'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/963/original/2020-02-15_09-46-55.png?1581796265" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117963"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>A YEAR TO FORGET</strong> - The aggregate earnings of Japanese listed companies peaked on December 26th 2018 and, over the last five quarters, have declined by ¥10.5 trillion or by 22%. Net margins have declined by 135 basis points over this period to 4.5%, 224 bps below the current operating margin. Whatever the uncertainties over the impact of Covid-19, the current quarter will see a further decline. A base-case outlook for aggregate Net Income is ¥30 trillion by May 2020, which, if the total market cap were to remain at current levels, would take the  PE to a ten-year high of 22.4 times. The decline in Operating Income has been more moderate at 11%, illustrating the still all-too-frequent write-offs that Japanse corporate routinely require as penance for their mostly-overseas capital misallocations.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/966/original/2020-02-16_05-32-51.png?1581798783" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117966"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/117/967/original/2020-02-16_05-28-20.png?1581798803" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="117967"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>ACCELERATING DOWNTREND</strong> -  Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Revenues are now declining quarter-on-quarter, and the pace of decline in Operating Income has accelerated for the fourth quarter in a row. The aggregate one year forward forecasts have seen falling QoQ revenues and OP since TTM-2. With only one month to go before the end of FY2020 for the majority of companies and with many December year-end companies looking forward ten months, a degree of optimism has slowed the pace of decline in the current quarter. We expect Covid-19 to result in many of these forecasts to be revised down at the interim results to be released in August. </p><p><strong>RECESSION</strong> - With GDP shrinking by an annualised 6.3% in the fourth quarter and Covid-19 having at least a similar impact in the current quarter, Japan will be in an, albeit 'technical', recession by the spring.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. Part 2 will update our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors, Peer Groups and Companies.</p></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsA YEAR TO FORGET - The aggregate earnings of Japanese listed companies peaked on December 26th 2018 and, over the last five quarters, have declined by ¥10.5 trillion or by 22%. Net margins have declined by 135 basis points over this period to 4.5%, 224 bps below the current operating margin. Whatever the uncertainties over the impact of Covid-19, the current quarter will see a further decline. A base-case outlook for aggregate Net Income is ¥30 trillion by May 2020, which, if the total market cap were to remain at current levels, would take the  PE to a ten-year high of 22.4 times. The decline in Operating Income has been more moderate at 11%, illustrating the still all-too-frequent write-offs that Japanse corporate routinely require as penance for their mostly-overseas capital misallocations.Source • Japan AnalyticsACCELERATING DOWNTREND -  Trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Revenues are now declining quarter-on-quarter, and the pace of decline in Operating Income has accelerated for the fourth quarter in a row. The aggregate one year forward forecasts have seen falling QoQ revenues and OP since TTM-2. With only one month to go before the end of FY2020 for the majority of companies and with many December year-end companies looking forward ten months, a degree of optimism has slowed the pace of decline in the current quarter. We expect Covid-19 to result in many of these forecasts to be revised down at the interim results to be released in August. RECESSION - With GDP shrinking by an annualised 6.3% in the fourth quarter and Covid-19 having at least a similar impact in the current quarter, Japan will be in an, albeit 'technical', recession by the spring.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes. Part 2 will update our Results and Revision Scoring for the market, Sectors, Peer Groups and Companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT'S A WRAP! Part 1 - 2020-Q1 Earnings Results & Forecasts

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We looked at what factors do the best in September in Japan and as you can see by the chart below found that longer-term price momentum  and positive earnings revision names tend to do the best. On the other side, Value (low PE and high dividend yield) names historically have not done well in September.  </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/032/345/original/1.png?1503958952" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="32345"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products </div><p><em><strong>Note:</strong> The IC is a ranked information coefficient or basically the correlation between the factor and price performance.   </em></p><h2>On the Positive side....</h2><p>We screened for names…</p>

We looked at what factors do the best in September in Japan and as you can see by the chart below found that longer-term price momentum  and positive earnings revision names tend to do the best. On the other side, Value (low PE and high dividend yield) names historically have not done well in September.  Source: Custom Products Note: The IC is a ranked information coefficient or basically the correlation between the factor and price performance.   On the Positive side....We screened for names…

Price Momentum and Earnings Revisions Do the Best in September / Value Does Not Do Well....

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<p>The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research programme, discussing key payment trends or developments in their respective research markets.</p>

The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research programme, discussing key payment trends or developments in their respective research markets.

Analyst Viewpoint on Consumer Finance : Japan

<p>In this second of a series of articles examining the FashionTech scene in Japan, Euromonitor International looks at Japanese FashionTech companies operating in BtoC areas, particularly via sharing economy and personalisation. For the first article, please click <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/can-tech-save-the-declining-japanese-apparel-industry-fashiontech-series-1-3" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>

In this second of a series of articles examining the FashionTech scene in Japan, Euromonitor International looks at Japanese FashionTech companies operating in BtoC areas, particularly via sharing economy and personalisation. For the first article, please click here.

Can Tech Save The Declining Japanese Apparel Industry? Fashion-Tech Series (2/3)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-deals/japan-s-nsg-seeks-support-from-fund-as-m-a-loan-deadline-nears" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-sheet-glass-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a> has been considering restructuring through delisting, following the receipt of over JPY300 billion in support from Apollo and a consortium of banks.</li>
<li>Post-Restructuring, NSG’s net debt/EBITDA ratio will decline materially. NSG will delist through a squeeze-out of existing shareholders at JPY500 per share, a 23.5% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>The squeeze-out price is low, below adjusted book value and recent highs. However, the EGM vote will pass, as post-restructuring, Apollo/banks will own more than two-thirds of voting rights.  </li>
</ul>


Nikkei reported that Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP) has been considering restructuring through delisting, following the receipt of over JPY300 billion in support from Apollo and a consortium of banks.
Post-Restructuring, NSG’s net debt/EBITDA ratio will decline materially. NSG will delist through a squeeze-out of existing shareholders at JPY500 per share, a 23.5% premium to the last close. 
The squeeze-out price is low, below adjusted book value and recent highs. However, the EGM vote will pass, as post-restructuring, Apollo/banks will own more than two-thirds of voting rights.  


Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP): Rumoured Restructuring and Squeeze-Out at JPY500

Japan

Nippon Electric Glass Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of glass related products.  The Company's products include fluorescent light tubes, lenses for light-emitting diodes (LEDs), ceramic integrated circuits (IC) packages, bulbs for cathode ray tube (CRT) displays, and precision sheet glass for liquid crystal displays (LCDs).

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Nippon Electric Glass (5214 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT'S A WRAP! Part 1 - 2020-Q1 Earnings Results & Forecasts

A YEAR TO FORGET - The aggregate earnings of Japanese listed companies peaked on December 26th 2018 and, over the last five quarters, have declined...

Campbell Gunn

Price Momentum and Earnings Revisions Do the Best in September / Value Does Not Do Well....

We looked at what factors do the best in September in Japan and as you can see by the chart below found that longer-term price momentum and...

Custom Products Group

Analyst Viewpoint on Consumer Finance : Japan

The analyst viewpoint series features interviews with analysts from several of the 46 markets covered in Euromonitor’s Consumer Finance research...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Can Tech Save The Declining Japanese Apparel Industry? Fashion-Tech Series (2/3)

In this second of a series of articles examining the FashionTech scene in Japan, Euromonitor International looks at Japanese FashionTech companies...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP): Rumoured Restructuring and Squeeze-Out at JPY500

The rumoured restructuring eases the debt burden. While the squeeze-out price is light, the EGM vote will pass, as post-restructuring, Apollo/banks...

Arun George

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