ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has a unique combination of different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia from corporate car rental, to car auction, and online marketplace but it is its end-to-end logistics business, and especially Anteraja, that is plugged directly into Indonesia's booming digital economy, that makes this an exciting story.</p>
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<section class="figure">Anteraja has expanded its coverage area significantly and is now present in 600 service points in 34 provinces across the archipelago.  It accounted for 47% of total sales in 1H2021 and is likely to account for more than 50% of sales by 2H2021.</section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> 1H2021 results saw the company's revenues grow by +50.4% YoY, with gross profit up +20% YoY, while operating profit grew +43.7%, and the company's net profit grew by +68.9% YoY</section>
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<p>In an interesting development, Anteraja, the last-mile delivery arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has announced partnerships with both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a>, to integrate both company's logistics services into its last-mile ecosystem.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> is a very interesting way to play the growth in the Indonesian digital economy through its exposure to logistics and the last-mile through Anteraja, which makes up close to 50% of sales, whilst its remaining business in car rental and car auction continue to produce stable growth.</p>
<p>The company trades on 42x FY22E PER and 31x FY223E PER but on 16.9x FY21EV/EBITDA and 13.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which is probably a better measure given that this is a growth company.</p>
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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has a unique combination of different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia from corporate car rental, to car auction, and online marketplace but it is its end-to-end logistics business, and especially Anteraja, that is plugged directly into Indonesia's booming digital economy, that makes this an exciting story.



Anteraja has expanded its coverage area significantly and is now present in 600 service points in 34 provinces across the archipelago.  It accounted for 47% of total sales in 1H2021 and is likely to account for more than 50% of sales by 2H2021.



Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) 1H2021 results saw the company's revenues grow by +50.4% YoY, with gross profit up +20% YoY, while operating profit grew +43.7%, and the company's net profit grew by +68.9% YoY

In an interesting development, Anteraja, the last-mile delivery arm of Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has announced partnerships with both Grab and Gojek, to integrate both company's logistics services into its last-mile ecosystem.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a very interesting way to play the growth in the Indonesian digital economy through its exposure to logistics and the last-mile through Anteraja, which makes up close to 50% of sales, whilst its remaining business in car rental and car auction continue to produce stable growth.
The company trades on 42x FY22E PER and 31x FY223E PER but on 16.9x FY21EV/EBITDA and 13.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which is probably a better measure given that this is a growth company.









Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - From the First to the Last Mile

Nippon Indosari Corpindo / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Indonesia's leading bread company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ)</a> announced a strong set of results for 1H2021 with net Income up by +33.2%, despite a -7.0% YoY decline in sales. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo( ROTI IJ)</a>'s 1H2021 return rate was improved to 10.4% versus 13.1% last year, as the company quickly anticipated changes in consumer shopping behaviour during the pandemic.</p>
<p>2Q2021 modern trade sales started to recover more than general trade, as the economy started to recover. The fact that malls have been shut in the latest emergency PPKM has been a positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk. (ROTI) (ROTI IJ)</a>. </p>
<p>1H2021 gross margin came under some pressure from rising wheat (flour) prices but ROTI was able to reduce overall operating expenses to offset this coupled with the fact that business no longer had the drag from SMFC in the Philippines.</p>
<p>An encouraging July 2021 indicates significantly increased sales per day for general and modern trade with sales per day hitting close to the record set in 4Q2019.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ)</a> remains a core consumer staples holding in Indonesia. It trades on 24.1x FY21E PER and 20.7x PER, with forecast EPS growth of +29.1% and +21.5% for FY21E and FY22E respectively versus its 5-year average forward PER of 27.7x, which looks relatively attractive.</p>

Indonesia's leading bread company PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) announced a strong set of results for 1H2021 with net Income up by +33.2%, despite a -7.0% YoY decline in sales. 
PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo( ROTI IJ)'s 1H2021 return rate was improved to 10.4% versus 13.1% last year, as the company quickly anticipated changes in consumer shopping behaviour during the pandemic.
2Q2021 modern trade sales started to recover more than general trade, as the economy started to recover. The fact that malls have been shut in the latest emergency PPKM has been a positive for PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk. (ROTI) (ROTI IJ). 
1H2021 gross margin came under some pressure from rising wheat (flour) prices but ROTI was able to reduce overall operating expenses to offset this coupled with the fact that business no longer had the drag from SMFC in the Philippines.
An encouraging July 2021 indicates significantly increased sales per day for general and modern trade with sales per day hitting close to the record set in 4Q2019.
PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) remains a core consumer staples holding in Indonesia. It trades on 24.1x FY21E PER and 20.7x PER, with forecast EPS growth of +29.1% and +21.5% for FY21E and FY22E respectively versus its 5-year average forward PER of 27.7x, which looks relatively attractive.

