 has been a year of regulations for Chinese stocks. Alongside the intensified regulatory landscape, we have seen concerns of VIE risk resurfacing
There are those who have brought out the loudspeaker to drive the narrative that the risks associated with VIE is growing. We disagree.
The narrative that an official VIE ban is in order stems from confusion and to us seems like an uninformed attempt at connecting the regulatory dots.


<p>Post market close on 28 May, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.</p><p>Just as we forecast, the inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ninebot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32180:1" rel="noopener">Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansure-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32182:1" rel="noopener">Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisilicon-microelectronics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32183:1" rel="noopener">VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32184:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntar-environmental-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30342:1" rel="noopener">Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-qingyi-photomask-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30351:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/traffic-control-technology-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30309:1" rel="noopener">Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hillstone-networks-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30321:1" rel="noopener">Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ningbo-solartron-technolog-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30380:1" rel="noopener">Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH)</a> have been deleted from the index.</p><p>The changes imply that a 6 month minimum listing was used. Given the increase in number of stocks that are listed for more than 1 year, this could be last review where a 6 month minimum listing history is used.</p><p>Inflows into the ETFs have continued and the impact on the inclusions and exclusions will be a few days of ADV with estimated one-way turnover at 5.3%.</p><p>The inclusions have outperformed the deletions over the last couple of months and there has been an increase in excess volume over the last couple of weeks. We would use any sharp moves in the stock to pare down existing positions in the trade.</p>

Post market close on 28 May, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX). The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.Just as we forecast, the inclusions are Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH), Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH), CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH), VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH) and Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH), while Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH), Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH), Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH), Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH) and Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH) have been deleted from the index.The changes imply that a 6 month minimum listing was used. Given the increase in number of stocks that are listed for more than 1 year, this could be last review where a 6 month minimum listing history is used.Inflows into the ETFs have continued and the impact on the inclusions and exclusions will be a few days of ADV with estimated one-way turnover at 5.3%.The inclusions have outperformed the deletions over the last couple of months and there has been an increase in excess volume over the last couple of weeks. We would use any sharp moves in the stock to pare down existing positions in the trade.

STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance: Inclusions Outperform Exclusions as Positioning Jumps

<div><p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> is a free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 50 largest stocks based on full market cap that are listed on the STAR Market.</p></div><div><p>The review period for the June rebalance ends on 30 April, the results of the rebalance will be announced towards the end of May and will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 June.</p></div><div>
<p>A maximum of 5 changes are permitted in a single review.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suntar-environmental-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30342:1" rel="noopener">Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-qingyi-photomask-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30351:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/traffic-control-technology-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30309:1" rel="noopener">Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hillstone-networks-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30321:1" rel="noopener">Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ningbo-solartron-technolog-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30380:1" rel="noopener">Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH)</a> are high probability deletions from the index at the June review.</p>
<p>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ninebot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32180:1" rel="noopener">Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansure-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32182:1" rel="noopener">Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verisilicon-microelectronics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32183:1" rel="noopener">VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32184:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH)</a> being included in the index.</p>
<p>An alternate list of possible inclusions (with a lower probability) are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-huafeng-test-con-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30367:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Huafeng Test &amp; Con-A (688200 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-orient-gene-biotech-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30379:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech-A (688298 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bio-thera-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29127:1" rel="noopener">Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hangzhou-raycloud-technolo-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30391:1" rel="noopener">Hangzhou Raycloud Technolo-A (688365 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitgen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30371:1" rel="noopener">HitGen Inc (688222 CH)</a>.</p>
<p>The expected inclusions and exclusions have been performing poorly over the last couple of months. The price falls have been accompanied by shrinking volume and the passive flow could have a larger impact on the stocks than what we had estimated earlier.</p>
<p>We recommend buying the expected inclusions and selling a highly correlated hedge basket to take advantage of the expected passive flows into the stocks.</p>
<p></p>
</div>

The SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX) is a free float market cap weighted and is made up of the 50 largest stocks based on full market cap that are listed on the STAR Market.The review period for the June rebalance ends on 30 April, the results of the rebalance will be announced towards the end of May and will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 June.
A maximum of 5 changes are permitted in a single review.
Suntar Environmental Techn-A (688101 CH), Shenzhen Qingyi Photomask Ltd (688138 CH), Traffic Control Technology Co (688015 CH), Hillstone Networks Co Ltd (688030 CH) and Ningbo Solartron Technolog-A (688299 CH) are high probability deletions from the index at the June review.
There is a high probability of Ninebot Ltd (689009 CH), Sansure Biotech Inc (688289 CH), CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH), VeriSilicon Microelectronics (688521 CH) and Cathay Biotech Inc (688065 CH) being included in the index.
An alternate list of possible inclusions (with a lower probability) are Beijing Huafeng Test &amp; Con-A (688200 CH), Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech-A (688298 CH), Bio-Thera Solutions Ltd (688177 CH), Hangzhou Raycloud Technolo-A (688365 CH) and HitGen Inc (688222 CH).
The expected inclusions and exclusions have been performing poorly over the last couple of months. The price falls have been accompanied by shrinking volume and the passive flow could have a larger impact on the stocks than what we had estimated earlier.
We recommend buying the expected inclusions and selling a highly correlated hedge basket to take advantage of the expected passive flows into the stocks.



STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance June Preview: Falling Volumes Increasing Impact

China

Ninebot Limited researches, develops, and manufactures robots. The Company produces and markets balance bikes, scooters, children cars, karts, smart home service robots, intelligent public service robots, and other products. Ninebot markets its products across worldwide.

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Ninebot (689009 CH)

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Bigger Tracking AUM = Bigger Impact

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Brian Freitas

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This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Governance: The bottom-line on VIE

2021 has been a year of regulations for Chinese stocks. Alongside the intensified regulatory landscape, we have seen concerns of VIE risk resurfacing

Value Punks

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There are 5 changes to the STAR50 Index at the June review. The inclusions have outperformed the deletions and positioning has jumped sharply in...

Brian Freitas

STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance June Preview: Falling Volumes Increasing Impact

We see 5 changes to the STAR50 Index at the June review. The deletions are high probability, but there is uncertainty on the inclusions due to a...

Brian Freitas

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