Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

Nippon Express Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nippon Express (9147): Elliott’s 5% stake highlights latent real estate value; focus on accelerating asset monetisation and capital efficiency </li>
<li>Plus Alpha Consulting (4071): Oasis building a meaningful stake in a small-cap SaaS name; thesis centres on sustained growth, margin strength, and potential strategic/M&amp;A optionality.</li>
<li>CSP (9740): Zennor pushing value realisation via capital returns and strategic optionality; deep undervaluation and excess cash underpin downside with potential for further activist involvement.</li>
</ul>


Nippon Express (9147): Elliott’s 5% stake highlights latent real estate value; focus on accelerating asset monetisation and capital efficiency 
Plus Alpha Consulting (4071): Oasis building a meaningful stake in a small-cap SaaS name; thesis centres on sustained growth, margin strength, and potential strategic/M&amp;A optionality.
CSP (9740): Zennor pushing value realisation via capital returns and strategic optionality; deep undervaluation and excess cash underpin downside with potential for further activist involvement.


Japan Activism Briefs | Nippon Express, Plus Alpha, Central Security

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A REIT is considering selling Morgan Stanley's European headquarters in Canary Wharf, London.</li><li>LaSalle has sold stakes in two multi-family properties in Shanghai to the China Life Fund.</li><li>China has approved its first commercial REIT IPOs, contributing to an $8.7 billion pipeline.</li></ul>

A REIT is considering selling Morgan Stanley's European headquarters in Canary Wharf, London.LaSalle has sold stakes in two multi-family properties in Shanghai to the China Life Fund.China has approved its first commercial REIT IPOs, contributing to an $8.7 billion pipeline.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (30-Apr-2026): REIT considers selling Morgan Stanley HQ in London.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).</li>
<li>The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are many stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn).
The adds have been floundering versus the deletes over the last few months and there could be some outperformance heading into implementation of the changes.


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.</p>

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• MARKET UPDATE •</strong></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/821/original/2021-01-28_05-31-21.png?1612123987" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185821"></figure></section><p><strong>PEAKY</strong> - Thursday's Vale Traded ratio was the highest year-to-date and the third-highest since the COVID-low of 13th March 2020. Down Volume reached 'Panic' levels and was the third-highest in six years. On the previous two 'Panic' days in 2020, this proved to be a buying opportunity. We are less sure this will be this case in 2021.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/822/original/2021-02-01_05-17-55.png?1612124290" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185822"></figure></section><p><strong>BOJ 'TAPERS'</strong> - The Bank of Japan, naturally intervened by purchasing ETFs but did not, however, raise its recently-reduced buying amount. The central bank also failed to intervene again on Friday, despite the sharp fall in the major indices. As a percentage of Value Traded, Thursday's intervention was the smallest in six years. With long-bond yields rising to a two-year high of 0.5%, perhaps their attention has been diverted elsewhere?</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/824/original/2021-01-30_14-31-02.png?1612124614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185824"></figure></section><p><strong>50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER?</strong> - As a result of Friday's decline, Total Market Value is poised to crossover the 59-Day Moving Average for the first time since 12th October - a further test of this bull market's resolve. As noted last week, 50/200-day moving average 'gaps' of over 60 are rare and normally occur at significant market tops.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/827/original/2021-01-30_14-45-46.png?1612124854" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185827"></figure></section><p><strong>RESULTS SEASON BEGINS</strong> - Since 15th January, 644 companies have reposted quarterly results. Although, as will be covered in the DETAIL section below, earnings momentum is improving. The aggregate net income forecast is above trailing net income, trailing aggregate operating, and net profit are both still declining.  Trailing and forward earnings multiples are still over 30 times, despite the 3.5% decline from the TOPIX peak on 14th January.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/831/original/2021-01-31_17-16-42.png?1612125298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185831"></figure><hr></section><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS SUMMARY - 29th JANUARY •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Of Fridays' 399 results announcements, 71% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.3% on average and a 1.7 point decline in operating margins - we are now well past the cycle low point for earnings. Only 11% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  The percentages for forecasts are less optimistic. Only 59% of forecasts and revisions scored positively, although the average score was +2.4 points.  Many large consumer-orientated businesses have yet to see a resumption of pre-COVID levels of activity.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our<strong> Best</strong> and <strong>Worst</strong> selection from Friday's announcements is the Diversified Freight Services Peer Group (which includes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamato-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2:1" rel="noopener">Yamato Holdings (9064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express (9062 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sg-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26070:1" rel="noopener">SG (9143 JP)</a>) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiichi-sankyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3014:1" rel="noopener">Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/843/original/2021-02-01_06-46-24.png?1612129615" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185843"></figure></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/185/846/original/2021-02-01_06-49-21.png?1612129775" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="185846"></figure></section><p></p></section>

