'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsumura-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8042:1" rel="noopener">Tsumura (4540 JP)</a> and our'Suga Short' recommendation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/602/original/2020-11-04_06-51-11.png?1604607954" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169602"></figure><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/169/603/original/2020-11-06_05-26-57.png?1604608032" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="169603"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>198 Quarterly Results</strong></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 43% Positive / 10% Neutral / 47% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.7 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.0% Quarter YoY / -7.0% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p>A<strong>verage Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 22%</p></li>
</ul><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>109 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 5% Neutral / 49% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 38% Positive / 7% Neutral / 55% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Aver<strong>age Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.8 points</p></li>
</ul>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS198 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 43% Positive / 10% Neutral / 47% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -9.0% Quarter YoY / -7.0% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 22%
109 Annual • 29 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 46% Positive / 5% Neutral / 49% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 38% Positive / 7% Neutral / 55% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Activist Murakami Group bought a bunch of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA (2432 JP)</a> last fall when it was cheap. Then they sold. Then they bought more. Now they have gone back below 5%. </li>
<li>DeNA sold a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo (7974 JP)</a> stake after that stock price fell, and in Feb26 announced a HUGE 1-year buyback. They'll probably finish this month, buying back 17% in 3+mos.</li>
<li>In the meantime, they have sold another asset. They're still cash-rich. And very cheap at an Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted EV/EBITDA of 2.2x. But they're really, really out of favour.</li>
</ul>


Activist Murakami Group bought a bunch of DeNA (2432 JP) last fall when it was cheap. Then they sold. Then they bought more. Now they have gone back below 5%. 
DeNA sold a Nintendo (7974 JP) stake after that stock price fell, and in Feb26 announced a HUGE 1-year buyback. They'll probably finish this month, buying back 17% in 3+mos.
In the meantime, they have sold another asset. They're still cash-rich. And very cheap at an Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted EV/EBITDA of 2.2x. But they're really, really out of favour.


[Japan Event] DeNA (2432 JP) - Big Buyback Accretion Means Really Cheap (Unlevered) Bundle of Assets

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s <strong>EURO STOXX 50</strong> and Japan’s <strong>TOPIX </strong>have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: <strong>Services, Communications, Industrials, </strong>and <strong>Transportation.</strong></p>

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/689/original/2020-08-20_08-32-43.png?1597879991" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153689"></figure><div class="content-caption">All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.</div><p><strong>BRUTAL</strong> - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/694/original/2020-08-20_09-02-34.png?1597881766" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153694"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/695/original/2020-08-20_09-03-07.png?1597881801" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153695"></figure><p><strong>TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS</strong> - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/153/727/original/2020-08-20_10-57-21.png?1597888653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="153727"></figure><p><strong>DAMN THE TORPEDOES</strong> - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.</p></div>

All charts sourced from Japan Analytics.BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit decline, the pace is more moderate than in the previous quarter. Japanese corporates are starting to engage in aggressive cost controls. As a result, an with no signs of virus abating or a vaccine being readily available, earnings will continue to decline in the current quarter. We have yet to reach a low point in this earnings cycle. Many companies delayed making initial forecasts for the current year. As that deficiency is gradually remedied, earnings forecasts are leading trailing results to the downside. The 'gap' for operating profits is ¥5.7 trillion, or 13%. A similar percentage fall applies to net income. Operating income is forecast to be 41% below the peak level of 2019; for net income, the decline is 57%. The aggregate forecast operating margin of 4.8%% is 294 bps lower than the peak, while the forecast net margin is 318 bps lower at 2.67%. If achieved, this outcome will exceed that of the 2008/9 financial crisis when the aggregate was negative. TTM RESULTS &amp; FORECASTS - Using trailing-twelve-month data to smooth out the seasonality in earnings, TTM operating income is 29% lower year-on-year on a 6% decline in sales. Running the same comparison using published forecasts, operating profit expectations are 40% lower than a year ago and revenues 10% lower.DAMN THE TORPEDOES - Our scoring methodology tracks all quarterly results since 2003 and every annual and interim forecast made since 2013. The lines above represent the cap-weighted aggregates of those scores overlayed with the daily series for TOPIX. Other than the three years before the advent of 'Abenomics' and the last six months, the directional correlation is clear.  Mr Market, supported by the BoJ and Federal Reserve, is 'banking' on a sharp and sustained recovery over the next two quarters. In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. We shall also review our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors and Companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 6th AUGUST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido (4911 JP)</a>, respectively - the latter as flagged in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shiseido-4911-jp-downward-revision-imminent" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41874" rel="noopener">Downward Revision Imminent</a>  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/081/original/2020-08-07_05-30-09.png?1596745840" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151081"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/082/original/2020-08-07_05-31-27.png?1596745907" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151082"></figure><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics<hr>
</div><p></p><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong> 64%</strong> of quarterly results,  <strong>78%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 79%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores and <strong>28%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>332 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score: </strong>29% Positive / 7% Neutral / 64% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.0 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue: </strong>-9.7% Quarter YoY / -3.5% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.7 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 28%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>121 Annual • 76 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 17% Positive / 6% Neutral / 78% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 17% Positive / 4% Neutral / 79% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -11.2 points</li>
</ul></div>

•BEST &amp; WORST 6th AUGUST •The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Square Enix (9684 JP) and Shiseido (4911 JP), respectively - the latter as flagged in Downward Revision Imminent  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.Source • Japan Analytics
DAILY STATSPERCENTAGES - 64% of quarterly results,  78% of annual forecasts/revisions and 79% of interim forecasts have negative Scores and 28% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.332 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 29% Positive / 7% Neutral / 64% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.0 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.7% Quarter YoY / -3.5% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.7 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 28%
121 Annual • 76 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 17% Positive / 6% Neutral / 78% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 17% Positive / 4% Neutral / 79% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.2 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 6th August - Nintendo, Yamada Denki, Terumo, Toyota, Shiseido

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nintendo (7974 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

• BEST & WORST • Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui...

Campbell Gunn

[Japan Event] DeNA (2432 JP) - Big Buyback Accretion Means Really Cheap (Unlevered) Bundle of Assets

DeNA is an interesting assortment of somewhat mundane businesses with a big pile of cash and securities. A buyback diminished that, but an asset...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 6th August - Nintendo, Yamada Denki, Terumo, Toyota, Shiseido

•BEST & WORST 6th AUGUST •The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Square Enix (9684 JP) and Shiseido (4911...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE

• BEST & WORST • Thursday's best and worst pairing is herbal medicine specialist Tsumura (4540 JP) and our'Suga Short' recommendation Mitsui...

Campbell Gunn

[Japan Event] DeNA (2432 JP) - Big Buyback Accretion Means Really Cheap (Unlevered) Bundle of Assets

DeNA is an interesting assortment of somewhat mundane businesses with a big pile of cash and securities. A buyback diminished that, but an asset...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Summer 2020 Results & Revisions Review

BRUTAL - The summer earnings 'season' reflected the broadening impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese and world economies, however, in terms of profit...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 6th August - Nintendo, Yamada Denki, Terumo, Toyota, Shiseido

•BEST & WORST 6th AUGUST •The 'best' and 'worst' from yesterday's large-cap announcements came from Square Enix (9684 JP) and Shiseido (4911...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 11/05 Tsumura, Sysmex, Terumo, Nintendo, MRE