Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We visited some paint dealers representing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akzo-nobel-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17499:1" rel="noopener">Akzo Nobel India (AKZO IN)</a>  to understand the current competitive intensity in the industry.</li>
<li>While three months is too short of a time frame to observe a significant change in industry structure, current signals seem to favor the incumbent. </li>
<li>Opus may influence dealers and painters, but what if consumers simply prefer APNT?</li>
</ul>


We visited some paint dealers representing Asian Paints (APNT IN) and Akzo Nobel India (AKZO IN)  to understand the current competitive intensity in the industry.
While three months is too short of a time frame to observe a significant change in industry structure, current signals seem to favor the incumbent. 
Opus may influence dealers and painters, but what if consumers simply prefer APNT?


India Channel Insight | Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Mindshare Master

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 38.9 million shares (including overallotment) and a buyback worth a maximum of JPY100 billion or 17 million shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, and Toyota Motor (7203 JP) are the selling shareholders. The offering aims to reconfigure the company's shareholder mix and reduce cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 8 and 10 July (likely 8 July).</li>
</ul>



Aisin (7259 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 38.9 million shares (including overallotment) and a buyback worth a maximum of JPY100 billion or 17 million shares.

Denso Corp (6902 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), and Toyota Motor (7203 JP) are the selling shareholders. The offering aims to reconfigure the company's shareholder mix and reduce cross-shareholdings.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 8 and 10 July (likely 8 July).


Aisin (7259 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>Since the US$535 million secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1" rel="noopener">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a>’s shares are down 15% from the undisturbed price of JPY3,320 per share (14 May).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Modec’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$535 million secondary placement announcement, Modec Inc (6269 JP)’s shares are down 15% from the undisturbed price of JPY3,320 per share (14 May).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Modec’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Analyst

Steve

<ul>
<li>According to public news, China is considering asking local governments to purchase significant amount of unsold homes in the country. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paint-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7387:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)</a> is a good proxy for exposure to China property with downside protection.</li>
<li>China made up 40% of Nippon Paint's operating profit (1Q24 numbers).  Nippon Paint is the absolute leader in decorative paint in China, with 25% market share in 2023 (TUC).</li>
</ul>


According to public news, China is considering asking local governments to purchase significant amount of unsold homes in the country. 

Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP) is a good proxy for exposure to China property with downside protection.
China made up 40% of Nippon Paint's operating profit (1Q24 numbers).  Nippon Paint is the absolute leader in decorative paint in China, with 25% market share in 2023 (TUC).


Nippon Paint (4612 JP):  Strong 1Q24; Overlooked Proxy For China Property

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1" rel="noopener">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.2 million shares (including overallotment). The largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-e-s-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2402:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui E&amp;S Holdings (7003 JP)</a>, is the seller.</li>
<li>MODEC's goal with the secondary offering is to reconfigure its shareholder mix to have a diverse base of shareholders who support its long-term strategies and a better tradable share ratio.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 22 and 28 May (likely 22 May).</li>
</ul>



Modec Inc (6269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 25.2 million shares (including overallotment). The largest shareholder, Mitsui E&amp;S Holdings (7003 JP), is the seller.
MODEC's goal with the secondary offering is to reconfigure its shareholder mix to have a diverse base of shareholders who support its long-term strategies and a better tradable share ratio.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between 22 and 28 May (likely 22 May).


MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering

Japan

NIPPON PAINT HOLDINGS CO., LTD. produces paints for automobiles, ships, and other industrial paints.  The Company also manufactures fine chemicals such as finishing agents and adhesives.

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Nippon Paint Holdings (4612 JP)

India Channel Insight | Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Mindshare Master

Exploring competitive intensity in the paint industry, current signals favor incumbent Asian Paints over Akzo Nobel India despite Opus influence...

Pranav Bhavsar

Aisin (7259 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 8 and 10...

Arun George

MODEC (6296 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

Nippon Paint (4612 JP): Strong 1Q24; Overlooked Proxy For China Property

China made up 40% of Nippon Paint's operating profit (1Q24 numbers). Nippon Paint is the absolute leader in decorative paint in China, with 25%...

Steve

MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Channel Insight | Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Mindshare Master

​Exploring competitive intensity in the paint industry, current signals favor incumbent Asian Paints over Akzo Nobel India despite Opus influence...

Pranav Bhavsar

Aisin (7259 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 8 and 10...

Arun George

MODEC (6296 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

Nippon Paint (4612 JP): Strong 1Q24; Overlooked Proxy For China Property

China made up 40% of Nippon Paint's operating profit (1Q24 numbers). Nippon Paint is the absolute leader in decorative paint in China, with 25%...

Steve

MODEC (6296 JP): A US$535 Million Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will likely fall between...

Arun George

Exploring competitive intensity in the paint industry, current signals favor incumbent Asian Paints over Akzo Nobel India despite Opus influence...