Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a> transaction is a little complicated, but the end goal appears, like before, to push operating control below holdcos on the chain. </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> and Dye &amp; Durham tanked over the unfortunate timing of an ACCC delay and MAC disconnect - before a price recovery to close the week.</li>
<li>MCB says the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger plan is bad, and now analysts say it is "underwhelming." Duh.  But the alternative? Underwhelming too, but less independent.</li>
</ul>


The NTT (9432 JP) / NTT Data (9613 JP) transaction is a little complicated, but the end goal appears, like before, to push operating control below holdcos on the chain. 
Both Link Administration (LNK AU) and Dye &amp; Durham tanked over the unfortunate timing of an ACCC delay and MAC disconnect - before a price recovery to close the week.
MCB says the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger plan is bad, and now analysts say it is "underwhelming." Duh.  But the alternative? Underwhelming too, but less independent.


Last Week in Event SPACE:  NTT, Link Admin, AGL, Mindtree/Larsen & Toubro, Sihuan Pharma

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nintendo results were in-line with both revenue and OP within 1% of consensus. </li>
<li>Guidance was extremely weak missing consensus by 5.5% at the revenue line and 20.5% at the OP line. </li>
<li>Nintendo gonna Nintendo so this is nothing to panic about but it isn’t positive either… though the stock split is.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo results were in-line with both revenue and OP within 1% of consensus. 
Guidance was extremely weak missing consensus by 5.5% at the revenue line and 20.5% at the OP line. 
Nintendo gonna Nintendo so this is nothing to panic about but it isn’t positive either… though the stock split is.


Nintendo – A Stock Split And Not Much Else

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Nintendo has announced in-line-ish results for March 2022, and quite disappointing forecasts for March 2023. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> called it on 30 March as a sell. Excellent timing. </li>
<li>Nintendo has a buyback tomorrow and if you don't like the guidance, you should DEFINITELY read on below.</li>
<li>But Nintendo also announced something truly extraordinary - a stock split. Everyone pooh-poohs the impact of a stock split but... in this case it is probably not nothing.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo has announced in-line-ish results for March 2022, and quite disappointing forecasts for March 2023. Mio Kato called it on 30 March as a sell. Excellent timing. 
Nintendo has a buyback tomorrow and if you don't like the guidance, you should DEFINITELY read on below.
But Nintendo also announced something truly extraordinary - a stock split. Everyone pooh-poohs the impact of a stock split but... in this case it is probably not nothing.


Nintendo (7974) - Earnings Forecasts⬇︎ Stock Split, Buyback, and HOW TO SELL WELL

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.</li>
<li>From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.</li>
<li>Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.</li>
</ul>


On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.
From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.
Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.


TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

<ul>
<li>Nintendo is up 25.2% since we turned genuinely bullish on the name at the end of Nov. </li>
<li>The weakening yen has helped significantly and should lead to a small overshoot on the dividend as well. </li>
<li>However, they just announced a delay of the Breath of the Wild sequel and we think this is a good time to take profit.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo is up 25.2% since we turned genuinely bullish on the name at the end of Nov. 
The weakening yen has helped significantly and should lead to a small overshoot on the dividend as well. 
However, they just announced a delay of the Breath of the Wild sequel and we think this is a good time to take profit.


Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

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Nintendo (7974 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Link Admin, AGL, Mindtree/Larsen & Toubro, Sihuan Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Nintendo – A Stock Split And Not Much Else

Nintendo results were ho-hum and while guidance was conservative it is unlikely to engender positivity. We are also starting to get concerned about...

Mio Kato

Nintendo (7974) - Earnings Forecasts⬇︎ Stock Split, Buyback, and HOW TO SELL WELL

Nintendo has announced in-line-ish earnings down from a year ago, but forecasts for March 2023 sharply lower than consensus. they have also...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Changes to the Topix FFW methodology will result in a turnover of 2.87% & trade of ¥2,285bn from April to June. There is a lot to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Nintendo – Take Profit

Nintendo is up 25.2% since we turned genuinely bullish on the name at the end of Nob but they just announced a delay of the Breath of the Wild...

Mio Kato

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