Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume</li>
<li>In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%</li>
<li>Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context</li>
</ul>


February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume
In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%
Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

<ul>
<li>Core Adjusted EBITDA margins worsened again in Q425, down -650 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>FY26 guidance calls for tepid volume growth (10-13% Y/Y), slower than in FY25</li>
<li>ZTO focus has shifted from growth to higher rates of shareholder returns</li>
</ul>


Core Adjusted EBITDA margins worsened again in Q425, down -650 bps Y/Y
FY26 guidance calls for tepid volume growth (10-13% Y/Y), slower than in FY25
ZTO focus has shifted from growth to higher rates of shareholder returns


ZTO Express Q425 Results | Margins Declined Again | Focus No Longer On Growth, Just Capital Returns

<ul>
<li>In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics</li>
<li>Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%</li>
<li>We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance</li>
</ul>


In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics
Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%
We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

<ul>
<li>Industry parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in Q425, but SF gained volume share</li>
<li>ZTO Express continued to report slow growth, insufficient to drive down unit costs</li>
<li>Did growth of Chinese "instant retail" impact mainstream express segment in Q425?</li>
</ul>


Industry parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in Q425, but SF gained volume share
ZTO Express continued to report slow growth, insufficient to drive down unit costs
Did growth of Chinese "instant retail" impact mainstream express segment in Q425?


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q425 Volume, ASP Data Show SF Holding Strength, ZTO Struggles

<ul>
<li>A new cross-shareholding agreement between SF and J&amp;T is a neat strategic fit for both</li>
<li>SF gains improved distribution in SE Asia (and beyond), J&amp;T gets access to X-border assets</li>
<li>Listed Chinese express names mostly unaffected, but deal challenges Alibaba, DHL, Flash</li>
</ul>


A new cross-shareholding agreement between SF and J&amp;T is a neat strategic fit for both
SF gains improved distribution in SE Asia (and beyond), J&amp;T gets access to X-border assets
Listed Chinese express names mostly unaffected, but deal challenges Alibaba, DHL, Flash


SF Hldg and J&T Announce New Cross-Shareholding | Good Strategic Fit | Losers Are BABA, DHL, Flash

China

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

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Yunda Holding (002120 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

Combined January-February parcel volume grew by <8%, continuing the trend of sub-10% growth seen in Q425. Under these conditions it will be...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q425 Results | Margins Declined Again | Focus No Longer On Growth, Just Capital Returns

On March 17 ZTO reported Q425 results that showed a steep decline in profitability, and a possible shift to higher rates of returns to shareholders

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

The monthly operating statistics reported by the four China-listed express companies for January look strange, and we believe they contain lots of...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q425 Volume, ASP Data Show SF Holding Strength, ZTO Struggles

China's listed express parcel companies reported highly diverse volume and price data for Q425. The numbers show strong share gains for SF Holding,...

Tracking Traffic

SF Hldg and J&T Announce New Cross-Shareholding | Good Strategic Fit | Losers Are BABA, DHL, Flash

A cross-shareholding agreement between Chinese express firms SF Holding and J&T Global could address each company's weaknesses outside of China....

Tracking Traffic

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