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - Oven Ready

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> continues to see improvements not just for its core car rental business but also for rapid momentum behind its move into the last mile through Anteraja, which looks set to account for more than 50% of revenues over the next 1-2 years and it has already broken even, earlier than expected.</p>
<p>A Webinar we hosted on Smartkarma with senior management revealed a positive outlook for the business on a number of fronts.</p>
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<p>Despite the impact of the pandemic, the company's car rental business under ASSA Rent saw very little fall out from the COVID-19 pandemic, with the overall fleet increasing by +1% last year and the company has also increased its team of drivers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has also developed a car-sharing App to help to better utilize the fleet, where cars are booked by individuals from its corporate clients.</p>
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<p>ASSA rent will increase the fleet further in 2021 by around +10% to cater for higher demand from government departments, as well as the economic recovery in the coming year. </p>
<p>The company's B2B used car auction business under JBA BidWin Auction had a very strong year in 2020, with volume growth of +30%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> also has a C2C car marketplace called Caroline, which deals with individuals for new and used cars, with financing as an option. </p>
<p>The backbone of the company's third pillar of business is ASSA logistics, which provides fleet management services, trip management, and delivery systems for its corporate customers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a>'s last-mile subsidiary is called Anteraja is the real future growth driver for the company with 300 service points in 34 provinces.  Anteraja partners with all the major e-commerce players but is also seeking to enlarge other segments such as B2B, C2C, and Social Commerce. </p>
<p>In 2020, Anteraja delivered 50m packages recording positive growth in its second year of operation by booking 300,000 packages per day on average by the end of 2020, allowing Anteraja to breakeven by the end of the year. </p>
<p>Anteraja has also launched a number of new initiatives including Bisnisaja, Travylite, and Titipaja, a self-developed e-fulfillment service</p>
<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> takes a positive view on the outlook for this year with positive expectations for revenue growth overall but with the real growth momentum coming from Anteraja.  It trades on 42.2x and 24.4x FY21E and FY22E PER respectively but should be viewed as a transformational growth story crossing into the digital ecosystem, with even higher growth potential in FY2022 according to management. </section>
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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) continues to see improvements not just for its core car rental business but also for rapid momentum behind its move into the last mile through Anteraja, which looks set to account for more than 50% of revenues over the next 1-2 years and it has already broken even, earlier than expected.
A Webinar we hosted on Smartkarma with senior management revealed a positive outlook for the business on a number of fronts.

Despite the impact of the pandemic, the company's car rental business under ASSA Rent saw very little fall out from the COVID-19 pandemic, with the overall fleet increasing by +1% last year and the company has also increased its team of drivers.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has also developed a car-sharing App to help to better utilize the fleet, where cars are booked by individuals from its corporate clients.



ASSA rent will increase the fleet further in 2021 by around +10% to cater for higher demand from government departments, as well as the economic recovery in the coming year. 
The company's B2B used car auction business under JBA BidWin Auction had a very strong year in 2020, with volume growth of +30%.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) also has a C2C car marketplace called Caroline, which deals with individuals for new and used cars, with financing as an option. 
The backbone of the company's third pillar of business is ASSA logistics, which provides fleet management services, trip management, and delivery systems for its corporate customers. 
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)'s last-mile subsidiary is called Anteraja is the real future growth driver for the company with 300 service points in 34 provinces.  Anteraja partners with all the major e-commerce players but is also seeking to enlarge other segments such as B2B, C2C, and Social Commerce. 
In 2020, Anteraja delivered 50m packages recording positive growth in its second year of operation by booking 300,000 packages per day on average by the end of 2020, allowing Anteraja to breakeven by the end of the year. 
Anteraja has also launched a number of new initiatives including Bisnisaja, Travylite, and Titipaja, a self-developed e-fulfillment service
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) takes a positive view on the outlook for this year with positive expectations for revenue growth overall but with the real growth momentum coming from Anteraja.  It trades on 42.2x and 24.4x FY21E and FY22E PER respectively but should be viewed as a transformational growth story crossing into the digital ecosystem, with even higher growth potential in FY2022 according to management. 












Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - To the Last Mile and Beyond

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> is well-known for its car leasing business in Indonesia, as one of the largest players in long-term car leasing through ASSA Rent, with around 13% market share. It is less well appreciated as a major player in logistics and for its technology-based express logistics company Anteraja, which services the booming e-commerce space in Indonesia. </p>
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<p>The company is also the no.1 used car auction player through JBA, with around 40% market share, providing a service for the majority of Indonesia's auto finance companies.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> also has a complementary C2C online marketplace selling vehicles, which is connected to its used car and auction business. </p>
<p>The company's core car rental business will see growth of +10-15% as the economy recovers but Anteraja will see stronger growth driving the top line to grow +25% in 2021. Management expects Anteraja to account for more than 50% of sales in 1-2 years. </p>
<p><span data-preserver-spaces="true"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> currently trades on an FY21E PER multiple of 20.1x and F22E PER of 16.9x, which does not look expensive given the potential digital transformation ahead. </span></p>


Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is well-known for its car leasing business in Indonesia, as one of the largest players in long-term car leasing through ASSA Rent, with around 13% market share. It is less well appreciated as a major player in logistics and for its technology-based express logistics company Anteraja, which services the booming e-commerce space in Indonesia. 

