Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities fell this week, with the Nikkei losing 2% and Topix down 1.8%.</li>
<li>Japan’s entertainment stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, and there’s little sign of momentum fading. </li>
<li>Japan’s economy is heating up, and markets are taking notice. The 10-year bond yield has climbed to 1.29%, the highest in 14 years</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities fell this week, with the Nikkei losing 2% and Topix down 1.8%.
Japan’s entertainment stocks have been on a tear over the past six months, and there’s little sign of momentum fading. 
Japan’s economy is heating up, and markets are taking notice. The 10-year bond yield has climbed to 1.29%, the highest in 14 years


Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Palantir +24% as AI demand shows no signs of a slow down.</li>
<li>SMCI giving a business update to help one of Japan's worst tech performers?</li>
<li>Estee Lauder -16% as its Asian travel retail business continues to falter setting a bad tone for Shiseido and Kose.</li>
</ul>


Palantir +24% as AI demand shows no signs of a slow down.
SMCI giving a business update to help one of Japan's worst tech performers?
Estee Lauder -16% as its Asian travel retail business continues to falter setting a bad tone for Shiseido and Kose.


Japan Morning Connection: Big Capex Guidance from Alphabet a Positive for Semicap Related

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Stock Average declined 738 yen (1.9%) in the second week of January as heavy-weight stocks sell-off</li>
<li>Nintendo (7974 JP) ended the trading week marginally higher by 0.7% after a partial unveiling of its new Swich 2 Console. Less earnings cyclicality, but less upside?</li>
<li>The BoJ looks set to lift interest rates again next week, unless market turbulence following Trump's  inauguration, delays the inevitable</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Stock Average declined 738 yen (1.9%) in the second week of January as heavy-weight stocks sell-off
Nintendo (7974 JP) ended the trading week marginally higher by 0.7% after a partial unveiling of its new Swich 2 Console. Less earnings cyclicality, but less upside?
The BoJ looks set to lift interest rates again next week, unless market turbulence following Trump's  inauguration, delays the inevitable


Japan Strategy Weekly | Nintendo’s Switch and Trump’s Return

<ul>
<li>Japan saw big gains for SPE in the last 15 mins of trading on the TSMC capex outlook which should continue today.</li>
<li>Luxury names got a shot in the arm from Richemont numbers overnight so likes of Shiseido and Kose  may see a knee jerk higher.</li>
<li>Nintendo looks to have largely priced in the Switch 2, but upside remains for component makers.</li>
</ul>


Japan saw big gains for SPE in the last 15 mins of trading on the TSMC capex outlook which should continue today.
Luxury names got a shot in the arm from Richemont numbers overnight so likes of Shiseido and Kose  may see a knee jerk higher.
Nintendo looks to have largely priced in the Switch 2, but upside remains for component makers.


Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells household leisure equipment. The Company produces home use video game hardware and software products. Nintendo markets its products throughout Japan.

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Nintendo (NTDOY US)

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.

Mark Chadwick

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Nintendo’s Switch and Trump’s Return

Nikkei Stock Average drops due to heavy-weight stock sell-off, Nintendo sees slight gain with new console unveiling, BoJ likely to raise interest...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Gains due to positive outlook from TSMC should continue today, Richemont numbers may see Shiseido and Kose higher, component makers for Nintendo...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Strategy Weekly | The Entertainment Boom

​Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: Big Capex Guidance from Alphabet a Positive for Semicap Related

​Palantir surges on continuing high demand for AI. Estee Lauder sets a bad tone for Shiseido and Kose. Will SMCI business update aid the struggling...

Andrew Jackson

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Japan Strategy Weekly | Nintendo’s Switch and Trump’s Return

​Nikkei Stock Average drops due to heavy-weight stock sell-off, Nintendo sees slight gain with new console unveiling, BoJ likely to raise interest...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers...more for JP Also?

Gains due to positive outlook from TSMC should continue today, Richemont numbers may see Shiseido and Kose higher, component makers for Nintendo...

Andrew Jackson

Japanese equities fell this week, but Japan's entertainment stocks continue to surge amid a heating economy and rising bond yields.

Palantir surges on continuing high demand for AI. Estee Lauder sets a bad tone for Shiseido and Kose. Will SMCI business update aid the struggling...

Nikkei Stock Average drops due to heavy-weight stock sell-off, Nintendo sees slight gain with new console unveiling, BoJ likely to raise interest...