Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nintendo has announced in-line-ish results for March 2022, and quite disappointing forecasts for March 2023. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a> called it on 30 March as a sell. Excellent timing. </li>
<li>Nintendo has a buyback tomorrow and if you don't like the guidance, you should DEFINITELY read on below.</li>
<li>But Nintendo also announced something truly extraordinary - a stock split. Everyone pooh-poohs the impact of a stock split but... in this case it is probably not nothing.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo has announced in-line-ish results for March 2022, and quite disappointing forecasts for March 2023. Mio Kato called it on 30 March as a sell. Excellent timing. 
Nintendo has a buyback tomorrow and if you don't like the guidance, you should DEFINITELY read on below.
But Nintendo also announced something truly extraordinary - a stock split. Everyone pooh-poohs the impact of a stock split but... in this case it is probably not nothing.


Nintendo (7974) - Earnings Forecasts⬇︎ Stock Split, Buyback, and HOW TO SELL WELL

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.</li>
<li>From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.</li>
<li>Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.</li>
</ul>


On 7 April, the JPX announced the changes to the Free Float Weights (FFW) for the TOPIX Index. There are some big changes due to the updated FFW methodology.
From April to June, we see a one-way turnover of 2.87% and a one-way trade of ¥2,285bn. Some stocks have opposite way flows in different months.
Stocks with inflows outperformed stocks with outflows from Oct-Dec 2021 before giving up all the gains. These stocks have started to outperform and could continue outperforming over the next quarter.


TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nintendo is up 25.2% since we turned genuinely bullish on the name at the end of Nov. </li>
<li>The weakening yen has helped significantly and should lead to a small overshoot on the dividend as well. </li>
<li>However, they just announced a delay of the Breath of the Wild sequel and we think this is a good time to take profit.</li>
</ul>


Nintendo is up 25.2% since we turned genuinely bullish on the name at the end of Nov. 
The weakening yen has helped significantly and should lead to a small overshoot on the dividend as well. 
However, they just announced a delay of the Breath of the Wild sequel and we think this is a good time to take profit.


<ul>
<li>Recent hacks into Nvidia have resulted in leaks that have got the rumour mills churning again for an upgrade to the Switch. </li>
<li>Most details are similar to previous reporting by Bloomberg for the Switch Pro that was expected last year but failed to materialise. </li>
<li>However, the recent leaks point to a bigger GPU upgrade that previously envisioned and that has implications…</li>
</ul>


Recent hacks into Nvidia have resulted in leaks that have got the rumour mills churning again for an upgrade to the Switch. 
Most details are similar to previous reporting by Bloomberg for the Switch Pro that was expected last year but failed to materialise. 
However, the recent leaks point to a bigger GPU upgrade that previously envisioned and that has implications…


Nintendo – Switch Pro Leaks And Implications For Developers

<ul>
<li>Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.</li>
<li>In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. </li>
<li>Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.</li>
</ul>


Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.
In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. 
Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.


Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. globally develops, manufactures and sells home-use video game hardware and software in home entertainment business.  The company also produces home-game products including cards.

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Nintendo (7974 JP)

Nintendo (7974) - Earnings Forecasts⬇︎ Stock Split, Buyback, and HOW TO SELL WELL

Nintendo has announced in-line-ish earnings down from a year ago, but forecasts for March 2023 sharply lower than consensus. they have also...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX FFW Transition - Big Flows from April to June

Changes to the Topix FFW methodology will result in a turnover of 2.87% & trade of ¥2,285bn from April to June. There is a lot to trade on some...

Brian Freitas

Nintendo – Take Profit

Nintendo is up 25.2% since we turned genuinely bullish on the name at the end of Nob but they just announced a delay of the Breath of the Wild...

Mio Kato

Nintendo – Switch Pro Leaks And Implications For Developers

Recent hacks into Nvidia have resulted in leaks that have got the rumour mills churning again for an upgrade to the Switch. This opens up...

Mio Kato

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

The Bank of Kyoto (8369) model is clarified so dynamic hedging ratios depend on regional bank PBRs. The model suggests it's at the cheap end of its...

Travis Lundy

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