Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Home decoration consumption has been one of the few non-essential consumption categories to show consistent positive growth in the last few years. All types of brand and retailer have benefited but, since the start of the pandemic, it has been online stores and mass market retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> and the home centre retailers that have performed best. The boost from Covid aside, increased spending on home decoration is a long-term trend, supporting further growth for the leading retailers well into the future.

Home decoration consumption has been one of the few non-essential consumption categories to show consistent positive growth in the last few years. All types of brand and retailer have benefited but, since the start of the pandemic, it has been online stores and mass market retailers like Nitori Holdings (9843 JP),Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) and the home centre retailers that have performed best. The boost from Covid aside, increased spending on home decoration is a long-term trend, supporting further growth for the leading retailers well into the future. 

Japanese Interiors Market Reaches Record High Boosting Nitori, Muji and Others

Department store numbers have dropped by a third in the past 13 years to just 199 and another third are likely to disappear this decadeThe hope that many of these properties would find new life as shopping buildings is now looking far less likely and, with Covid worsening the problem, an accelerated hollowing out of central retail areas looks unavoidable in many small cities.We are likely to see department store numbers drop to around 150 over the next five years.The impact on both the department store sector and regional retailing is profound.

Department store numbers have dropped by a third in the past 13 years to just 199 and another third are likely to disappear this decadeThe hope that many of these properties would find new life as shopping buildings is now looking far less likely and, with Covid worsening the problem, an accelerated hollowing out of central retail areas looks unavoidable in many small cities.We are likely to see department store numbers drop to around 150 over the next five years.The impact on both the department store sector and regional retailing is profound.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yamada and Edion may finally be tying the knot, creating a ¥2.5 trillion electronics behemoth that could dominate a shrinking market – although Edion shareholder, Nitori, might oppose the deal.</li>
<li>But previous talks failed, and the initial announcement, while positive, doesn’t say a lot about how the new company will grow.</li>
<li>What it does demonstrate is just how fashionable M&amp;A has become across all formats and sectors to shore up share in a fast-consolidating retail market.</li>
</ul>


Yamada and Edion may finally be tying the knot, creating a ¥2.5 trillion electronics behemoth that could dominate a shrinking market – although Edion shareholder, Nitori, might oppose the deal.
But previous talks failed, and the initial announcement, while positive, doesn’t say a lot about how the new company will grow.
What it does demonstrate is just how fashionable M&amp;A has become across all formats and sectors to shore up share in a fast-consolidating retail market.


Yamada-Edion: The ¥2.5 Trillion Merger that Was Always Coming but Where Are the Benefits?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

• RESULTS - 31st MARCH •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/450/original/image_34417378121617226031453.png?1617226032" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198450"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics  </div>RESULTS - Only 5 out of nine of yesterday's results scored positively. The largest cap to report <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a> saw the largest negative change.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/452/original/image_17536353141617226688099.png?1617226688" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198452"></figure>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 31st MARCH •  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/451/original/image_60108354431617226572225.png?1617226572" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198451"></figure>FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 10 annual forecasts and revisions, only half scored positively. The DETAIL Section below focuses on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori (9843 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kawasaki-heavy-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8790:1" rel="noopener">Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankyu-hanshin-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13058:1" rel="noopener">Hankyu Hanshin (9042 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/453/original/image_25686156251617226730677.png?1617226731" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198453"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/454/original/image_94245619961617226769457.png?1617226770" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198454"></figure>

• RESULTS - 31st MARCH •Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics  RESULTS - Only 5 out of nine of yesterday's results scored positively. The largest cap to report Nitori (9843 JP) saw the largest negative change.• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 31st MARCH •  FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Of the 10 annual forecasts and revisions, only half scored positively. The DETAIL Section below focuses on Nitori (9843 JP), Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012 JP), and Hankyu Hanshin (9042 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​​​​31 - Nitori, KHI & Hankyu Hanshin

Penetration (the share of total retail sales) of e-commerce in Japan increased sharply in the past few years but still varies significantly by category.
The following insight looks at each consumer product category and how penetration has grown in the last few years and provides estimates of trends to 2025.
Even with these relatively cautious rates of growth, penetration rates are set to expand significantly in apparel, household &amp; interior, books &amp; media, and stationery but only retailers with form in successful online marketing will benefit from this with major negative implications for the many retailers that have failed to tackle the threat from online. This includes even major retailers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> which lags behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">  and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> in the race to lead the battle for leadership in online food retailing.

Penetration (the share of total retail sales) of e-commerce in Japan increased sharply in the past few years but still varies significantly by category.
The following insight looks at each consumer product category and how penetration has grown in the last few years and provides estimates of trends to 2025.
Even with these relatively cautious rates of growth, penetration rates are set to expand significantly in apparel, household &amp; interior, books &amp; media, and stationery but only retailers with form in successful online marketing will benefit from this with major negative implications for the many retailers that have failed to tackle the threat from online. This includes even major retailers like Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) which lags behind Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)  and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) in the race to lead the battle for leadership in online food retailing.

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

Japan

Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd., is based in Hokkaido and operates a furniture retail chain.  The Company sells living room furniture, storage furniture, dining furniture, office furniture, beds, and interior goods.  Nitori Holdings also sells original brand merchandise and imported merchandise.

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Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)

Japanese Interiors Market Reaches Record High Boosting Nitori, Muji and Others

The big home interiors retailers like Nitori and Muji as well as the home centre chains are doing well thanks to the expansion of the home decor...

Michael Causton

The Japanese Department Store Debacle

The Japanese department sector has been in retreat for a long time but the decline accelerated from the start of Covid. Unfortunately, an end to...

Michael Causton

Yamada-Edion: The ¥2.5 Trillion Merger that Was Always Coming but Where Are the Benefits?

Yamada and Edion merger creates potential electronics giant, maybe facing opposition from Nitori. M&A trend in retail market consolidation evident...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/31 - Nitori, KHI & Hankyu Hanshin

RESULTS - Only 5 out of nine of yesterday's results scored positively. The largest cap to report Nitori (9843 JP) saw the largest negative change.

Campbell Gunn

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

A review of online market share in all key consumer categories in Japan, with forecasts for e-commerce market share to 2025 –the sharp growth will...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Interiors Market Reaches Record High Boosting Nitori, Muji and Others

The big home interiors retailers like Nitori and Muji as well as the home centre chains are doing well thanks to the expansion of the home decor...

Michael Causton

The Japanese Department Store Debacle

The Japanese department sector has been in retreat for a long time but the decline accelerated from the start of Covid. Unfortunately, an end to...

Michael Causton

Yamada-Edion: The ¥2.5 Trillion Merger that Was Always Coming but Where Are the Benefits?

​Yamada and Edion merger creates potential electronics giant, maybe facing opposition from Nitori. M&A trend in retail market consolidation evident...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/​​​​​​​​​​31 - Nitori, KHI & Hankyu Hanshin

RESULTS - Only 5 out of nine of yesterday's results scored positively. The largest cap to report Nitori (9843 JP) saw the largest negative change.

Campbell Gunn

E-Commerce Penetration Increasing in All Retail Categories

A review of online market share in all key consumer categories in Japan, with forecasts for e-commerce market share to 2025 –the sharp growth will...

Michael Causton

Yamada and Edion merger creates potential electronics giant, maybe facing opposition from Nitori. M&A trend in retail market consolidation evident...

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 03/31 - Nitori, KHI & Hankyu Hanshin