Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch - its Over!</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo - Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX resumes rally as Powell Speech affirms 5% Peak rates;   Beta dominates as Energy and Tech lead; Oil rebound as EIA sees higher Oil +  Saudis lift prices
JAPAN.  NKY Futs -0.1% (flat) vs Cash;  Inbound headwinds as China excludes Japan from Group tours;  Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo/Switch - its Over!
DAILY NUGGETS. Nintendo - Game Over. Is our view.  The Switch is getting old and we are past the peak..


Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell - Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally as Tech rebounds;  Dovish talk from 2 Fed Members;  Google joins the fray slashing 12,000 staff; US Banks not far behind.
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; USDJPY 129.6;  CORE Inflation hits 4%;  Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy exit;  Japan courts global elite grads; Population declines in 2022
DAILY NUGGET.  Change of Direction with new BOJ Leadership? Ha, policy direction has already been decided, and whoever the Govt selects will just continue where Kuroda left off. 


Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; "Too Early for BOJ Exit"

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiei-kankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36539:1" rel="noopener">Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP)</a> , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and talked about valuations. In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO.
Daiei Kankyo is involved in the waste management and related businesses in Japan. The core of its operations consists of its waste management and recycling business
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and talked about valuations. In this note, we’ll talk about the trading dynamics.


Daiei Kankyo IPO Trading - Peers Have Been Correcting

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA (2432 JP)</a> announced in June a buyback programme to buy up to ¥15bn of stock over the next nine months. They are two-thirds the way through. </li>
<li>At current pace, they should finish by end-Jan or early Feb, then cancel 8mm shares, leading to a small TOPIX selldown <em>likely</em> in March or April. </li>
<li>The company remains cash and securities rich (net cash, after-tax value of securities, and equity affiliates are 100% of market cap). And growth lines will slowly claw their way positive.</li>
</ul>



DeNA (2432 JP) announced in June a buyback programme to buy up to ¥15bn of stock over the next nine months. They are two-thirds the way through. 
At current pace, they should finish by end-Jan or early Feb, then cancel 8mm shares, leading to a small TOPIX selldown likely in March or April. 
The company remains cash and securities rich (net cash, after-tax value of securities, and equity affiliates are 100% of market cap). And growth lines will slowly claw their way positive.


DeNA (2432) Buyback - Accretive on a Low Leverage Business Which Will Grow In Time

<ul>
<li>The share price is roughly flat since we turned Bearish on Nintendo citing concerns that the cycle had peaked</li>
<li>Q2 results released today suggest that the hardware cycle has indeed peaked – Switch hardware guidance cut</li>
<li>We see a lack of catalysts for the stock price over the next several months and remain bearish</li>
</ul>


The share price is roughly flat since we turned Bearish on Nintendo citing concerns that the cycle had peaked
Q2 results released today suggest that the hardware cycle has indeed peaked – Switch hardware guidance cut
We see a lack of catalysts for the stock price over the next several months and remain bearish


Nintendo (7974) | No Christmas Present This Year

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

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Nintendo (7974 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Peak Rates Still 5% Post Powell - Beta Roars Back; Inbound-China Excludes Japan

NKY indicated flate; Inbound headwinds as China exludes Japan from Group tours; Son skips Softbank brief in wake of Vision fund disaster; Nintendo...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | The Doves Strike Back; Google Joins Layoff Parade; "Too Early for BOJ Exit"

SPX +1.9% to close on highs; Beta-driven rally. NKY Futs +1.3% vs Cash; JP CORE Inflation hits 4%; Kishida: too early to discuss BOJ 2% policy...

Mark Chadwick

Daiei Kankyo IPO Trading - Peers Have Been Correcting

Daiei Kankyo (9336 JP) , a waste management company, raised around US$314m in its Japan IPO. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

DeNA (2432) Buyback - Accretive on a Low Leverage Business Which Will Grow In Time

DeNA (2432) is a nice pot of assets with a small business attached. It should be better. It appears to be on its way to getting better. It is very...

Travis Lundy

Nintendo (7974) | No Christmas Present This Year

Switch hardware forecast reduced by 2m units to 19m units. 2H Switch guidance -17% YoY implying a tough Christmas. Expect stock price to follow top...

Mark Chadwick

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