• MARKET UPDATE •PEAKY - Thursday's Vale Traded ratio was the highest year-to-date and the third-highest since the COVID-low of 13th March 2020. Down Volume reached 'Panic' levels and was the third-highest in six years. On the previous two 'Panic' days in 2020, this proved to be a buying opportunity. We are less sure this will be this case in 2021.BOJ 'TAPERS' - The Bank of Japan, naturally intervened by purchasing ETFs but did not, however, raise its recently-reduced buying amount. The central bank also failed to intervene again on Friday, despite the sharp fall in the major indices. As a percentage of Value Traded, Thursday's intervention was the smallest in six years. With long-bond yields rising to a two-year high of 0.5%, perhaps their attention has been diverted elsewhere?50-DAY MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVER? - As a result of Friday's decline, Total Market Value is poised to crossover the 59-Day Moving Average for the first time since 12th October - a further test of this bull market's resolve. As noted last week, 50/200-day moving average 'gaps' of over 60 are rare and normally occur at significant market tops.RESULTS SEASON BEGINS - Since 15th January, 644 companies have reposted quarterly results. Although, as will be covered in the DETAIL section below, earnings momentum is improving. The aggregate net income forecast is above trailing net income, trailing aggregate operating, and net profit are both still declining.  Trailing and forward earnings multiples are still over 30 times, despite the 3.5% decline from the TOPIX peak on 14th January.• RESULTS SUMMARY - 29th JANUARY •Of Fridays' 399 results announcements, 71% scored positively for earnings momentum despite trailing revenues falling by 5.3% on average and a 1.7 point decline in operating margins - we are now well past the cycle low point for earnings. Only 11% of companies were in the red for the quarter.  The percentages for forecasts are less optimistic. Only 59% of forecasts and revisions scored positively, although the average score was +2.4 points.  Many large consumer-orientated businesses have yet to see a resumption of pre-COVID levels of activity.• BEST &amp; WORST •Our Best and Worst selection from Friday's announcements is the Diversified Freight Services Peer Group (which includes Yamato Holdings (9064 JP), Nippon Express (9062 JP), and SG (9143 JP)) and Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market + Results & Revisions Update 01/29

Japan

Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides freight vehicle transportation, railway transportation, air transportation, sea transportation, port transportation, warehousing, and other services. Nippon Express Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Nippon Express Holdings (9147 JP)

Japan Activism Briefs | Nippon Express, Plus Alpha, Central Security

Investors eye latent real estate value at Nippon Express, sustained growth at Plus Alpha Consulting, and value realisation at CSP through...

Mark Chadwick

Asia Real Estate Tracker (30-Apr-2026): REIT considers selling Morgan Stanley HQ in London.

A REIT may sell Morgan Stanley's London HQ, LaSalle has sold stakes in Shanghai properties, China approves its first commercial REIT IPOs, and...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market + Results & Revisions Update 01/29

Thursday's Vale Traded ratio was the highest year-to-date and the third-highest since the COVID-low of 13th March 2020. Down Volume reached 'Panic'...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Activism Briefs | Nippon Express, Plus Alpha, Central Security

​Investors eye latent real estate value at Nippon Express, sustained growth at Plus Alpha Consulting, and value realisation at CSP through...

Mark Chadwick

Asia Real Estate Tracker (30-Apr-2026): REIT considers selling Morgan Stanley HQ in London.

A REIT may sell Morgan Stanley's London HQ, LaSalle has sold stakes in Shanghai properties, China approves its first commercial REIT IPOs, and...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: 45 Adds; 39 Deletes; US$9bn Trade

There are 45 adds/39 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index resulting in a one-way turnover of 8.1% and a round-trip trade of JPY 1,424bn (US$9bn)....

Brian Freitas

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market + Results & Revisions Update 01/29

Thursday's Vale Traded ratio was the highest year-to-date and the third-highest since the COVID-low of 13th March 2020. Down Volume reached 'Panic'...

Campbell Gunn

Investors eye latent real estate value at Nippon Express, sustained growth at Plus Alpha Consulting, and value realisation at CSP through...