Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The continued drop in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sysmex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19333:1" rel="noopener">Sysmex Corp (6869 JP)</a>'s stock price leads to a high probability of deletion from a global index at the next rebalance in May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sysmex-corp-ffe73c3c-d212-47dd-bab3-0464ba1958fe" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26829:1" rel="noopener">Sysmex (6869 JT)</a> has materially underperformed peers over the last 9 months and trades at cheaper valuations. There could be upside in the stock after the passive selling is done.</li>
<li>Positioning in the stock has continued to increase over the last couple of months and could become overstretched if that goes on for much longer.</li>
</ul>


The continued drop in Sysmex Corp (6869 JP)'s stock price leads to a high probability of deletion from a global index at the next rebalance in May.

Sysmex (6869 JT) has materially underperformed peers over the last 9 months and trades at cheaper valuations. There could be upside in the stock after the passive selling is done.
Positioning in the stock has continued to increase over the last couple of months and could become overstretched if that goes on for much longer.


Sysmex (6869 JP): Positioned for Global Index Deletion

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time. The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time.  The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

The suggestion of government orchestration against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono</a>’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the Nikkei that the Japanese Health Ministry is considering setting rules on new drug usage during this fiscal year, starting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1">Ono</a>’s Opdivo and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091">Astellas</a>’s Repatha. Patients may be limited to those who can see certain impact from the treatment, which in turn would mean the drug could only be prescribed at those institutions with the facilities to check…

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the Nikkei that the Japanese Health Ministry is considering setting rules on new drug usage during this fiscal year, starting with Ono’s Opdivo and Astellas’s Repatha. Patients may be limited to those who can see certain impact from the treatment, which in turn would mean the drug could only be prescribed at those institutions with the facilities to check…

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Hogy Medical (3593 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Carlyle at JPY6,700, a 2.1% premium to the last close and a 69.2% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. 
Dalton (27.58% ownership ratio) has provided an irrevocable and will reinvest to take a 20% stake in the relevant Carlyle Fund. This is a done deal. 


Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kitazato-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45255:1" rel="noopener">Kitazato (368A JP)</a> manufactures and sells medical devices and products for fertility treatment. It raised around US$130m in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>Kitazato specializes in artificial insemination, in vitro fertilization, cell cryopreservation and reproductive engineering technologies in regenerative medicine</li>
<li>In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and the deal dynamics. In this note, look at the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Kitazato (368A JP) manufactures and sells medical devices and products for fertility treatment. It raised around US$130m in its Japan IPO.
Kitazato specializes in artificial insemination, in vitro fertilization, cell cryopreservation and reproductive engineering technologies in regenerative medicine
In our previous note, we looked at its past performance and the deal dynamics. In this note, look at the trading dynamics.


Japan

NIPRO CORPORATION manufactures medical products.  The Company's products include artificial dialysis and blood transfusion equipment, hypodermic syringes, and glass products for medical use.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nipro Corp (8086 JP)

Sysmex (6869 JP): Positioned for Global Index Deletion

Sysmex is a potential delete from a global index in May. The stock has underperformed peers and trades cheaper. There is positioning in the stock....

Brian Freitas

Death Rattle for Defensives?

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Opdivo Singled Out in Government Rule Change

The suggestion of government orchestration against Ono’s immunotherapy treatment Opdivo (nivolumab) has moved a stage further with a report in the...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): After Months of Speculation, Carlyle Lobs a Tender Offer at JPY6,700

The offer, resulting from an auction, represents an all-time high and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Dalton has provided an...

Arun George

Kitazato IPO Trading - Demand Was Strong

Kitazato (368A JP) manufactures and sells medical devices and products for fertility treatment. It raised around US$130m in its Japan IPO. In this...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)