IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since KKR's JPY4,750 preconditional offer was announced, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> shares have traded above terms on 75% of days, with the offer due to open in late October.</li>
<li>Pressure for a bump: Results beat guidance, peers have rerated, the offer lacks a control premium compared to peer multiples, IFA valuations look stale and competing-offer clauses.</li>
<li>However, KKR can likely close without a bump: minimum acceptance is within reach and could be lowered, no activist has emerged, an interloper looks unlikely, and the price is defensible.</li>
</ul>


Since KKR's JPY4,750 preconditional offer was announced, Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) shares have traded above terms on 75% of days, with the offer due to open in late October.
Pressure for a bump: Results beat guidance, peers have rerated, the offer lacks a control premium compared to peer multiples, IFA valuations look stale and competing-offer clauses.
However, KKR can likely close without a bump: minimum acceptance is within reach and could be lowered, no activist has emerged, an interloper looks unlikely, and the price is defensible.


Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Bump Pressure Builds, but KKR Holds the Cards

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.</li>
<li>Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.</li>
<li>Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.</li>
</ul>


So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the war enters its second month.
Asian countries are highly dependent on oil and gas shipments from the Middle East, with airlines, petrochemical companies, and gas distribution companies all negatively affected.
Iran now controls when the flow of energy from the Middle East starts and thereby when the war stops. Gulf countries will not allow Iran to be the Straits gatekeeper.


OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI lower with the US looking to impose global AI chip sales permits, although memory rallied in a general rotation to laggards.</li>
<li>Broadcom CEO throwing cold water on DC optical connectivity 'scale-up', sending Corning, Lumentum and Coherent lower setting a dour tone for JP cable plays.</li>
<li>Kioxia and PPIH make it into the NKY225, which Advantest gets capped as expected. Small surprise for Kioxia, but ADV is low for all.</li>
</ul>


AI lower with the US looking to impose global AI chip sales permits, although memory rallied in a general rotation to laggards.
Broadcom CEO throwing cold water on DC optical connectivity 'scale-up', sending Corning, Lumentum and Coherent lower setting a dour tone for JP cable plays.
Kioxia and PPIH make it into the NKY225, which Advantest gets capped as expected. Small surprise for Kioxia, but ADV is low for all.


Japan Morning Connection: Oil Spike Starting to Bite with Airlines Tumbling on the Outlook for Fuel

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.</li>
<li>Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).</li>
<li>The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, Germany, and China.
Our preferred Sector overweights continue to be defensives (Utilities, Staples, and Health Care) and commodity Sectors (Energy and Materials).
The secular bull market in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity index, WTI and Brent crude oil, etc.) remains intact, which continues to support our overweight recommendations on the Energy and Materials Sectors.


Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

<ul>
<li>The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.</li>
<li>It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.</li>
</ul>


The lows have likely been established for this correction, but a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows.
Japan's TOPIX and Nikkei 225 are each testing their respective downtrends. The EURO STOXX 50 is testing resistance in the 4040-4090 range. Germany's DAX is testing major resistance at 14,815-14,950.
It is likely that this initial 2-3 week bounce has run its course; stick with cyclical value and defensives, areas we have been focused on for most of 2022.


Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Japan

Nissan Chemical Industries, Ltd. produces a variety of chemical products, ranging from basic chemicals to functional chemical products.  The Company also manufactures agrochemicals and pharmaceutical products.

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Nissan Chemical Industries (4021 JP)

Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Bump Pressure Builds, but KKR Holds the Cards

The tender launch has moved to around late November, from early October. Approvals still outstanding: China’s competition clearance and Japan’s...

Arun George

OIL: When a Short-Term Spike Becomes Long-Term Reality

So far, global markets remain optimistic that the damage from the war in Iran will be repaired relatively soon; however, that will change as the...

David Mudd

Japan Morning Connection: Oil Spike Starting to Bite with Airlines Tumbling on the Outlook for Fuel

Shippers were lower globally after a slightly better day in Asia yesterday. Big drops for US airlines. Continues to look good for long 9202 ANA vs...

Andrew Jackson

Still Bearish at the Index Level; Remain Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors

Our outlook remains bearish at the index level as downtrends remain intact on the MSCI broad global indexes and also within Japan, Hong Kong,...

Vermilion Research

Sticking With Cyclical Value and Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology

Sticking With Cyclical Value & Defensives; Adding Large-Cap Japan Technology. 2-3 week bounce has likely run its course with $TOPIX $Nikkei 225,...

Vermilion Research

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