Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move. While potential resistance levels exist, recent developments only bolster our already positive outlook.  In today's report, we highlight actionable setups within our global Technology, and Real Estate Developers and REITs Groups.

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move. While potential resistance levels exist, recent developments only bolster our already positive outlook.  In today's report, we highlight actionable setups within our global Technology, and Real Estate Developers and REITs Groups.

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Information & Communication Networks / Equity Capital Markets

ICN or Information &amp; Communication Networks is an upcoming IPO underwritten by Finansia Syrus. These guys are issuing roughly a quarter of their shares as future free float, and it will be a small cap trading on the MAI. If it trades in line with other small network contractors (but not this small!), its fair price would be Bt2.1/sh, but given its unproven status, we would only invest if the IPO price ranges between Bt0.83/sh to Bt0.96/sh yo.The company tries to piggyback on Nokia Siemens, a behemoth global network company where it has long-standing relations, though it has hedged its bets by doing some biz with Huawei and others too. Half of their business comes from public sector, but we're betting they can get something out of DTAC's rapid expansion should the 2.3GHz project go through as planned.

ICN or Information &amp; Communication Networks is an upcoming IPO underwritten by Finansia Syrus. These guys are issuing roughly a quarter of their shares as future free float, and it will be a small cap trading on the MAI. If it trades in line with other small network contractors (but not this small!), its fair price would be Bt2.1/sh, but given its unproven status, we would only invest if the IPO price ranges between Bt0.83/sh to Bt0.96/sh yo.The company tries to piggyback on Nokia Siemens, a behemoth global network company where it has long-standing relations, though it has hedged its bets by doing some biz with Huawei and others too. Half of their business comes from public sector, but we're betting they can get something out of DTAC's rapid expansion should the 2.3GHz project go through as planned.

IPO Radar: ICN, Nokia Siemens' Best Buddy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

I had the opportunity to talk to Ball Piya Jarumaneeroj, a college classmate and now CEO of Raytel, today. Raytel is a small telecom contractor and subsidiary of TKC (Turnkey Contractors). Currently, they are not listed but could become listed one day if they get critical mass. Anyway, the quasi-interview was more interesting for the topics covered and the fact that these guys are on the ground. Some of these topics included:<ul><li>Nascent potential of M&amp;A activity at DTAC (with Jasmine)</li><li>Impact of USO project and 2300 MHz spectrum on the sector participants</li><li>Views on True Visions’ long term decline</li></ul>

I had the opportunity to talk to Ball Piya Jarumaneeroj, a college classmate and now CEO of Raytel, today. Raytel is a small telecom contractor and subsidiary of TKC (Turnkey Contractors). Currently, they are not listed but could become listed one day if they get critical mass. Anyway, the quasi-interview was more interesting for the topics covered and the fact that these guys are on the ground. Some of these topics included:Nascent potential of M&amp;A activity at DTAC (with Jasmine)Impact of USO project and 2300 MHz spectrum on the sector participantsViews on True Visions’ long term decline

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Tejas Networks Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24188" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24188:1">Tejas Networks Limited (7177549Z IN)</a> is raising about US$120m from its upcoming IPO through the issuance of primary and secondary shares. Proceeds raised from primary shares will be mainly used for working capital and general corporate purposes.In this insight, we will review Tejas Network's business model, past performance, and government projects and initiatives in India's telecommunication industry. We will also run the deal through our ECM framework as usual and value the company against peers.

Tejas Networks Limited (7177549Z IN) is raising about US$120m from its upcoming IPO through the issuance of primary and secondary shares. Proceeds raised from primary shares will be mainly used for working capital and general corporate purposes.In this insight, we will review Tejas Network's business model, past performance, and government projects and initiatives in India's telecommunication industry. We will also run the deal through our ECM framework as usual and value the company against peers.

Tejas Network IPO Review - A Short-Term Bet on the Growth of India's Internet

Finland

Nokia Oyj is a global communications company. The Company produces a broad range of technological devices and software, and operates networks, sales ,and communication channels worldwide.

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Nokia Oyj (NOK US)

MSCI ACWI’s Advance Continues: U.S. And Emerging Markets Leading the Way

The MSCI ACWI advanced to another new high yesterday - to levels not seen since mid-March with the U.S. and Emerging Markets leading the move....

Vermilion Research

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

IPO Radar: ICN, Nokia Siemens' Best Buddy

ICN or Information & Communication Networks is an upcoming IPO underwritten by Finansia Syrus. These guys are issuing roughly a quarter of...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Raytel on Thai Telecoms

I had the opportunity to talk to Ball Piya Jarumaneeroj, a college classmate and now CEO of Raytel, today. Raytel is a small telecom contractor and...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Tejas Network IPO Review - A Short-Term Bet on the Growth of India's Internet

Tejas Networks Limited (7177549Z IN) is raising about US$120m from its upcoming IPO through the issuance of primary and secondary shares. Proceeds...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

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