Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Employment picture worsened in December. We believe Chinese government will erect hiring-related corporate subsidy in 2025;</li>
<li>Early attempts at street drink overseas have failed. But new attempts from Luckin might well work, over time;</li>
<li>Tesla's new Model Y received a raving reception from Chinese consumers. But we doubt it can last.</li>
</ul>


Employment picture worsened in December. We believe Chinese government will erect hiring-related corporate subsidy in 2025;
Early attempts at street drink overseas have failed. But new attempts from Luckin might well work, over time;
Tesla's new Model Y received a raving reception from Chinese consumers. But we doubt it can last.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

<ul>
<li>Despite wide market skepticism,  macro data pointed to shaky but persist recovery. If Trump Tariff 2.0 is delayed, a macro policy overdose is possible; </li>
<li>What does China's EV sector look like in 2025? Our take is robust growth coupled with continuous exits and consolidations;</li>
<li>Is reckless price war the inevitable China story line? Luckin, BYD and Xiaomi showed they want something different this week.</li>
</ul>


Despite wide market skepticism,  macro data pointed to shaky but persist recovery. If Trump Tariff 2.0 is delayed, a macro policy overdose is possible; 
What does China's EV sector look like in 2025? Our take is robust growth coupled with continuous exits and consolidations;
Is reckless price war the inevitable China story line? Luckin, BYD and Xiaomi showed they want something different this week.


[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

<ul>
<li>China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;</li>
<li>China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;</li>
<li>ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.</li>
</ul>


China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;
China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;
ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.


Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

<ul>
<li>
Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;</li>
<li>
EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;</li>
<li>
SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...</li>
</ul>



Macro: China may issue RMB3tn of special treasury bonds in 2025, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, 3rd highest in history;

EV: BEV sector showed renewed interest with (1) CATL made battery swapping move, (2) Xiaomi gained access to charging network of NIO, XPEV and LI;

SaaS: After making progress by its own, Beike terminated a major acquisition to save cost. Plus others...


China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.</li>
<li>The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hong-kong-the-glass-is-half-full-time-to-buy-beta" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:134396" rel="noopener">Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta</a> .</li>
<li>The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.</li>
</ul>


Although the tech sector in Hong Kong has surged over the last couple of weeks there appears to be minimal short covering in US-listed China tech names.
The performance of the "Magnificent 5" China tech names has led the rally as we outlined in Hong Kong: The Glass Is Half Full, Time to BUY Beta .
The combination of of large outstanding short positions and a significant underweight of HK/China in international funds will lead to further upside in the tech sector.


China

NIO designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles, including sedans and SUVs under its NIO, ONVO, and FIREFLY brands. The company also offers innovative power solutions such as battery swapping services and various charging options. NIO was founded in November 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Price Gauge
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NIO (9866 HK)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

This week's macro data pointed to gradual recovery. We also found new focus on profitability by leading companies, which is a good sign.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

​Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

This week's macro data pointed to gradual recovery. We also found new focus on profitability by leading companies, which is a good sign.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Growth Equity Weekly Wrap (52/2024): Positive Macro, BEV Revival & Good Time to Invest in SaaS

​China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HK/China: THE BIG SHORT (SQUEEZE)

Even though HK/China tech names have surged, short positions have not covered. The large underweight position in HK/China by international funds...

David Mudd

Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...

China plans to issue RMB3tn in special treasury bonds in 2025, BEV sector sees growth with battery swapping and charging network partnerships,...