Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Buying the worst-performing stocks of the previous 12 months has outperformed Japan’s Topix index by an average of 7% annually for 9 straight years</li>
<li>For most of 2024, the strategy didn’t work, but an uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and merger talks is suddenly making it unsafe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Suddenly, dozens of previously complacent companies have the fear of God and are taking action to up their profitability and the market is taking notice. </li>
</ul>


Buying the worst-performing stocks of the previous 12 months has outperformed Japan’s Topix index by an average of 7% annually for 9 straight years
For most of 2024, the strategy didn’t work, but an uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and merger talks is suddenly making it unsafe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Suddenly, dozens of previously complacent companies have the fear of God and are taking action to up their profitability and the market is taking notice. 


2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 ended the week down 1.9% at 38,701, with investors cautious ahead of key central bank decisions</li>
<li>The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.25% on Thursday, deferring potential rate hikes amidst global economic uncertainty</li>
<li>Nissan's stock surged +24% this week following reports of potential merger talks with Honda and Mitsubishi Motors.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 ended the week down 1.9% at 38,701, with investors cautious ahead of key central bank decisions
The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.25% on Thursday, deferring potential rate hikes amidst global economic uncertainty
Nissan's stock surged +24% this week following reports of potential merger talks with Honda and Mitsubishi Motors.


Japan Weekly | Nikkei Slides Amid Cautious Sentiment; Nissan, Park24, Kadokawa

<ul>
<li>The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its historic losing streak to nine sessions on Tuesday, falling 267 points (-0.61%) to 43,449, marking its longest skid since 1978</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> are reportedly in talks for a merger. NIssan ADR up 11% overnight.</li>
<li>Oasis has emerged as a significant shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> . The company is currently subject to a TOB from CVC Capital Partners. </li>
</ul>


The Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its historic losing streak to nine sessions on Tuesday, falling 267 points (-0.61%) to 43,449, marking its longest skid since 1978

Nissan Motor (7201 JP) and Honda Motor (7267 JP) are reportedly in talks for a merger. NIssan ADR up 11% overnight.
Oasis has emerged as a significant shareholder of Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) . The company is currently subject to a TOB from CVC Capital Partners. 


Ohayo Japan | Nissan and Honda in Merger Talks

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We screen for Japanese companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Japan equity funds.</li>
<li>Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum: Nissan Motor Corp and Misumi Group</li>
<li>High Positioning coupled with High Momentum: ASICS Corp and Kyushu Railway</li>
</ul>


We screen for Japanese companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Japan equity funds.
Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum: Nissan Motor Corp and Misumi Group
High Positioning coupled with High Momentum: ASICS Corp and Kyushu Railway


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".</li>
<li>Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a></strong>merger affects Japan steel sector.</li>
<li>Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.</li>
</ul>


BOJ sows confusion with hawkish and dovish statements regarding its tightening policy. On a USD-basis the Japan market failed again to break its long-term resistance indicating a "Dead Cat Bounce".
Auto and Semiconductor sectors pressured by US trade policies and Trading Companies are affected by JPY strength.  US rejection of Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)merger affects Japan steel sector.
Higher domestic yields is a catalyst to reverse the large money flows from Japan during the Kuroda years.


JAPAN:  No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

Japan

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

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Nissan Motor (ADR) (NSANY US)

2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

2025 could be a banner year for turnarounds and value stocks as a spate of recent TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions have suddenly made it unsafe to...

Michael Allen

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Slides Amid Cautious Sentiment; Nissan, Park24, Kadokawa

Investors cautious as Nikkei 225 drops 1.9% ahead of central bank decisions, while Nissan's stock surges 24% on merger talks with Honda and...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | Nissan and Honda in Merger Talks

Dow Jones falls for ninth consecutive session, marking longest losing streak since 1978. Nissan and Honda reportedly in talks for merger. Oasis...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Funds: Extreme Stocks

We screen for Japanese companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Japan equity funds.

Steven Holden

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

2025 could be a banner year for turnarounds and value stocks as a spate of recent TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions have suddenly made it unsafe to...

Michael Allen

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Slides Amid Cautious Sentiment; Nissan, Park24, Kadokawa

​Investors cautious as Nikkei 225 drops 1.9% ahead of central bank decisions, while Nissan's stock surges 24% on merger talks with Honda and...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan | Nissan and Honda in Merger Talks

​Dow Jones falls for ninth consecutive session, marking longest losing streak since 1978. Nissan and Honda reportedly in talks for merger. Oasis...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Funds: Extreme Stocks

We screen for Japanese companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Japan equity funds.

Steven Holden

JAPAN: No Lifeguard on Duty, Swim at Your Own Risk

BOJ sends mixed signals on its pace of tightening as the JPY strengthens. Auto, semi and trading company sectors continue to be under pressure. A...

David Mudd

Investors cautious as Nikkei 225 drops 1.9% ahead of central bank decisions, while Nissan's stock surges 24% on merger talks with Honda and...

Dow Jones falls for ninth consecutive session, marking longest losing streak since 1978. Nissan and Honda reportedly in talks for merger. Oasis...