Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns</li>
<li>In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business</li>
<li>In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing</li>
</ul>


In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns
In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business
In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing


Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>ZTO's market share losses may accelerate as peers continue to cut prices. Worse yet, margins of its competitors are improving, which will sustain the war for a longer time;</li>
<li>ZTO has maintained profitability growth despite the price war, but we think this situation is unsustainable. Management will eventually need to sacrifice profitability or suffer accelerated share loss. </li>
<li>We now take a more bearish view on ZTO as we see no quick solution to the profit and market share balancing act. </li>
</ul>


ZTO's market share losses may accelerate as peers continue to cut prices. Worse yet, margins of its competitors are improving, which will sustain the war for a longer time;
ZTO has maintained profitability growth despite the price war, but we think this situation is unsustainable. Management will eventually need to sacrifice profitability or suffer accelerated share loss. 
We now take a more bearish view on ZTO as we see no quick solution to the profit and market share balancing act. 


China Logistics (Part 1): ZTO Has a Unit Economics Problem

<ul>
<li>Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months</li>
<li>We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424</li>
<li>We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space</li>
</ul>


Volume growth &amp; price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months
We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424
We finish with a review 2024's winners and losers in China's ecomm fulfillment space


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

<ul>
<li>SF's revenue base is far larger, and in Q324 SF's revenue also grew faster than JD Logistics</li>
<li>SF and JD Log reported similar EBITDA margins in Q324, &amp; both enjoyed Y/Y improvement</li>
<li>JD Log appears far cheaper on EV/Revenue, perhaps due to its reliance on parent JD.com</li>
</ul>


SF's revenue base is far larger, and in Q324 SF's revenue also grew faster than JD Logistics
SF and JD Log reported similar EBITDA margins in Q324, &amp; both enjoyed Y/Y improvement
JD Log appears far cheaper on EV/Revenue, perhaps due to its reliance on parent JD.com


SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

<ul>
<li>October volume firmed, but price data is mixed; X-border activity trended stronger</li>
<li>ZTO's shares sagged after it reported weaker Q324 margins &amp; lowered FY24 guidance</li>
<li>Market leader SF Holding's long-awaited HK IPO should price &amp; begin trading this week</li>
</ul>


October volume firmed, but price data is mixed; X-border activity trended stronger
ZTO's shares sagged after it reported weaker Q324 margins &amp; lowered FY24 guidance
Market leader SF Holding's long-awaited HK IPO should price &amp; begin trading this week


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | October Volume Firmed | ZTO Disappoints | SF HK IPO This Week

China

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

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Yunda Holding (002120 CH)

Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

In this insight we outline the important 2025 themes & events facing the three sectors we cover in our monthly Tracking Traffic series: Container...

Tracking Traffic

China Logistics (Part 1): ZTO Has a Unit Economics Problem

ZTO faces increasing market share losses and margin pressure as competitors cut prices, leading to a more bearish outlook on the company's future...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

We offer a head-to-head comparison of SF Holding and JD Logistics, direct competitors in Chinese e-comm fulfillment that are now both listed in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | October Volume Firmed | ZTO Disappoints | SF HK IPO This Week

October parcel volume growth improved, but price data was mixed. The biggest news in the sector came from ZTO (weak Q3 numbers) and SF Holding (HK...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

In this insight we outline the important 2025 themes & events facing the three sectors we cover in our monthly Tracking Traffic series: Container...

Tracking Traffic

China Logistics (Part 1): ZTO Has a Unit Economics Problem

​ZTO faces increasing market share losses and margin pressure as competitors cut prices, leading to a more bearish outlook on the company's future...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | November Volume, ASPs | Review of YTD Performance (December 2024)

Year-over-year parcel volume growth and price declines both moderated somewhat in November. We believe most Chinese express companies are...

Tracking Traffic

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Head-To-Head Comparison of SF Holding & JD Logistics

We offer a head-to-head comparison of SF Holding and JD Logistics, direct competitors in Chinese e-comm fulfillment that are now both listed in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | October Volume Firmed | ZTO Disappoints | SF HK IPO This Week

October parcel volume growth improved, but price data was mixed. The biggest news in the sector came from ZTO (weak Q3 numbers) and SF Holding (HK...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO faces increasing market share losses and margin pressure as competitors cut prices, leading to a more bearish outlook on the company's future...