Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Strong recovery: Q2 FY26 volumes up 23% YoY; margins steady at 38%, confirming operational strength.</li>
<li>Growth visibility: Expansion, slurry pipeline, and pellet plants drive FY26–27 capacity growth.</li>
<li>Deep-Value play: Trades at 10× P/E, 5× EV/EBITDA—half peer valuations, 5% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>


Strong recovery: Q2 FY26 volumes up 23% YoY; margins steady at 38%, confirming operational strength.
Growth visibility: Expansion, slurry pipeline, and pellet plants drive FY26–27 capacity growth.
Deep-Value play: Trades at 10× P/E, 5× EV/EBITDA—half peer valuations, 5% dividend yield.


NMDC Limited — Deep-Value Core of India’s Iron Ore Chain

<ul>
<li>Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.</li>
<li>Guidance &amp; Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.</li>
<li>Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.</li>
</ul>


Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
Guidance &amp; Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.


NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

<ul>
<li>NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at &gt;10% in FY26.</li>
<li>New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.</li>
<li>Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of &gt;30% provides downside support. </li>
</ul>


NMDC has aggressive growth plans to double its output over the next 5-6 years. Near-term guidance is also strong with plans to grow at &gt;10% in FY26.
New levies, delays in execution and lacklustre pricing outlook remain a key concern. However, well-aligned to surging demand from steadily growing domestic steel industry.
Valuations: Trades at 9x TTM PE which is a slight premium to 5 yr average. Stock offers about 4-5% dividend yield and has payout ratio of &gt;30% provides downside support. 


NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>NMDC’s Q3FY25 was largely in-line led by better than expected NSR on two price increases taken in prior quarter while volumes grew 5% YoY as demand started picking up.</li><li>NSR grew 11% QoQ to Rs5389/t; 5% ahead of PLe.</li><li>Cons EBITDA/t at Rs1,987 was tad weaker than PLe (Rs2,061/t) on higher freight and other expenses.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

NMDC’s Q3FY25 was largely in-line led by better than expected NSR on two price increases taken in prior quarter while volumes grew 5% YoY as demand started picking up.NSR grew 11% QoQ to Rs5389/t; 5% ahead of PLe.Cons EBITDA/t at Rs1,987 was tad weaker than PLe (Rs2,061/t) on higher freight and other expenses.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nmdc (Nmdc In) - Strong NSR Benefitted Q3; Uncertainties Ahead

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).</li>
<li>The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. </li>
<li>Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.</li>
</ul>


Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).
The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. 
Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.


Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

India

NMDC Limited explores for minerals. The Company is exploring for iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, and beach sands.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)

NMDC Limited — Deep-Value Core of India’s Iron Ore Chain

Strong operational performance and growth prospects drive a deep-value investment opportunity with steady margins and significant capacity...

Rahul Jain

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

Rahul Jain

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Rahul Jain

Nmdc (Nmdc In) - Strong NSR Benefitted Q3; Uncertainties Ahead

NMDC’s Q3FY25 was largely in-line led by better than expected NSR on two price increases taken in prior quarter while volumes grew 5% YoY as demand...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

We provide readers with an introduction to our initiation on commodities. We also provide a rationale as to how our coverage will be comprehensive...

Sameer Taneja

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NMDC Limited — Deep-Value Core of India’s Iron Ore Chain

​Strong operational performance and growth prospects drive a deep-value investment opportunity with steady margins and significant capacity...

Rahul Jain

NMDC Ltd (NSE: NMDC) – Volume-Led Growth Story with Re-Rating Potential

​NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

Rahul Jain

NMDC: Proxy to Rising Steel Demand with a High Dividend Yield.

​NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...

Rahul Jain

Nmdc (Nmdc In) - Strong NSR Benefitted Q3; Uncertainties Ahead

NMDC’s Q3FY25 was largely in-line led by better than expected NSR on two price increases taken in prior quarter while volumes grew 5% YoY as demand...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

We provide readers with an introduction to our initiation on commodities. We also provide a rationale as to how our coverage will be comprehensive...

Sameer Taneja

Strong operational performance and growth prospects drive a deep-value investment opportunity with steady margins and significant capacity...

NMDC's profit after tax has grown steadily over the last 3 years, with plans to increase production and expand capacity leading to potential re...

NMDC aims to double output in 5-6 years, with strong near-term growth plans despite concerns over levies and pricing. Stock trades at slight...