Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has decreased but remains high at 48% (80th percentile), reflecting persistent market uncertainty.</li>
<li>
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The volatility term structure is slightly inverted, and a pronounced smile in the skew favors call and put spreads.</li>
<li>
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in May, June, and December 2025 expiries, with a slight bias towards puts. Open interest peaking at out-of-the-money strikes for both calls and puts.</li>
</ul>



Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) has decreased but remains high at 48% (80th percentile), reflecting persistent market uncertainty.

Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: The volatility term structure is slightly inverted, and a pronounced smile in the skew favors call and put spreads.

Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity is concentrated in May, June, and December 2025 expiries, with a slight bias towards puts. Open interest peaking at out-of-the-money strikes for both calls and puts.


BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$1.53bn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 7.4%.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$1.53bn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 7.4%.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.</li>
<li>We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Giant Biogene Placement - Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> benefit; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> loses out.</li>
<li>The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a>. </li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Indexes has announced a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the next rebalance in June.

NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), NIO (9866 HK), New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) benefit; GDS Holdings (9698 HK) loses out.
The FAF changes along with capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of HK$34.2bn (US$4.4bn) at the June rebalance with the largest turnover for the Hang Seng TECH Index. 


Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

China

NIO designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles, including sedans and SUVs under its NIO, ONVO, and FIREFLY brands. The company also offers innovative power solutions such as battery swapping services and various charging options. NIO was founded in November 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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NIO (9866 HK)

BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease

Collectively, we expect more than US$1bn index inflows for NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), and NIO (9866 HK) from...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Giant Biogene Placement - Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

The big buys are up in the last week: NetEase (+3.75%), Baidu (+2.1%), Trip.com (+1.8%) while the headline indices are down: HSI (-1.1%), HSCEI (...

Brian Freitas

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BYD (1211 HK): Volatility Smile Signals Opportunity in Spreads

​Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...

Gaudenz Schneider

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease

Collectively, we expect more than US$1bn index inflows for NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), and NIO (9866 HK) from...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Giant Biogene Placement - Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Horizon Robotics IPO Lockup- US$7bn Expiry with Scattered Shareholding and Lots of CCASS Movement

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Hang Seng Indexes: FAF Methodology Change for Secondary Listings; Over US$1bn to Buy in NetEase

The big buys are up in the last week: NetEase (+3.75%), Baidu (+2.1%), Trip.com (+1.8%) while the headline indices are down: HSI (-1.1%), HSCEI (...

Brian Freitas

Implied volatility for BYD (1211 HK) remains high at 48%, skew favors call and put spreads, and open interest is concentrated in specific expiries...