Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).</li>
<li>We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500).
We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on SPX.


Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Noble Corporation delivered a robust performance in its second quarter of 2024 results, reflecting a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous quarter.</li><li>President and CEO Robert Eifler highlighted the commencement of key contracts and the solid execution of shipyard programs as significant contributors to the company's positive trajectory.</li><li>These contract start-ups, particularly noted with rigs like the Noble Regina Allen and Noble Discoverer, underscored operational efficiency and led to an upward revision in EBITDA guidance to a range of $950 million to $1 billion for the year.</li></ul>

Noble Corporation delivered a robust performance in its second quarter of 2024 results, reflecting a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous quarter.President and CEO Robert Eifler highlighted the commencement of key contracts and the solid execution of shipyard programs as significant contributors to the company's positive trajectory.These contract start-ups, particularly noted with rigs like the Noble Regina Allen and Noble Discoverer, underscored operational efficiency and led to an upward revision in EBITDA guidance to a range of $950 million to $1 billion for the year.

Noble Corporation Plc: Enhancement of Fleet Utilization Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Noble Corporation's first quarter 2024 results reflect both strengths and areas of concern as they position themselves in a changing market landscape.</li><li>One of the key highlights from the quarterly review includes an adjusted EBITDA of $183 million, illustrating a 32% increase on a year-over year basis.</li><li>This growth primarily stemmed from solid operational uptime and a slight bump in marketed utilization.</li></ul>

Noble Corporation's first quarter 2024 results reflect both strengths and areas of concern as they position themselves in a changing market landscape.One of the key highlights from the quarterly review includes an adjusted EBITDA of $183 million, illustrating a 32% increase on a year-over year basis.This growth primarily stemmed from solid operational uptime and a slight bump in marketed utilization.

Noble Corporation Plc: Exploration & Production Contract Renewals & Other Major Drivers

<ul><li>Noble Corporation's Q4 2023 earnings revealed a steady operational performance despite certain headwinds.</li><li>Despite delays in contract commencement due to weather and permitting issues, the company achieved a Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $201 million, taking the full-year adjusted EBITDA to the top end of the guidance range.</li><li>Free cash flow for Q4 was $165 million, excluding asset sale proceeds, contributing to a solid full-year figure.</li></ul>

Noble Corporation's Q4 2023 earnings revealed a steady operational performance despite certain headwinds.Despite delays in contract commencement due to weather and permitting issues, the company achieved a Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $201 million, taking the full-year adjusted EBITDA to the top end of the guidance range.Free cash flow for Q4 was $165 million, excluding asset sale proceeds, contributing to a solid full-year figure.

Noble Corporation plc: Initiation Of Coverage - A Tale Of Increased Demand and Better Rates in the North Sea Drilling Market! - Major Drivers

<p>The S&amp;P 500’s steady uptrend remains intact. The large-cap (S&amp;P 500) vs. small-cap (S&amp;P 600) ratio is breaking out to multi-month highs; prompting our recommendation to shift to an overweight of large-caps. We are also seeing bullish price and RS inflections for developed int’l markets particularly due to strength in Japan, which helps support our bullish outlook for the U.S.  In addition to a complete strategy recap, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Energy and Transportation Sectors<em>.</em></p>

The S&amp;P 500’s steady uptrend remains intact. The large-cap (S&amp;P 500) vs. small-cap (S&amp;P 600) ratio is breaking out to multi-month highs; prompting our recommendation to shift to an overweight of large-caps. We are also seeing bullish price and RS inflections for developed int’l markets particularly due to strength in Japan, which helps support our bullish outlook for the U.S.  In addition to a complete strategy recap, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Energy and Transportation Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting to Large-Cap Overweight, Energy Improving

United Kingdom

Noble Corporation PLC provides diversified services for the oil and gas industry. The Company provides contract drilling services with its fleet of offshore drilling units located in markets worldwide.  Noble also provides labor contract drilling services, well site and project management services, and engineering services.

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Noble Corp Plc (NE US)

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish

Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way; IWM Holding Above $209; Still Firmly Bullish and Risk-On. $SMH $SOXX $TSM $NVDA $ARM $MU $KLAC $LRCX...

Vermilion Research

Noble Corporation Plc: Enhancement of Fleet Utilization Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

Noble Corporation delivered a robust performance in its second quarter of 2024 results, reflecting a 50% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to...

Baptista Research

Noble Corporation Plc: Exploration & Production Contract Renewals & Other Major Drivers

Noble Corporation's first quarter 2024 results reflect both strengths and areas of concern as they position themselves in a changing market...

Baptista Research

Noble Corporation plc: Initiation Of Coverage - A Tale Of Increased Demand and Better Rates in the North Sea Drilling Market! - Major Drivers

Noble Corporation's Q4 2023 earnings revealed a steady operational performance despite certain headwinds. Despite delays in contract commencement...

Baptista Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Shifting to Large-Cap Overweight, Energy Improving

The S&P 500’s steady uptrend remains intact. The large-cap (S&P 500) vs. small-cap (S&P 600) ratio is breaking out to multi-month...

Vermilion Research

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