The company is also the no.1 used car auction player through JBA, with around 40% market share, providing a service for the majority of Indonesia's auto finance companies.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) also has a complementary C2C online marketplace selling vehicles, which is connected to its used car and auction business. 
The company's core car rental business will see growth of +10-15% as the economy recovers but Anteraja will see stronger growth driving the top line to grow +25% in 2021. Management expects Anteraja to account for more than 50% of sales in 1-2 years. 
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) currently trades on an FY21E PER multiple of 20.1x and F22E PER of 16.9x, which does not look expensive given the potential digital transformation ahead. 

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Auto Leasing, Logistics, and the Last Mile

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> continues to prove its metal releasing a strong set of 9M2020 results, which saw an across the board improvement in margins, despite a decline in sales.  </p>
<p>This was achieved by healthy contributions from all businesses, strict operating expenses control, tight Working Capital Management, together with lower leverage.</p>
<p>Petroleum volumes remained very healthy, with an increasingly diverse customer mix, whilst chemical volumes were slower given its more economically sensitive. </p>
<p>The company's JIIPE industrial estate (Jakarta Integrated Industrial and Port Estate) saw further land sales but we should expect further plot sales in 4Q2020 and a much higher number in 2021. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a> smelter is making progress with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chiyoda-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6232:1" rel="noopener">Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP)</a> appointed as EPC contractor and lease payments coming through on schedule. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a>'s retail petroleum JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bp-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21847:1" rel="noopener">BP PLC (BP/ LN)</a> is recovering with expectations of higher growth in 2021 and 2022. </p>
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<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a></strong> trades on 11.0x FY21E PER versus its 3-year average forward PER of 15.8x, with the expectation of +16.2% EPS growth in FY21E.  This is an interesting <strong>proxy for Indonesia's economic recovery</strong>, as well as a play on the potential pick-up in <strong>foreign investment on the back of the passage of the Omnibus Law. </strong></p>
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AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) continues to prove its metal releasing a strong set of 9M2020 results, which saw an across the board improvement in margins, despite a decline in sales.  
This was achieved by healthy contributions from all businesses, strict operating expenses control, tight Working Capital Management, together with lower leverage.
Petroleum volumes remained very healthy, with an increasingly diverse customer mix, whilst chemical volumes were slower given its more economically sensitive. 
The company's JIIPE industrial estate (Jakarta Integrated Industrial and Port Estate) saw further land sales but we should expect further plot sales in 4Q2020 and a much higher number in 2021. 
The Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US) smelter is making progress with Chiyoda Corp (6366 JP) appointed as EPC contractor and lease payments coming through on schedule. 
AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)'s retail petroleum JV with BP PLC (BP/ LN) is recovering with expectations of higher growth in 2021 and 2022. 

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) trades on 11.0x FY21E PER versus its 3-year average forward PER of 15.8x, with the expectation of +16.2% EPS growth in FY21E.  This is an interesting proxy for Indonesia's economic recovery, as well as a play on the potential pick-up in foreign investment on the back of the passage of the Omnibus Law. 


AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Great Omnibus Expectations

Indonesia

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk is Indonesia's largest producer and distributor of bread products, operating in Indonesia and the Philippines. The company offers a variety of products including white bread, sweet/filled breads, cakes, chocolates, milk, and jam under the Sari Roti, Sari Kue, and Sari Choco brands. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Bekasi, Indonesia.

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Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ)

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - From the First to the Last Mile

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a unique combination from different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia, directly plugged into the booming...

Angus Mackintosh

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - Oven Ready

PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) remains a core consumer staples holding in Indonesia, as the leader in mass-market bread, with new growth...

Angus Mackintosh

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - To the Last Mile and Beyond

ASSA saw growth in its car rental business despite the pandemic but its last-mile delivery business Anteraja is what will drive the long-term...

Angus Mackintosh

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Auto Leasing, Logistics, and the Last Mile

ASSA is Indonesia's leading B2B car leasing company moving aggressively into related businesses of auto auctions, logistics, and the last mile...

Angus Mackintosh

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Great Omnibus Expectations

AKR Corporindo is a key proxy for Indonesia's economic recovery and a play on the potential pick-up in foreign investment on the back of the...

Angus Mackintosh

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